[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.5.15
As of noon closing, the three major indexes opened mixed, and then showed a weak and volatile trend, with more than 2,600 stocks floating red, with a half-day turnover of 467.5 billion, a decrease of 59.5 billion from the previous trading day.
The market is like coming to a fork in the road, up or down, it really depends on how the next few steps go. If there is a strong black candlestick in the short term, then the top pattern on the daily chart may be on the horizon. However, the problem is that the various industry sectors are uneven, and it is not enough to collectively have a deep correction. As long as the market can firmly stand above the annual line, the rhythm of this shock is estimated to continue for a while. If the market tries to attack upward, the position of 3200 points is a hard bone, and if you want to break through, the key depends on two things: first, whether the trading volume can keep up and continue to expand; The second is whether the technology sector can gain a firm foothold, bring volume upward, and activate the enthusiasm of the market.
Considering all aspects, I think the market is likely to hover in the range of 3100 to 3200 points in the near future. Speaking of plates, the current market is like an electric fan in summer, the wind is in turn, but it will not blow long on either side. In terms of operation, you have to grasp the rhythm, absorb at a low level, and avoid chasing high, after all, this "electric fan" turns fast, and it is easy to eat wind if you are not careful.
For us ordinary investors, the most important thing now is to stabilize our mentality and not be carried away by the wind and grass of the market. First of all, pay attention to the volume and energy changes of the overall market, which is a key indicator of whether the market can be sustained. Secondly, as the vane of the market, the stability and kinetic energy release of the technology sector directly affect the market sentiment, so pay more attention to the dynamics of this area. Furthermore, diversify your investment, don't put your eggs in one basket, since it is now a plate rotation, you may wish to consider a balanced allocation to reduce the risk of fluctuations in a single sector.
In terms of operation strategy, stay patient, take advantage of market fluctuations to carry out low-absorption layout, and at the same time set personal risk tolerance boundaries and do not blindly chase up. Remember, the market is always moving in volatility, and the key is to find a rhythm that works for you and not let short-term fluctuations interfere with your long-term investment plan.
From the perspective of sectors, precious metals, real estate, and real estate services led the rise today; The CRO, medical services, and securities sectors led the decline today.
From the perspective of capital, 5G, electronics, and Chiplet are the main net inflows; The main net outflows of financial, non-bank financial, pharmaceutical and biological sectors.
From the index point of view, 800 real estate, real estate, real estate and other rights daily gains are the first; Biomedicine, securities companies, and auto indices were the last among the daily gainers.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, and 20-week moving averages are golden crosses; The MACD indicator is a golden cross, the red column is expanding, and the indicator line is running below the 0 axis; The golden cross of the KDJ indicator spreads upward, and the J value peaks; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the upper band.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 60-week moving average, exchanging time for space, and finally breaking through the pressure near 3130 points, and the technical upside space is open, but there are 120-week and 250-week moving averages above the suppression, which will be the resistance to the future rebound.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day, 10-day, 20-day moving averages are golden crosses; The MACD indicator is a golden cross, the red column is shortened, and the indicator line is running above the 0 axis; The KDJ indicator death fork spreads downward, and the J value bottoms out; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs below the upper band.
Analysis: In the short term, the index fell below the 5-day moving average, stepped back on the 10-day moving average, and the upward trend of the 5-day moving average also began to passivate.
【Fundamentals & News】
China and the United States will hold the first meeting of the China-US Intergovernmental Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence in Geneva, Switzerland on May 14, local time. (Artificial Intelligence)
According to data released by the China Charging Alliance, the number of public charging piles in mainland China increased by 68,000 units in April 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47.0%. (Charging pile)
Tesla's Shanghai Energy Storage Gigafactory construction project has completed the issuance of construction permits, which is Tesla's first energy storage Gigafactory project outside the United States. (Tesla)
The U.S. announced tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese goods, including 100% tariffs on electric vehicles and 50% on semiconductors and solar cells from 25%. (Electric Vehicles, Semiconductors)
· OpenAI has launched a faster and cheaper AI model to power its chatbot ChatGPT. (Artificial Intelligence)
Shanghai copper prices rose nearly 2%, approaching a new high this year. Copper prices have risen more than 20% since the beginning of January. (Colored)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.79, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Component Index: P/E ratio of 22.78, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 28.62, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 44.53, normal valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 12.18, normal valuation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.54, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 23.99, normal valuation.
【Plate Analysis】
New energy vehicles: the sales trajectory of new energy vehicles continues to show vigorous vitality, although April experienced a slight seasonal pullback, sales fell slightly month-on-month, but still maintained a strong growth of nearly three percent year-on-year, the upward momentum has not weakened since the beginning of the year, the cumulative sales of year-on-year growth is more than three percent, indicating that the new energy vehicle market is "leading" the entire automotive industry at a steady pace. This trend seems to confirm the previous market rumors that new energy vehicles are gradually occupying the core position of the market, and their influence should not be underestimated.
In particular, Chinese EV brands have performed impressively in Latin America, especially Brazil, with explosive sales growth that is an eightfold leap compared to the same period last year. This significant breakthrough in the overseas market not only demonstrates the international competitiveness of China's electric vehicle manufacturing technology, but also adds a strong touch to the global layout of China's new energy vehicle industry.
However, the international market is changing, the United States has recently released policy signals, hinting that it may take restrictive measures on connected cars from China, and trying to put pressure on China's new energy industry by exaggerating the "overcapacity" argument, and the policy has also landed today, imposing $18 billion tariffs on Chinese imports, especially electric vehicles from 25% to 100%! This trend reminds us that as investors, we need to pay close attention to the changes in the international political and economic environment, especially the potential risks brought about by international trade and technological competition, while grasping the broad prospects of the new energy vehicle field.
In view of the above analysis, the following strategies may be worth considering for ordinary investors who are concerned about the new energy vehicle sector: First, focus on companies with a global vision and diversified market layout, which can effectively diversify the risks brought about by policy changes in the single market through balanced development in different regional markets. Second, focus on companies with strong technological innovation capabilities and independent and controllable supply chains, which tend to show greater resilience in the face of external challenges. In addition, we should continue to pay attention to the government's policy guidance and support, especially in promoting green and low-carbon transformation and promoting the healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry, which may bring new development opportunities to relevant enterprises.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: None.
Ready to get off: S&P 500.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.