1. Good afternoon, family, the real estate sector is really too fierce, after yesterday's big rise, today it rose 3 points, why has the real estate sector continued to rise recently? How long will the market rise in the future, Dalong will immediately analyze a wave.
2. Why has the real estate sector continued to rise recently?
The rise in the real estate sector is mainly due to the recent lifting of real estate purchase restrictions in many places across the country, and at least 68 cities have launched policies related to "trade-in" for houses, and the policy has vigorously supported the recovery of real estate from all angles.
After a period of adjustment and bubble problems, the real estate market has gradually shown a trend of stable development. With the gradual optimization of the policy environment and the gradual recovery of market demand, the long-lasting depression in the real estate sector has finally ushered in the release, and the stock price has also risen.
Secondly, there are deep reasons behind the sharp rise in the real estate sector. On the one hand, the government's regulation and control policies on the real estate market have gradually shifted to the direction of stabilizing the market and promoting development, which provides a strong guarantee for the healthy development of the real estate market. On the other hand, with the continuous recovery of the economy and the acceleration of population urbanization, the demand of the real estate market continues to grow, providing a broad space for the development of the real estate industry.
In addition, the surge in the real estate sector also reflects investors' confidence in the real estate market. In the current global economic situation, the real estate market, as one of the important economic pillars, has attracted much attention for its stability and development prospects. Increasing investor confidence in the real estate market has driven the share price of the real estate sector higher.
3. How long will the real estate sector rise?
From a technical point of view, real estate has risen continuously recently, and the current daily chart has approached the 120-day moving average resistance
Recently, 20 of the country's 29 major cities, including Nanjing, Hefei, Jinan, Qingdao, Wuhan, Wuxi, and Ningbo, have completely lifted the housing purchase restriction policy. Cities such as Shanghai, Suzhou and Guangzhou announced in early 2024 that they would relax their purchase restriction policies, among which Shanghai would open up the purchase of houses by non-registered singles outside the outer ring road, Suzhou would fully relax the purchase restriction policy, and Guangzhou would announce that there would be no restrictions on the purchase of units over 120 square meters in the city. In less than two months, Hangzhou once again issued a new policy for the property market, completely canceling purchase restrictions, optimizing the supply of residential land, strengthening housing credit support, optimizing the points settlement policy, and promoting the supply of high-quality housing. Qinhuangdao has abolished the "purchase restriction order", and the third- and fourth-tier cities have entered the ranks of bailouts, which indicates that the wave of property market purchase restrictions and unsealing may be spreading to more cities. Changsha City has introduced a new policy to completely cancel the purchase restriction and promote the trade-in, while the amount of provident fund loans has been raised, and the support for three-child families to buy houses has been increased
How long can the property sector rebound? Answer: The last day when the purchase restriction in the new first-tier cities will be lifted. Of course, the timing will not be so accurate, and the market will have a front-running and overdue reaction time. The basis for the judgment is that the current new increase in real estate cannot make up for the sky-high debt they owe
If you watch the news, you will find that recently the price of train tickets has been rising, and the cost of water, electricity, gas, etc. has also increased. These industries related to people's livelihood were previously cheap due to financial subsidies. When fiscal revenues cannot be supported, the abolition of subsidies becomes inevitable, and price increases are inevitable, and the era of large-scale local financial subsidies for public services has passed.
The spin-off effect of the housing crisis has been the rise in the price of public services. To a certain extent, the low price of public services in the process of large-scale urbanization in the past decade or so has been paid for the whole society by buyers who have mortgages, and now that this money is gone, public services will naturally slowly return to their proper prices
In a word, there are still a number of first-tier cities that have not lifted the purchase restrictions, and the real estate sector will still have a wave of rise after these are lifted.
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