MPV with a large space may not necessarily sell well, but A MPV that sells well must have a large space.
Large space does not only mean the rear leg space, but also a three-dimensional three-dimensional space that includes the second and third rows. In addition, the passage space into the third row, the trunk space under the use of all three rows of seats, the expandable space of the trunk, and the ability to change the combination of space are also necessary conditions for an MPV to sell well.
Because if it's not for space, why not buy a better-looking, more practical, same-size SUV that doesn't drive like a driver?
Therefore, MPV will inevitably develop in the direction of medium and large, high-end, in turn, the expected price of consumers who buy MPV will become higher, and the requirements for product strength are also increasing.
In 2021, MPV above 200,000 yuan has reached 41.5% of the MPV market, which is the largest market segment of MPV. At the same time, since the second half of last year, a number of high-end MPV new cars have been listed, and the original pattern of Buick GL8 has become a super strong market share battle.
Among them, there are both kussuit, which is cut in with high cost performance, and there is also a comprehensive improvement of the major revamp odyssey/Alexon, and the most discussed is undoubtedly the crazy price increase and the toyota Saina with both product power.
After half a year, let's look at the pattern of the high-end MPV market, whether this "high-potential" market really thrives as imagined, has the market pattern changed because of the entry of many new products, and is the sales of those high-topic models directly proportional to the heat?
High-end MPV market capacity is not growing?
The high-end MPV market looks lively, but if you look at the sales trend, you will find a helpless reality: this hilarity is still only on the keyboard.
From 2020 to 2022, the monthly sales volume of the MPV market of more than 200,000 yuan has always been in the range of 30,000-40,000 vehicles, even when new products were intensively listed in the second half of last year, there was no obvious incremental trend.
There are several reasons for this:
1. High-end MPV consumers are niche, solidified and pragmatic
Consumers who buy high-end MPV, most of them are the purchase of middle-class or above families, consumer demand is obviously not to seek innovation, to seek differences, but to seek stability, experience, reputation, decision-making constraints, long decision-making cycle, and cool functions that have nothing to do with functionality are not cold. This determines that the cultivation time of new products in the high-end MPV market will be longer than that of SUVs at the same price, and the feedback received on sales will lag behind.
2. The increment of new products on the market is limited
Although there are many new products, Kustu and Jawa are limited by the brand influence and the communication effect of the new models, and the net increment provided is limited. Although the products of Odyssey and Alexand have been greatly improved after the revision, the consumption base has not changed, and sales will be affected by the fluctuation of model switching. The Xena, which is most likely to stir up the high-end MPV market pattern, did not start delivering until the end of December after the listing in October, and the phenomenon of price increases also intensified the wait-and-see attitude of consumers.
3. Sales of bellwethers declined
In the second half of last year, the Buick GL8, the leader in the high-end MPV market, fell to the level of more than 10,000 units per month, compared with 15,000-16,000 units. This market gap of about 5,000 units has almost erased the increase in the number of new products on the market.
The high-end MPV market has a strong inertia, and the consumer population is relatively concentrated, and it will not easily change because of the listing of a new product. This means that the product starting point of all high-end MPV models is to identify the needs of the base plate crowd and serve the people who really want to buy high-end MPV well, rather than focusing on the unrealistic idea of grabbing the market share of the seven-seat SUV.
Who is the dark horse in the high-end MPV market?
We set our sights first on Xena, the most talked about.
From January to February this year, Xena's terminal sales were around 4,000 vehicles, which is also the average monthly sales level of Odyssey and Alexon last year. Among them, in February, Xena's sales were second only to the Buick GL8, ranking second in the high-end MPV market.
Although the price increase phenomenon of Xena was once crazy, the first batch of people to buy Xena were either not poor money public, or wanted to get the car as soon as possible for interior modification and rental commercialization, and they were not sensitive to price, which supported Xena's initial order. However, as Xena begins to face more ordinary home users, the price increase is also decreasing, and the conversion effect of this wait-and-see user will also be reflected in subsequent sales.
Just look at the product strength, Sai Na is a very suitable for the use of the big family full scene of the MPV, Toyota's brand influence in the MPV field, but also enough to save xena a lot of communication tongue. Here is a digression, after the listing of domestic Xena, parallel imports of SIENNA still maintain a stable sales level, and even in January this year there was a peak of sales exceeding 1,000.
Moreover, half of the sales of Buick GL8 come from East China, and South China is its relatively weak link, accounting for only about 6% of sales. In contrast, Xena, South China is one of its important strong points, more than 1/5 of the sales from South China, the absolute amount is 1.8 times that of buick GL8, higher than the combined sales of Odyssey + Alexandre. That is to say, if the terminal mark-up phenomenon of Xena is significantly alleviated next, it is fully capable of gradually accumulating by covering the weak market of Buick GL8.
However, there is another potential dark horse in the high-end MPV market, that is, Kustu. This Korean MPV, which does not have a lot of sound, sold more than 1,000 terminals in the second month of its listing, and exceeded the 2,000 mark in the third month. The price of 170,000-220,000 yuan in Kustu is almost the lowest in the joint venture high-end MPV market, but at about 200,000 yuan, Kustu still provides a high-perception configuration including electric sliding doors, full-featured seats in the rear row, and table boards, which is a pure cost-effective fighting route, which is unique in the high-end MPV products of the joint venture brand, but the market has also given positive feedback.
However, the sustainability of The korean series' past cost-effective models is not optimistic, and the upper limit of the market space of Kustu is also easy to see, and it can maintain an average monthly sales volume of 2,000+ is already very impressive.
Who else is going to compete for share?
The high-end MPV market in 2022 still continues the peak trend of new products since the second half of last year, and it is a big year for products.
Judging from the information that has been reported so far, the joint venture brand FAW Toyota will launch the sister model GRANVIA of Xena, the independent car companies Zhongwei Brand, SAIC Maxus and BYD will launch a large-size MPV this year, and the second model of the new forces, Extreme Kr and Lantu, will also choose high-end MPV. At the same time, it is reported that Ideal will launch a pure electric and extended range high-end MPV in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
That is to say, after the completion of this round of joint venture brands, many Chinese local brands have also set their sights on this blank market. Among these products, hybrid, extended range, electric, power system selection is large, seven, six, four, the target group is basically included.
But this market is not large, every month is the level of 30,000 or 40,000 vehicles. The number of products today has almost doubled compared to 2020, but the market capacity will not double with it. Moreover, consumers in this market are far less like cars or SUVs, so eager for the arrival of new products, and are as cold as the gimmick function of new products. What can impress consumers is the core elements of function, experience and word of mouth.
However, it is undeniable that this market segment, which was dominated by the Buick GL8 for nearly 20 years, and is also almost the last high-profit market in mainstream cars, has more vitality. Even if the mouth does not admit it, the pressure of the GL8 is real. Whether sales are beginning to be diverted or the space for market re-segmentation is squeezed, GL8 can no longer make money lying down, at least in the field of high-end family cars, the threat is already real. Therefore, in 2022, the replacement car of the Buick GL8 is particularly important.
Write at the end
We can list on paper the potential of many high-end MPV markets: three-child liberalization, consumption upgrades, large family travel concepts, purchase trends... However, paper is only paper after all. In this inertial market, in fact, there is not much room to try, if the initial product has influence, indicating that the potential consumption pain points have been hit, the follow-up market will be relatively easy to roll out; if the product is not open to the situation, then the possibility of follow-up by communication and promotion is minimal, at this time can not be the head iron, but to fundamentally reflect on the product definition in an all-round way.
This is the harsh reality of the high-end MPV market, and it is also the psychological preparation that all latecomers should be prepared for.