Recently, a paper published in Nature found that although hydrogen fuel has the advantage of zero emissions, in theory, it can be used as a perfect solution to carbon emissions in the transportation sector.
Unfortunately, the urgency of climate change does not give hydrogen fuel cell vehicles enough time to commercialize. Both the industry and policy makers need to focus on the direction of pure electric vehicles.
As a clean energy source, hydrogen has always been given high hopes, and it is considered to be one of the best solutions for carbon emissions in the transportation sector, and many car companies, led by Toyota, have also invested considerable research and developed vehicles equipped with hydrogen fuel cells. This study in Nature really poured a large basin of cold water on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles!
The study pointed out that hydrogen fuel cells have three major drawbacks in terms of commercial discourse, and finally, the authors directly concluded that hydrogen fuel cells have completely lost opportunities in business. The authors of the paper did not question the technical feasibility of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, but judged that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have no future from the following three aspects.
First of all, the technological development of power batteries has squeezed the living space of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. With the development of technology, the current mainstream power battery, the endurance of more than 400 kilometers has been the norm, the latest power battery, even has exceeded 1000 kilometers; in terms of energy replenishment time, 800V overshoot, can be charged in 15 minutes for 200 kilometers. Therefore, the advantages of hydrogen fuel cells in longer range and faster energy replenishment have become more and more insufficient.
As for the heavy-duty truck logistics transportation direction that has advantages in hydrogen fuel cells, pure electric heavy-duty trucks can also complete the make-up, the author said, trucks used for long-distance transportation, driving more than 500 kilometers per day, which is a challenge for the endurance of pure electric heavy trucks. But European regulations require truck drivers to stop for 45 minutes after every 4.5 hours of travel. In 4.5 hours, a heavy truck can travel up to 400 kilometers or so. There are similar regulations in China, and there are similar regulations: driving for 4 hours continuously, you must rest for 20 minutes. Therefore, if the fast-charging battery used for pure electric trucks, as well as the energy replenishment network can be rolled out on a large scale, the endurance of 450 kilometers is enough for pure electric heavy trucks.
Secondly, compared with the landing speed of pure electric vehicles, the timeline of global carbon emissions has not given hydrogen fuel cell vehicles enough time to solve cost and technical problems and finally complete commercialization. According to the data, at the beginning of 2021, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the world was only 25,000, and there were about 540 hydrogen refueling stations. In contrast, as of the beginning of this year, the number of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid models in the world has reached 15 million, and from the data alone, pure electric vehicles have become the mainstream.
In addition, the world's major automotive markets, such as North America, Europe and China, have made commitments to reduce carbon emissions, taking the United States and Europe as an example, by 2030 to reduce carbon emissions by at least 50%, less than 8 years ago, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can use this time to complete large-scale commercial promotion, the authors are skeptical.
Finally, the construction of pure electric vehicle energy supplementation network has a considerable scale, and the author believes that the electric vehicle energy supplementation network is based on the global grid infrastructure, that is to say, almost every power outlet in the world is a potential charging station. The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle replenishment needs to start another stove, not only is it costly, but in terms of technology, there are still problems in the storage and transportation of hydrogen fuel.
To solve the above three major problems, the time and resources invested are immeasurable, and because of this, the author has sentenced the "death penalty" for the large-scale commercial landing of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
3 major disadvantages, stripe to death. In the author's view, hydrogen fuel is in the field of transportation, and its life is over. Hydrogen fuel cells, what is the current status of the industry? In the industry, hydrogen fuel cells, domestic and foreign have appeared two very different trends. From a domestic point of view, although pure electric vehicles still occupy the mainstream, the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has never stopped, whether from industry or policy support. By the end of last year, more than 50 prefecture-level cities in China had issued hydrogen energy industry plans, and various localities had successively introduced relevant support policies.
But looking outward, the Japanese and Korean car companies that once bet on hydrogen energy do not seem to have provoked any splash after years of investment, and from the official attitude, the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles seems to be unsustainable. In July last year, Honda announced the suspension of its hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Clarality Fuel Cell, and did not announce a new hydrogen fuel cell model in the future, focusing on research and development and turning to pure electric vehicles. Also choosing to discontinue hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is Nissan, which announced the suspension of the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as early as the beginning of last year, focusing resources on electric vehicle research and development. So far, among the top three Japanese companies, only Toyota is left, and it continues to invest in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle track. In addition, south Korean car company Hyundai, once a staunch supporter of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, was also exposed by the media at the end of last year, suspending the development of the Genesis hydrogen energy vehicle project and drastically reducing the size of the fuel cell team.
Cold abroad and hot at home are the basic situation of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry.
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