#精品长文创作季#
As early as before Yellen and Blinken's visit to China, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo revealed that the White House was preparing to suppress China's electric vehicles.
The reason why the United States chose to announce the decision to impose tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese goods in mid-May is probably to deal with the impact of Putin's visit to China on the international situation.
Although the United States has quadrupled China's tariffs on electric vehicles, it is indeed rare for the tax rate to reach a record high of 100%; However, many netizens said that this practice of the United States is purely "adding it for nothing". So, what is the point of the US tariffs?
1. The current situation of Sino-US automobile trade
Judging from the foreign trade data in the first four months of this year, netizens said that "it is not for nothing" because the automobile industry is not important to China's economy.
According to statistics, through 1.878 million exported cars and a large number of auto parts, mainland car companies have contributed about 65.6 billion US dollars to the country's export revenue this year, accounting for 6% of the export revenue of the entire foreign trade industry.
The reason why everyone underestimates the impact of the U.S. tariffs on the auto industry is mainly related to the current situation of Sino-US auto trade.
In 2023, the total amount of cars exported by the mainland to the United States will only be 368 million US dollars, which is indeed a "drizzle" concept compared to China's automobile foreign trade market, which has exceeded the 100 billion US dollar mark.
As for the Chinese electric vehicles involved in the tariff policy, it is even more of a small business worth mentioning. In particular, it should be noted that as early as when Trump was in charge of the White House, the U.S. Department of Commerce used the "Section 301 investigation" to raise tariffs on mainland electric vehicles from 2.5% to 27.5%, and the additional 25% tariff cost is the "301 additional tariff".
Although under the influence of high oil prices in the United States, the demand for electric vehicles in the American auto market has indeed increased a lot in recent years; But Chinese electric vehicles, which cost more than 20% of the tariffs, are not at all the mainstream choice for American car owners.
Last year, for example, mainland automakers exported only 12,500 NEVs to the United States, accounting for only about 1% of China's total EV exports.
As we all know, the nosy old United States has always regarded more than 20 "North American neighbors" as servants in its own backyard, such as Canada, which is the second largest country in the world in terms of land area, and does not even have the qualifications to have independent armed forces.
We have every reason to believe that Canada, Mexico and other countries will use the same "tariff weapon" against Chinese car companies under the coercion of the United States.
If our electric vehicles completely lose the North American market, can we still say "add it for nothing"? To the surprise of many friends, the North American market, which has the United States and Canada, two developed countries in the West, turned out to be an "electric vehicle desert" with a market position comparable to that of Africa.
According to public information, the proportion of electric vehicles exported from mainland China to the North American market last year was only 13%, and the importance of the North American market is far less than that of Eurasia, which together accounts for more than 70%.
Judging from the development situation of the new energy vehicle market in the United States, mainland car companies can also cope with the challenge of the tariffs.
As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the new energy penetration rate of the new car market in the United States was only 8.8%, which means that for every 1,000 new cars purchased in the United States, car companies can sell 88 electric vehicles.
Compared with the mainland's new energy penetration rate of more than 40% in March, the development level of the US electric vehicle market is not worth mentioning at all.
It is particularly noteworthy that under the influence of weakening international oil prices, the penetration rate of new energy in the United States in March was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in February, and according to the forecast of industry insiders, the sales of electric vehicles in the United States this year are only 1.7 million. Even if mainland car companies win all U.S. electric vehicle orders, it will not have much impact on performance.
Second, Biden's calculations
As the "talker" of the White House elite, Biden is certainly aware of the development of Chinese electric vehicles in the United States.
The reason why Biden passed the new "301 tariff suppression policy" is not to protect the interests of American car companies in the U.S. electric vehicle market, but to achieve three ulterior purposes.
First, prepare for the "2024 U.S. presidential election". With less than half a year to go until the voting day of the US presidential election, Biden and his rival Trump are racking their brains to canvass for themselves.
What is surprising is that Trump, who has always "rebelled every time", publicly praised Biden's decision after Biden decided to impose four times the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Decisions that even those who oppose them the most have to support undoubtedly belong to the concept of "what everyone wants".
Domestic netizens always feel that American voters who have no money in their pockets should be very supportive of high-quality and low-cost Made in China, but judging from Trump's reaction to Biden's praise, it is obvious that the United States does not like Made in China that steals the business of American companies.
Biden, of course, is not unfamiliar with Trump's "unwillful approval", but he has to pay attention to the opinions of American trade unions.
The 89-year-old National Auto Workers Federation has now become a "small guild" with less than 400,000 members, but they still have the ability to organize mass events across the country. It is particularly worth mentioning that Cao Dewang's American factory was taught a hard lesson by the National Auto Workers Federation.
Second, it instigates comprehensive decoupling and severing chains with China. As we said earlier, Chinese automakers are not worried about losing the impact of the North American market, but no automaker can afford the challenge of full decoupling and chain breaking. Worryingly, the European Union has begun to follow the example of the United States in its crackdown on China's electric vehicles.
According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Chinese automakers threaten the development of the market economy in the European auto market with high official subsidies and "unfair competition tactics" that lower workers' compensation and benefits.
At the urging of this EU politician, who is extremely unfriendly to the mainland, the EU has launched a countervailing investigation against the mainland's electric vehicles.
The loss of the EU, the largest overseas market, is not the worst case, but what worries us even more is that the mainland's import channels for new energy materials are also very unsafe.
Take the lithium resources called "white oil" by netizens, the import volume of lithium concentrate in the mainland exceeded 4 million tons last year, of which "Australian lithium" accounted for nearly half. As a core member of the "Five Eyes Alliance", Australia will obviously not honestly cooperate with the mainland to develop the electric vehicle industry.
Second, to sow discord between China and Russia. About a month after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the mainland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs put forward the slogan of unlimited cooperation between China and Russia.
Although the West has been increasing its pressure on "Russia-related and Chinese enterprises" for more than two years, we have not given up our commitment to "unlimited cooperation".
Biden's crackdown on China's electric vehicles may seem to have nothing to do with Sino-Russian cooperation, but this hegemonic tactic will directly affect the living conditions of workers in China's auto industry.
Take BYD as an example, once European and American countries fully boycott Chinese electric vehicles under Biden's "flickering", the 703,500 employees of this national enterprise and the families behind them will suffer from unemployment and salary cuts caused by the decline in orders.
The people's support for China-Russia cooperation without limits is nothing more than a desire to live a good life, but in the face of a series of negative shocks such as soaring oil prices and declining incomes, who will be as unwavering as they were more than two years ago?
3. The courage to survive with a broken arm
Friends who support the development of electric vehicles can not admit the risk of spontaneous combustion of lithium batteries, and can also ignore the embarrassing reality of "saving fuel but not money" of electric vehicles, but they must face the development trend of collective abandonment of electric vehicles in overseas markets.
The three realities in front of us prove that surviving with a broken arm is our most rational choice.
First, the rampant "problem of cheating and compensation". It is not uncommon for new energy vehicle companies to cheat and subsidize today, and many domestic media have exposed the problem of "new energy vehicle graveyard". In those parking lots full of new electric cars, the cars that can't be sold are being hollowed out by bricks and idling in place.
Although the mainland has canceled the subsidy policy for new energy vehicle companies, those unscrupulous capitals are eyeing the "tax rebate cake" again.
According to foreign media reports, under the dual pressure of insufficient capacity and slow sales, more and more new energy vehicles are piling up in European ports.
It stands to reason that these car companies should adjust the export loading schedule in a timely manner, but they are bent on earning export tax rebates, and they are still increasing the scale of exports.
Second, there is huge pressure on people's livelihood. A period of hot events such as high-speed rail price hikes and water price increases have made more and more friends believe that we have entered an "era of high life pressure".
In this case, only the industries with the most affordable comprehensive costs are worthy of full subsidies from the state.
With the strong rise of electric vehicles, Continental has indeed won the honor of being the world's first in the automobile industry, but this honor is in exchange for the interests of people's livelihood.
Those insurance companies that are worried about the risk of spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles have raised the price of new energy vehicle insurance, which will make many low-income groups have no choice but to choose "no insurance on the road", and only a compulsory traffic insurance can obviously not protect the interests of new energy vehicle owners and surrounding people.
Third, the pressure of scrapping that cannot be escaped. Judging from the current trend of electric vehicle development, the vast majority of car owners will sell their electric vehicles in about five years.
Since many second-hand car dealers are reluctant to buy electric vehicles with huge price fluctuations, these old electric vehicles that no one wants can only be sent to the dismantling yard.
Since there is currently no policy in the mainland to force car companies to recycle used electric vehicles, the dismantling yards with only fuel vehicle dismantling experience can only be driven to the shelves.
It is true that many scientific research units have researched the technology of lithium battery recycling, but these costly new technologies obviously cannot be applied to grassroots factories.
epilogue
The global electric vehicle market has undergone earth-shaking changes, and the mainland should also adjust its domestic industrial policy in a timely manner.
Even if there are no policies to restrict the development of electric vehicles now, unreasonable support policies such as export tax rebates should be eliminated.
So, do you think electric vehicles should be a priority? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss, like our article, please pay attention!