January financial data review: Credit pulse continues to pick up
1) In January, the social financing was 6.17 trillion yuan in a single month, which significantly exceeded market expectations. Mainly in the two pieces of enterprise loans and local special bonds, showing a significant year-on-year increase. It reflects the impact of policy pre-emptiveness and the intention of easing credit at both ends of enterprises and local governments under the intention of "steady growth". It is worth noting that the medium- and long-term loans of residents increased by 200 billion yuan less than last year. The credit expansion of real estate, at present, is not particularly obvious on the sales side. This is a "flaw" in this month's social finance data.
2) China's credit pulse growth rate continued to rebound to -7.6% from -10% last month. Reflecting the credit environment continues to change from last year's tightening to a relaxed direction, it has a positive effect on the subsequent stabilization of the economy. M1 growth rate showed negative growth due to the base effect, and the average growth rate of M1 in 1-2 months showed a rebound state.
3) Single-month social financing exceeded expectations, mainly affecting market expectations, which will increase the sentiment of enterprise replenishment, thus playing an expected driving role in commodity prices.
4) At present, in the case that the overseas economy has not yet gone down significantly, the domestic credit easing action has begun to have an additional stimulating effect on commodity prices with bottlenecks in supply.
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