#宽信用超预期, the "economic bottom" is imminent#(1) New social financing exceeded expectations, and effective social financing rebounded. In January, the new social financing was 6.17 trillion yuan, which was 5.45 trillion yuan higher than the market expectation

#宽信用超预期, the "economic bottom" is imminent #

(1) The new social financing exceeded expectations and the effective social financing rebounded. In January, the new social financing was 6.17 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation of 5.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year; the stock growth rate rebounded for the third consecutive month, 0.2 percentage points to 10.5%, representing the effective social financing growth rate of enterprises in the medium and long term also rebounded by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

(2) The main reason for the social financing exceeding expectations is that the credit "opened the door", and the pull of government bonds and corporate bonds is also more obvious. In January, new RMB loans increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing about 39% of the year-on-year increase in new social financing; government bonds and government bonds increased by 358.9 billion yuan and 188.2 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, with a total contribution of more than 55% year-on-year increase in social financing; non-standard financing turned positive year-on-year, and stock financing increased slightly year-on-year.

(3) Credit exceeded expectations mostly contributed to bills, but there have been certain signs of recovery in real demand, and corporate medium- and long-term loans have turned positive for the first time in the past six months. In January, new loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, bill financing increased by 319.3 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing 81% of the year-on-year increase in loans; medium- and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 60 billion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan year-on-year, ending a negative year-on-year increase of 6 consecutive months; enterprise short-term loans increased by 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year, or the short-term turnover demand for funds was stronger; the scale of residents' medium- and long-term loans and short-term loans decreased by more than 200 billion yuan year-on-year, further expanding compared with the previous month.

(4) M1 turned negative for the first time, and M2 rebounded slightly. In January, M1 was -1.9% year-on-year, compared with 3.5% last month, and M2 was 9.8% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The negative M1 turn is related to factors such as the base effect of the Spring Festival dislocation; in the deposit sub-item, resident deposits and enterprise deposits increased by 3.9 trillion yuan and decreased by 2.3 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year, and fiscal deposits increased by more than 580 billion yuan year-on-year, or pointed to the continuous development of finance.

(5) Reiterate the view: the "policy bottom" has been consolidated, and when the "three-step" of steady growth is carried out, the demand will gradually improve, and the "economic bottom" may soon appear. The bond market may have stood at a new "crossroads", accompanied by confirmations such as "wide credit" and "economic bottom", and the bond market may face certain adjustment risks.

【IFC Macro • Zhao Wei Team】