In 2021, the id. family has delivered 70,600 vehicles. This absolute value is not far from the 98,200 vehicles of the new force "new crown" Xiaopeng. At the same time, we also need to note that as recently as March 2021, the ID. family delivered only 0.08 million vehicles, and the cumulative delivery volume as of June was only 0.7 million vehicles. In other words, most of the 70,000 vehicles delivered by the ID. family were delivered in the second half of 2021.
What does this mean? It shows that the competitiveness of the ID. family's products in the process of competing with the new forces is not as "unbearable" as it was rumored at the beginning of the listing. On the contrary, traditional car companies have initially shown their power of "thick accumulation and thin hair" in industrial planning and capacity layout.
At the same time, there are two very representative products at the end of 2021 – Mercedes-Benz's EQS and BMW's iX. Although they will not form a large enough influence like the ID. series at the level of sales data, the design, technical application and product strategy they show indicate the counterattack of traditional forces in the field of pure electricity - in fact, it has only just begun now.
Of course, there are many related news points, such as Toyota's quite "Evergrande routine" like a release of 15 pure electric vehicles, etc., here is not a review.
The discussion on the confrontation between new forces in the field of pure electricity and traditional car companies should be said to have been going on for a long time. The capital market Tesla can be called "thrilling" market value, but also for everyone to open up countless brain holes. For a time, "pure electricity will be the world of new power manufacturers", "traditional car companies will become kodak, Nokia in the automotive industry" and so on. After experiencing the retreat of a wave of new forces, another wave of new forces will also appear in 2021 (typical such as Xiaomi and Huawei).
So, how should we view the counterattack of traditional car companies starting in 2021? In the future, pure electric, in the end, is the world of new power car companies, or will it be reoccupied by traditional car companies? This topic is actually a bit big. We can only "take a step, take a step" based on the current situation, just like a flashlight to illuminate the road. At least, after 2021, we don't have to "bearish" traditional car companies (their influence in the field of pure electricity) as in the past.
Traditional car companies are not idle, and the "dormancy period" is about to pass
Uncle Ka has experienced many similar car buying cases. When a person spends more than 200,000 yuan, it is normal to subconsciously buy Tiguan L, but if it is a pure electric user, they often can't think of buying ID.4 or ID.6.
Forming this inertial cognition, Uncle Ka believes that there are no more than three reasons:
The first is brand recognition. That is, subconsciously believe that traditional car companies such as Volkswagen are good at fuel vehicles, and pure electric is a new and unfamiliar field for them.
The second is "overtaking in curves". We've said this many times. That is, in the field of fuel vehicles, there are high barriers to the powertrain, especially in the matching and tuning process. In the era of pure electricity, these old and powerful traditional car companies not only have no barriers compared to the new forces, but even become catch-ups - whether it is battery management technology or electric drive technology, many new force manufacturers are one step ahead and preconceived.
The third is the research and development model of traditional car companies, which further strengthens this cognition. On the one hand, the research and development speed of new power manufacturers is fast, the product is new and fast, and it quickly attracts attention and occupies the market and public opinion highland. On the other hand, traditional car companies follow the inherent thinking, and a pure electric platform alone will be developed for N years. This not only suffers losses at the level of "attracting attention" and "occupying the market", but also easily makes people form the cognitive illusion that "traditional car companies can not do pure electricity".
Of course, there may be a fourth reason, and possibly even the most important reason in terms of psychological impact, that is, due to the research and development model of traditional car companies, it has launched some "transitional models" in the previous N years. In order to ensure that the foundation is not a problem, they do not choose to build a temporary platform, but through the "oil to electricity" approach. This method does look relatively safe at first glance, but it further exacerbates the market's impression that "pure electricity made by traditional car companies is not good".
Volkswagen's "ultra-low endurance" oil to electricity (such as Langyi pure electricity, Bora pure electricity, Golf pure electricity, etc.) needless to say. Even the BBA's three "pioneering products" – the Mercedes-Benz EQC, the Audi e-tron and the BMW iX3 – are lackluster in competitiveness.
However, all of this will gradually become a thing of the past by 2021, because the pure electric platforms of these traditional car companies have begun to "exert force". Volkswagen needless to say - it is no accident that the entire Volkswagen Group will not launch a pure electric model of "oil to electricity" in the future. Mercedes-Benz is a compromise - in the high-end field has been completely pure electric platforming, including the EQS that has been listed and the EQE that will be listed. Although BMW is still "lagging behind", according to the official announcement that its pure electric platform mass production car will not be until 2025, its iX still shows the example it should have. Or we can understand that even if there is no pure electric platform, as long as the concept can be completely innovated, it is also possible to develop a highly competitive pure electric product.
On the big side, traditional car companies have no obvious shortcomings
Then look at the product. Previously, when comparing the pure electric products launched by traditional car companies and new forces, we felt that the reasons why the former could not work were nothing more than three aspects.
The first is design. Traditional car companies have both the factor of designer inertia thinking and the so-called "brand inheritance" factor, so they can't always jump out in design. Even models redesigned from scratch, such as the Mercedes-Benz EQC and Audi e-tron, still feel a strong "fuel flavor". This is also an important reason why many "Tesla fans" are unlikely to turn to such models.
Second, it is the performance of three electricity. There is a performance factor, and more importantly, the battery life. However, the reason for this difference is not entirely because of the difference in the three electric technologies. More often, it is the platform and concept of traditional car companies. For example, the self-weight caused by "oil to electricity" is too large. This in turn covers all aspects, such as the need for additional reinforcement of the relevant parts because there is no engine gearbox like EQC, more protection redundancy of the battery pack, and there are conceptual differences in battery energy density, battery charge-discharge ratio, and many other aspects. The final result is that the pure electric models of the traditional car companies have high power consumption, short endurance and mediocre performance.
Third, it is intelligent. Especially intelligent car machines, the past products of traditional car companies are compared with the products of new forces, and there is really a sense of "Nokia meets Apple". The same is true of smart driving systems. Of course, the latter is slightly different, with differences in philosophy (conservative OR radical).
Then look at the product of the moment.
In terms of design, the ID. series is not outstanding, that is, it still looks like a fuel car. But if you analyze it from the perspective of body structure, you will still find that Volkswagen designers have subverted some ideas. One of the most typical, and also the commonality of all the "pure electrical products of a new generation of traditional car companies" in this judgment, is the "A-pillar forward" or "driver's seat forward" mentioned by Uncle Ka when analyzing Xiaopeng P5 and other models before. This is a very essential change. Based on the NVH characteristics of fuel vehicles and the distribution of center of gravity, the "forward-shifting" design sacrifices driving quality and handling. Pure electric is completely absent from this problem. In fact, the ID.3 in the ID.series, even if the overall visual effect has been more subversive - it does not look like a fuel car, or it has a "futuristic feeling" similar to the new power product.
Compared with the ID. series, the Mercedes-Benz EQS and BMW iX are completely subversive products. Although this has also caused some controversy, for example, some people feel that EQS does not have the aura of S-class, but if you only evaluate the "futuristic" and "fresh" feelings, they have not lost to the new forces at all. It actually takes courage to achieve this. Especially for brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW, designers do carry too much "inheritance pressure" behind them.
In terms of the performance of Sandian, there may be discrepancies with the practices of new forces in the direction of "flaunting performance". But this is already "must not be also, really not also". That is to say, this situation is only a difference in concept, and traditional car companies believe that it is not a correct strategy to over-flaunt performance, especially the entire series. We will say this in the third link. Let's start with why they "have to be impossible too."
For example, the Mercedes-Benz EQS580, with an acceleration of 4.4 seconds, can still reach a range of 720 kilometers. It is true that 4.4 seconds is still not as BT as Tesla Model S and Weilai ET7, but don't forget: first, EQS is advertised as luxurious, and the curb weight is half a ton heavier than Molde S, and second, EQS always has to leave some space for the AMG version, right?
Looking at the BMW iX M60, with an acceleration of 3.8 seconds, the endurance of the WLTP condition can also reach 566 kilometers, which is already a completely new force.
Intelligent, this is not easy to quantify. But from the sensory point of view, at least it should not be a short board. In particular, EQS's interior, screen, system and interface seem to be newer than the new forces. The experience and effect of the iX, at least compared to BMW, is completely subversive. The ID.series slot points are a little more, but the probability is also a temporary phenomenon.
Of course, some of the advantages created by the new forces are also such as the layout of charging/swapping networks, the construction of community culture, the frequency and speed of progress of OTAs, and so on. But these, for traditional car companies, catching up is only a matter of time, and it does not take too long.
The "traditional" advantages are still the same, and the product strategy is worth exploring
In addition to the shortcomings of the general complement, some of the "traditional" advantages of traditional car company products will still exist. The most prominent is the chassis tuning - pure electric curve overtaking, at the chassis level is still unable to "super". There is also the creation of a luxurious atmosphere, some design details, and the excellence of the NVH level, etc., the experience of these traditional car companies can be used. And, of course, capacity. This includes both the development capability of new products and the production capacity of final products. ID. Is very typical in this regard: the speed of product launch is surprising, and the layout of the capacity is scary enough to look at the numbers. These can be understood as the accumulation of traditional car companies to spend a lot of effort to develop pure electric platforms, and can also be understood as the advantages of traditional car companies in the design and production links once the "foundation is done".
It is worth exploring the product strategy. At present, everyone is accustomed to the single product explosion of the new forces - like Tesla, Weilai, Ideal, etc., all of which are in the routine, completely unlike traditional car companies, a car series has made several or even dozens of cars for everyone to choose.
Traditional car companies do not seem to have "borrowed" from this practice. Whether it is the ID. series, Mercedes-Benz EQS or BMW iX, there are different versions of high and low. Although it is not as fine as the division of fuel vehicles, it is also significantly different from the practice of the new forces. The most typical such as EQS, the entry-level model is only two-wheel drive, the acceleration takes 6.4 seconds, and the price is still more than one million, which has caused a lot of ridicule and spit. However, the practice of traditional car companies must be wrong, and the practice of new forces must be right?
This is a point of controversy. Uncle Ka's view is that the reason why the new forces choose a single product is not entirely to dispel the "choice phobia" of consumers, but more from the "short supply" of production capacity, it is better to concentrate on playing a little. Traditional car companies have no such concerns. Instead, offering different products and meeting different needs is an effective and popular approach that has been proven for decades.
For example, EQS, is it really only 1.5 million EQS 580? Do people who really buy EQS have to accelerate in 4 seconds? Not necessarily, I'm afraid, right? Don't forget, battery life is still the more important focus of pure electric at present, and EQS 450+ can achieve an endurance of about 850 kilometers, is it more attractive than 4 seconds of acceleration?
summary
Before 2021, the competition between traditional car companies and new forces in the field of pure electricity is one-sided - the advantages of the latter are too obvious, so that the world feels that the automotive industry will also have a revolutionary transformation similar to the field of cameras and mobile phones. This is probably the main reason why Tesla can be worth N BMW and Mercedes-Benz. In 2021, this situation has not reversed, and the advantages of the new forces are still obvious. However, traditional car companies in this field, there is already a very obvious "undercurrent". Compared with sales, we pay more attention to the transformation of traditional car companies' thinking, and its long-term research and development model has reached the cashing period. Then, whether it is product characteristics, product quantity or production capacity, it will undergo qualitative changes compared to before. Therefore, in the future pure electricity market, whether it is a new force or a traditional car company dominating, it is really difficult to say.