At the beginning of 2021, the car buyer had predicted that the automotive market in 2021 would usher in more micro pure electric vehicles, and some non-car manufacturers would also announce cross-border car manufacturing. So, is the 2021 car market forecast of the car buyer accurate or not?
The results show that Chery QQ ice cream, which is similar in shape to Hongguang MINIEV, was officially launched at the end of December 2021 and achieved hot sales on the market. According to the statistics of the Association, the retail sales of Chery QQ Ice Cream in December 2021 reached 8390 units, and it has successfully ranked ninth in the retail sales list of new energy cars in December 2021. In addition, Xiaomi, which is thriving in the mobile phone industry, also officially announced the construction of a car at the end of March 2021, which caused a lot of shock in the automotive circle. Lei Jun revealed that Xiaomi Auto is expected to be mass-produced in the first half of 2024.
Before we can savor 2021, we have entered 2022. So, in the new year, what new changes will the automotive market usher in? Today, the car buyer will make a new round of automobile market prediction according to the previous news.
1000km endurance models began to gain popularity
We all know that new energy vehicles are the future development trend of automobiles, but there are still many people who do not buy non-fuel vehicles. The reason has a lot to do with the fact that the mileage of pure electric vehicles is not long enough and the charging network is still not perfect. These two points also hinder the development of new energy vehicles.
In order to completely eliminate the battery life anxiety of domestic consumers, many car companies have joined the queue to improve the mileage of pure electric vehicles. The current new car information shows that the pure electric vehicles of some autonomous car companies already have a pure electric mileage of more than 1,000 kilometers, such as the AION LX Plus, which has been officially launched on January 5, 2022.
As a pure electric medium-sized SUV owned by GAC Aean, AION LX Plus's CLTC has a comprehensive working range of 1008km, which makes it a concern before it is listed. Perhaps the actual endurance of AION LX Plus cannot exceed 1000km, but the pure electric endurance after attenuation can still meet the long-distance travel under normal circumstances, which alone is enough to make people move.
In addition to the AION LX Plus, NIO's first medium- and large-sized sedan ET7 and the first mid-size car ET5 have a clTC comprehensive working range of 1,000km. However, the 150kWh battery pack that gives THE NIO ET7 and NIO ET5 a thousand kilometers of comprehensive endurance is expected to be delivered until the fourth quarter of 2022, and it still needs to wait.
In short, pure electric vehicles with a comprehensive endurance of more than 1,000km have arrived and are expected to be gradually popularized in 2022. However, the current problem is that the price of pure electric vehicles with a comprehensive endurance of more than 1000km is not low, for example, the price of the AION LX Plus Thousand Mile Edition (CLTC comprehensive working range of 1008km) is as high as 459,600 yuan, which directly dissuades many people. The car buyer predicts that pure electric vehicles with a range of more than 1,000km, which are priced in line with most people's budgets, will gradually appear after 2022.
The outlook for power swap mode is brighter
In fact, in addition to improving the cruising range of pure electric vehicles, we can also eliminate the user's endurance anxiety by changing the battery, which is similar to our fuel car to refuel at the gas station. But we also know that the laying of the substation is more troublesome than the charging pile, and the cost is higher, which makes many people not optimistic about the power exchange mode. However, in 2022, the power exchange model is expected to usher in an outbreak.
In January 2022, CATL officially released the power exchange brand - EVOGO Lexing Power Exchange, which adopts a combination of power exchange overall solutions, which is composed of a power exchange block, a power station and an APP. The release of EVOGO's power exchange has triggered a shock in the field of power exchange. It is certain that the entry of the power battery giant Ningde era will accelerate the development of the power exchange model.
However, the FAW Besturn NAT combination power exchange version of the "marriage" with EVOGO Lexing is a new car built for the shared travel market, which shows that the current main service of the Ningde era is not ordinary pure electric vehicle owners, but full-time drivers, which is very different from the power exchange of Weilai Automobile. However, with the popularity of substations, the Ningde era may also provide services for ordinary pure electric vehicle owners. At that time, will there be an increase in the number of enterprises entering the field of power exchange, and will car companies increase the research and development of power exchange models? We'll see.
The number of autonomous hybrid models exploded
Pure electric vehicles are not powerful enough, that can also be on the green card plug-in hybrid model is a good choice. In 2021, BYD's many DM-i models were listed, which set off a lot of storms in the plug-and-mix market, and also let many car companies see the real prospects of the hybrid market. With the hot sales of BYD DM-i models, independent brands such as Changan, Weipai, and Xingtu have increased their weight in the mixed market, intending to share a piece of the pie.
At present, the Mocha DHT-PHEV equipped with the 1.5T lemon hybrid DHT system, the Changan UNI-K iDD with the Blue Whale iDD hybrid system, and the Xingtu Wind Chasing ET-i equipped with the "Star Core Power ET-i Full Engine Super Hybrid" plug-and-mix technology have all opened pre-sales in January 2022 and are expected to be officially launched soon. At that time, there will be many more good plug-in models on the market to choose from.
Of course, while other brands launch new plug-in hybrid cars with high fuel economy, BYD is also further enriching its DM-i family matrix. At present, BYD's 2022 Song MAX DM-i has opened pre-sale, with a pre-sale price of 146,800 yuan. It is reported that the BYD destroyer 05 (equipped with DM-i super hybrid system), which was unveiled at the 2021 Guangzhou Auto Show, will be listed in the first quarter of 2022, while bydir Han DM-i is expected to be listed in the first half of 2022.
Based on the above new cars alone, it can be seen that the plug-in market in 2022 must be a dragon fight, and it is still difficult to say whose hand the deer died. Car buyers are more worried about whether BYD's production capacity can keep up, otherwise models such as destroyer 05 can only take the old road of "queuing up to pick up cars" after listing, and the increase in this situation is likely to have a bad impact on the BYD brand.
The penetration rate of new energy continues to expand
In 2021, the automotive market suffered from the impact of "lack of core". In this case, the new energy market is still thriving. Statistics from the Federation of Passenger Vehicles show that from January to December 2021, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars in the mainland reached 3.312 million units, an increase of 181% year-on-year.
In terms of penetration rate, from January to December 2021, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles of manufacturers was 15.7%, compared with only 5.8% in 2020, with obvious progress. In December 2021, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles of manufacturers was 21.3%, of which the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of independent brands and mainstream joint venture brands was 35.2% and 3.7%, respectively. Obviously, mainstream joint venture brands still have a lot of room for improvement.
The car buyer learned that many overseas car brands will increase the investment in new energy vehicles in 2022, including Toyota and Honda. It is reported that the Toyota bZ4X will be officially listed in 2022, while the Dongfeng Honda e:NS1 and Gac Honda e:NP1 will also officially join the domestic new energy battlefield in 2022. With the entry of many joint venture new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of the joint venture brand will certainly increase, thereby promoting the overall penetration rate growth.
Of course, independent brands will also increase the investment of new energy vehicles to maintain or enhance their voice in the new energy market. In terms of plug-in and mixed models alone, BYD will launch a number of heavy-duty plug-in and mixed new cars in 2022, and Weipai, Changan, etc. will also continue to increase. In short, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be higher than that in 2021.
The popularity of 1000km endurance models, the expected outbreak of power exchange models, the surge in autonomous hybrid models, and the expansion of new energy penetration, will the automobile market in 2022 be as predicted by the car buyer? I believe that time will soon tell us the answer. If you also have your own views, welcome to communicate with the car buyer.