Rearrangement of jianghu seats In 2021, the battle for heavy-duty truck sales "the dust has settled"

After the market test of "ice and fire", the sales battle for the heavy-duty truck market in 2021 has finally "settled".

On January 12, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM") disclosed the operation of China's commercial vehicle market in 2021, and the production and sales of commercial vehicles in China in 2021 were 4.674 million units and 4.793 million units, down 10.7% and 6.6% year-on-year. Specifically, the heavy trucks, light trucks and mini trucks in the truck category have all reduced a large amount, of which heavy trucks (i.e. heavy trucks) have the largest reduction. According to the data disclosed by the China Automobile Association, in the whole year of 2021, the sales volume of heavy-duty trucks in China was 1.395 million units, a decrease of 224,000 units compared with 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. The reporter of China Business Daily noted that from May to December 2021, the heavy-duty truck market continued to slump and suffered "eight consecutive declines", of which from August to December, the year-on-year decline in the heavy-duty truck market exceeded 50%.

"In 2021, the shortage of global vehicle-grade chip resources, coupled with the repeated epidemic situation and regulatory switching, the commercial vehicle industry has been violently impacted, showing a market trend of 'high before and low after' throughout the year, and the competition is unprecedentedly fierce." A senior person from a commercial vehicle company told reporters that the heavy-duty truck market continues to be cold, which is closely related to factors such as the downturn in the terminal market, the switching of emission standards, the early overdraft of demand, and the high inventory. A number of industry insiders interviewed by reporters expect that the downturn in the heavy-duty truck market will continue into 2022, and the whole year will show a "low before and high after high" trend.

At the same time, the reporter noted that with the fierce competition of heavy-duty trucks "qualifying" coming to an end, the king of the heavy-duty truck market in 2021 has been determined, and the top three companies in terms of sales are still the three "big brothers" of FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck. Among them, FAW Jiefang (000800. SZ) won the championship with a record of 346,000 units. The ranking between the latter two has changed dramatically, and China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951. SZ) significantly outperformed the market, ranking second with sales of 286,000 units, while Dongfeng Motor dropped from runner-up in 2020 to third in the industry with a sales record of 264,000 units.

It ends with "eight consecutive descents"

In 2021, under the background of further tightening of emission regulations, the re-compression of the traditional fuel heavy truck market, and the intensification of competition in the stock market, China's heavy-duty truck market finally "handed over" with a sales volume of 1.395 million vehicles.

According to data disclosed by the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of the heavy-duty truck market in 2021 was 1.395 million units, down 13.8% year-on-year and 224,000 units lower than in 2020. In December 2021, the sales volume of China's heavy-duty truck market was 57,000 units, down 47.8% year-on-year, setting the lowest level of December sales in the past six years (2016-2021). The reporter noted that from May to December 2021, the heavy-duty truck market was in a continuous downward channel, so that the heavy-duty truck market that had been singing all the way before stepped on the "brakes" and suffered "eight consecutive drops".

On July 1, 2021, the National VI emission standards for heavy-duty diesel vehicles were implemented nationwide, and the exhaust emission standards for heavy trucks were upgraded from "China V" to "China VI". Due to the increase in costs brought about by the upgrading of emission standards, the demand for heavy-duty truck industry is obvious, and the data shows that the sales volume of heavy-duty truck industry in the first half of 2021 was 1.035 million units, an increase of 27% year-on-year. However, in the second half of 2021, heavy-duty truck sales declined significantly, of which from August to December, the heavy-duty truck market fell by more than 50% year-on-year.

"Affected by the implementation of the National VI emission standards for heavy vehicles, the heavy-duty truck market has shown a trend of 'high before and low after'. In the first half of the year, in order to compete for the opportunity of switching emission standards, a large number of market demand was overdrawn in advance, affected by this, the digestion of China V inventory cars in the second half of the year and the amount of new cars in China VI were greatly affected. The senior person of the commercial vehicle company told reporters that in addition, since the beginning of this year, the domestic freight volume has continued to decline, and the reduction in transportation demand is also an important reason for the downturn in the demand for heavy trucks, and the traditional fuel heavy trucks have entered the competitive stage of the stock market.

Due to the fierce competition in the heavy-duty truck market in 2021, the number of seats in China's heavy-duty truck industry has also changed.

According to the data of china Automobile Association, in 2021, FAW Jiefang's sales volume was 346,000 units, down 7.9% year-on-year, maintaining the first sales ranking, and in 2021, FAW Jiefang won the annual sales champion of heavy-duty trucks for six consecutive years; China National Heavy Duty Truck sales were 286,000 units, down 2.5% year-on-year, ranking second in the 2021 heavy-duty truck sales list, an increase of one place over 2020; Dongfeng Motor's sales of heavy-duty trucks in 2021 were 264,000 units, down 15% year-on-year, ranking third in the list, compared It fell one place in 2020; it was followed by Shaanxi Automobile Group, which sold 193,000 heavy-duty trucks in 2021, down 16.5% year-on-year; Foton Motor (600166. SH) sold 105,000 heavy-duty trucks in 2021, down 28.5% year-on-year and ranked fifth on the list.

The companies ranked 6th to 10th on the list were SAIC Hongyan, Jianghuai Automobile, Dayun Heavy Truck, XCMG Heavy Truck and Khanma Technology, with 63,000 units, 34,000 vehicles, 30,000 vehicles, 19,000 vehicles and 15,000 vehicles respectively, down 21.3%, 36.9%, 15.1%, 30.4% and 31.3% respectively year-on-year.

Will the downturn in the heavy-duty truck market in 2021 usher in a recovery in 2022? Many interviewees believe that the "downward" trend of the medium-duty truck market in 2022 has almost become the consensus of the industry, but the market may pick up in the second half of 2022.

"Looking forward to 2022, heavy-duty truck sales in the first half of the year or still under pressure, but the gradual weakening of policy disturbances, the gradual digestion of the inventory of 'National V' heavy trucks in the channel, and the moderate acceleration of infrastructure construction, the demand for heavy-duty trucks is expected to gradually improve at the current low level, and the monthly sales of heavy-duty trucks in the second half of 2022 are expected to return to positive growth." Huatai Securities expressed a similar view in its research report.

How to answer the 2022 "exam paper"?

For commercial vehicle companies, how to answer the "examination paper" in front of them is the focus and focus of their 2022.

"There are still opportunities when the market is down. In 2022, there will be a series of market opportunities, including large-scale infrastructure projects, the implementation of the 'double carbon' target, and regulatory updates that are clearly to be implemented. In 2022, especially in the first half of the year, we will combine the strategies of products, customer development, terminal marketing, etc., plan in advance, lay out in advance, firmly grasp the opportunity in our hands, we will implement the '54363' strategy in the marketing system, and will resolutely win the five major battles, fully enhance the four major strains, accelerate the expansion of the three major regions, and do a good job in six supports and three guarantees. Recently, at the media earnest discussion meeting of the FAW Liberation 2022 Business Annual Meeting, Zhang Song, director of the MARKETING Department of FAW Liberation, general manager of the sales company and deputy secretary of the Party Committee, made a comprehensive deployment of the marketing tactics of faw liberation in 2022. In Zhang Song's view, FAW Jiefang is industry-leading in six aspects, including brand power, product strength, customer base, channel capability, marketing team and system capability, which is also the most important foundation for FAW Jiefang to win the battle in 2022.

Peng Long, director of the FAW Jiefang Product Management Department, told reporters that in 2022, FAW Jiefang will continue to take the five core value points of users such as high-end, comfort, reliability, low consumption and green as the guide, and launch 4 new platforms and 14 upgrade platforms to continuously enhance product competitiveness.

As the "dark horse" of the heavy-duty truck market in 2021, Sinotruk has also made a key layout for 2022 and the next two years. Recently, at the China National Heavy Duty Truck Science and Technology Innovation and Development Conference, Tan Xuguang, secretary of the party committee and chairman of Sinotruk, said that within two years, Sinotruk will achieve domestic leadership in heavy-duty truck products and technologies, form a full range of commercial vehicle competitive advantages within 3 years, and heavy-duty truck products will take the lead in moving towards the world-class level. "Heavy trucks should concentrate their superior resources to build heavy trucks, dump trucks and mixer trucks into highly competitive products in China, and build a new generation of Yellow River heavy trucks into first-class flagship products."

Dongfeng Motor will also use its fists and feet to seize the market in 2022. At the recent 2022 dealer conference of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd., Dongfeng Motor released the "brand upward strategy" of commercial vehicles, which will take the "brand upward strategy" as the general traction, promote the landing of the whole value chain business, continue to deepen marketing transformation and market insight, and practice the integrated sales model of "vehicle + aftermarket". According to the plan, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles (Headquarters) will reach 160,000 vehicles in the domestic market by 2022.

Facing 2022, Jianghuai Automobile proposed that it will carry out professional division of labor and collaborative operations, ensure the marketing goal of 40,000 vehicles in 2022, adhere to user thinking, create high-quality explosive products, and improve precision marketing and service capabilities.

It can be seen that in the face of 2022, major commercial vehicle companies have played a combination of products, marketing, services and other combinations of fists in the hope of seeking a breakthrough in the already sluggish market.

The reporter noted that Huajin Securities pointed out in a research report released on January 6 that in the second half of 2021, China's heavy-duty truck market was affected by factors such as the switching of National VI emission standards and the high inventory of the industry, and sales fell sharply year-on-year. With the passage of time, the negative impact of China VI emission upgrades has gradually been eliminated, and the reasons for the superimposed base of the same period, the worst time of the heavy-duty truck industry may have passed.

"It is expected that some of the demand in the medium and heavy-duty truck market will move back in 2022, and the demand rhythm will show a trend of low opening and high going; the market will enter the stage of stock competition, and the cruelty of competition will be further enhanced, becoming the new normal of the medium and heavy truck industry." Zhang Song believes that under the new normal, there are also four new opportunities in the medium and heavy truck market. "First, the recovery of infrastructure projects brings engineering opportunities; the second is the 'double carbon' strategy to stimulate new energy opportunities; the third is the end of China III, and the restriction of National IV is to bring opportunities for regulatory updates; the fourth is to ensure people's livelihood, specialized transportation, and bring market segmentation opportunities."