Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 352nd batch of new car announcements, a total of 240 new energy models, including 94 new energy heavy trucks. It is worth noting that in the recent batches of new car announcements issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the number of declarations for new energy heavy trucks has been at a high level.
With the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets advancing, the electrification route is gradually "hot" on the heavy truck track. In 2021, the sales volume of electric heavy-duty trucks in mainland China increased by nearly 3 times year-on-year. Industry experts expect that the output of electric heavy-duty trucks will triple in 2022, reaching more than 40,000 vehicles, while bringing demand for power batteries above 60GWh.
(Wen 丨 Intern reporter Yang Zi Yao Meijiao)
Electric heavy trucks usher in a good opportunity for development
Statistics show that in 2021, the cumulative sales of domestic heavy-duty trucks were 1.391 million units, down 14.1% year-on-year, of which the sales of heavy-duty trucks in the first half of the year were 1.045 million units, accounting for 74.9%, showing the characteristics of "first hot and then cold, first raised and then suppressed".
Industry insiders believe that the comprehensive switching of emission standards has promoted the accelerated release of heavy-duty truck market demand in the first half of the year. In April 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the Announcement on Matters Related to the Implementation of The National VI Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles, which clarifies that from July 1, 2021, the National VI Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles will be fully implemented nationwide, and the production and sale of heavy-duty diesel vehicles that do not meet the National VI emission standards will be prohibited.
"The main reason for the 'first rise and then suppress' of the heavy-duty truck market in 2021 is 'National V Pressure National VI', that is, the original dealer has a large backlog of China V vehicle inventory, making it difficult for subsequent China VI models to enter the warehouse and sell." Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, said in an interview with reporters, "This highlights the problem of where the mainland's heavy-duty truck power system is developing, according to the current development of China VI and China VII, the technical route of relying only on engine emission reduction has basically come to an end." ”
According to the statistics of electric truck observation, from January to November 2021, the cumulative sales of electric heavy trucks reached 6840 units, an increase of 198.6% year-on-year, of which the monthly sales in November reached 1704 units, an increase of 668% year-on-year. It can be seen that while the heavy-duty truck market is sluggish in 2021, the sales of electric heavy-duty trucks have increased significantly month after month, although the base is low, but it has added vitality to the entire heavy-duty truck market.
"Driven by the current national environmental protection policy, the purchase requirements of fuel-powered National VI models and the significant increase in operating costs, new energy heavy trucks have ushered in an excellent opportunity for development." Industry experts point out.
Major car companies have laid out
Synchronized with the sharp increase in sales, major car companies have laid out the field of new energy heavy trucks. For example, in 2021, Sany Heavy Truck launched more than 30 new energy products, its "Jiangshan" EV550 and EV490 battery capacity optional 282KWh and 350KWh, has been widely used in Hebei, Xinjiang, Tianjin and other major steel enterprises, mines, ports; on January 8 this year, the Yuandong new energy vehicle brand with electric heavy trucks was officially launched in Shanghai, committed to promoting the electrification and intelligence of heavy trucks; on January 11, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle and state power investment hydrogen energy company reached a strategic cooperation. It is planned to achieve the joint market promotion of 1,000 fuel cell heavy trucks in the next two years...
CITIC Securities predicts that in 2022, the policy may continue to send a dongfeng for the development of the new energy heavy truck industry, and the support policies at all levels are expected to be superimposed, fuel cell heavy trucks will be significantly increased, and the promotion of new technologies and new application scenarios is expected to spawn new tracks.
According to statistics, at present, there are about 8 million heavy-duty trucks in China, accounting for only 2.67% of the car ownership, but the nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emitted by heavy-duty trucks reach 85% and 65% of the total vehicle emissions, respectively. It can be seen that as a major emitter in the transportation field, the transformation of heavy-duty trucks and new energy is urgent. At the same time, compared with new energy passenger cars, the electrification of new energy commercial vehicles is slower, and the market penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks is at a lower level.
In addition, a number of industry experts also said that power exchange is the best application mode for heavy truck electrification. At present, the replacement of heavy trucks has been supported in some areas. In October 2021, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Launching the Pilot Work on the Application of New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Modes, selecting 11 cities as power replacement pilots, of which Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou are heavy-duty truck feature pilots.
Market demand determines the technical route
Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which clarifies that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy standards for vehicles that meet the requirements in the fields of urban buses, road passenger transport, taxi (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021. Cao Guangping predicted: "In 2022, the sales volume of new energy heavy trucks may have a 'tail effect', and most companies in the industry may compete for the final subsidy." ”
Cai Cui, director of the Logistics Center of the Highway Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Communications, said: "At present, heavy trucks should find suitable application scenarios to try, such as some public railways, public water multimodal transport at both ends of the highway short barge transport, due to the fixed line, the distance is moderate, charging and replacing infrastructure can be guaranteed, is a better application scenario for electrified heavy trucks." ”
So, how to further promote the electrification of heavy trucks in the future? "Policy support alone is not enough, we need to align the technical route with the real market demand, in order to help the development of the industry, and help to take more core technologies into their own hands." Cao Guangping pointed out that "allowing different technological routes to compete freely and finding long-term effective methods that do not rely on subsidies meet the needs of users in domestic and international markets." ”
End
Welcome to share it with your friends!
Produced by | China Energy News (ID:cnenergy)
Trainee Editor | Li Zemin
Editor 丨Li Huiying