Audi Mercedes-Benz promotional impulse, SAIC Dongfeng annual pressure, 2021 who can end smoothly

It is less than 10 days before the end of 2021, what kind of year-end answer sheet can major auto groups submit?

Unstable factors such as the continuous shortage of chips, the repeated local epidemics, the tight supply of parts, and the rise in raw material prices have become a sharp sword lingering on the heads of car companies, making the sales targets set by major car companies at the beginning of the year "life hanging on the line", and also adding a lot of uncertainty to the domestic auto market this year.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that from January to October this year, the market gap caused by the chip shortage to the automobile market was about 750,000 vehicles; and from the perspective of the degree of production reduction of car companies, Chen Shihua expects that the reduction in automobile production due to chip shortage this year will be more than 2.5 million vehicles. In the context of supply constraints, as of the end of November, the completion of sales targets of various car companies was uneven, and some car companies may find it difficult to complete the annual sales targets.

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The top three Germans: the supply of goods is tight and improved, and the Mercedes-Benz Audi promotion impulse discount exceeds 50,000

Unlike the performance of the overall automotive market, the luxury car market returned to growth after a brief decline. According to the China Automobile Association, the sales of luxury cars produced in China in November reached 319,000 units, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year; from January to November, the sales of luxury cars produced in China reached 3.112 million units, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year, higher than the cumulative growth rate of passenger cars by 12.4 percentage points.

The China Automobile Dealers Association said that the impact of chip shortage in November continued to improve, luxury and joint venture brands were greatly affected in the early stage, and the current inventory situation improved significantly; with the gradual weakening of the impact of chip shortages, and the end of the year into the peak season of car purchases, the sales volume of the luxury car terminal market increased significantly, and the average transaction price remained relatively stable.

Overall, in the first 11 months of this year, luxury car brands showed overall growth but structural imbalance, with cumulative sales exceeding the 3 million mark, of which the top three German BBA still showed a leading state. According to the insurance figures, from January to November this year, BMW Group achieved new car sales of 767,000 units in China, leading the first camp of luxury cars; as of the end of November, Mercedes-Benz had sold 693,000 new cars in China, down 2.5% year-on-year; in the first 11 months, Audi sold 639,000 new cars in China, down 21.% year-on-year.

Less than ten days before the end of the year, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, believes that "the demand for high-end exchange for consumption upgrades is still strong, the year-end impulse enthusiasm at the luxury car dealer level is high, and Mercedes-Benz Audi is still relatively still in the impulse stage." ”

A few days ago, the reporter visited the 4S store in downtown Beijing and found that the hot models such as audi A6L and Mercedes-Benz C-class currently have existing cars and have different degrees of discounts. For example, a sales consultant of an Audi 4S store in Beijing said, "At the end of the year, the current Audi A6L discount is more than 50,000 yuan, if the car purchase discount can be further increased; in addition, the Audi Q2L, Audi A4L and other hot models in the store have existing cars, and the preferential range is more than 50,000 yuan." ”

Joint venture brand: "core panic" has a clear impact, and the sales volume of mainstream joint venture brands fell by more than 20% in November.

According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, due to the continuous shortage of chips this year, the joint venture brand continues to lose the "city pool", and the retail sales volume of mainstream joint venture brands in November this year was 780,000 vehicles, down 23% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month.

In addition, from the top ten rankings of sales manufacturers in November released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the joint venture brand only accounted for 5 seats; compared with the same period last year, the joint venture brand lost a seat in this list, not only that, the ranking also has a big change, of which FAW-Volkswagen occupies the top of the list, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Dongfeng Nissan The ranking has declined, and FAW Toyota, which squeezed into the ranking, ranked tenth, while GAC Toyota and Dongfeng Honda in the same period last year are difficult to find. Cui Dongshu said, "In November, the sales volume of mainstream joint venture brands increased by 1% month-on-month, and the state was not very satisfactory, and the relative pressure on Japanese and German was relatively large. ”

According to the data of the Association, in the first 11 months of this year, FAW Toyota achieved sales of 740184 vehicles, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year, according to faw Toyota set a sales target of 880,000 vehicles, the current FAW Toyota completion rate of 84.11%; GAC Toyota's cumulative sales in the first 11 months of this year reached 729477 vehicles, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year, according to the sales target of 800,000 vehicles, the completion rate of 91.18%. Honda China sold 1.3929 million units in China in the first 11 months of this year, but Honda China did not announce its sales target for the current year.

According to the data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative sales of FAW-Volkswagen from January to November this year 1622197 vehicles, down 13.3% year-on-year; SAIC Volkswagen's cumulative sales in the first 11 months were 1316604 vehicles, down 6.4% year-on-year, making it relatively difficult to complete the annual sales target. However, Cui Dongshu said that with the development of the north and south Volkswagen in the new energy vehicle market, a positive signal has been released, which is also conducive to the stabilization of its future market share.

In addition, the market share of French cars in November increased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and the cumulative sales volume of DPCA from January to November this year was about 86,600 units, an increase of 97% year-on-year; according to the sales target of 100,000 units per year expected to be achieved by DPCA this year, the completion rate of DPCA was 86.6%. However, relatively speaking, the overall performance of Korean brands and American brands has not yet improved significantly. Cui Dongshu said that in the current competition in the domestic auto market, joint venture brands need more comprehensive system competitiveness to better adapt to the transformation of the domestic auto market.

A sales consultant at a Dongfeng Honda 4S store in Beijing told reporters, "Honda CR-V, XR-V stores have existing cars, cash discounts of more than 10,000 yuan, Civic also has existing cars, but the discount ranges from 3,000-5,000 yuan." A number of Guangqi Honda 4S stores in Beijing also said that they all have existing cars, and a 4S store sales consultant said, "There are plenty of existing cars in the store and large cash discounts; for example, Haoying's cash discount is about 35,000 yuan, and the Accord's discount is also nearly 20,000." ”

The discounts of volkswagen brands are also more than 10,000 yuan. The reporter called a Beijing automobile - Volkswagen 4S store, which said that the current volkswagen CC, Tanging, Tange, Sagitar, Maiteng and other models of preferential treatment are generally between 20,000 yuan and 40,000 yuan. SAIC Volkswagen's preferential treatment is also between 15,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan, of which the maximum discount of a 4S store Hui Ang is more than 60,000 yuan.

Independent brand: the degree of completion is uneven, and new energy becomes the best assist

From the perspective of the performance of independent brands, although the overall automobile market this year has been affected by the dual impact of chip shortage and the epidemic, the performance of independent brands is remarkable; according to the data of the China Automobile Association, the market share of independent brands increased to about 46.3% in November, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. However, in terms of the performance of independent brands, the completion of sales targets is uneven, and it may be difficult for Geely Automobile, SAIC Motor, Dongfeng Motor, etc. to complete this year's sales targets.

Geely Automobile's cumulative sales in the first 11 months of this year were 1.1693 million units, breaking through the million-vehicle mark, and the lack of cores was initially alleviated; but at the beginning of this year, Geely Automobile set an annual sales target of 1.53 million vehicles, with a completion rate of 76.5% at present, which is basically hopeless to achieve the annual sales target; and the decline in sales of main models is the main reason. According to Geely Automobile's previous statement, Both Xingyue L and Xingrui have more than 10,000 units to be delivered, but due to supply chain challenges and other factors, production has decreased.

Like Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor's sales target for this year is not as good as expected. In the first 11 months of this year, Great Wall Motor's cumulative sales volume was 1.1186 million units, an increase of 16.3% year-on-year, surpassing the total of last year, with a completion rate of 75%. However, it is worth noting that Great Wall Motor set a sales target of 1.21 million units at the beginning of this year, but raised its sales target to 1.49 million units in May this year. If it is not adjusted before, Great Wall Motors can successfully complete it.

As the top three independent brands, Changan Automobile Group is expected to take the lead in crossing the line and complete the annual sales target. From January to November this year, Changan Automobile Group sold 2.1225 million units, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year, exceeding the total sales volume of last year. According to Changan Automobile's annual sales target of 2.15 million units, the current completion rate is 98.7%; however, it is worth noting that the cumulative sales of Changan Automobile's own brand passenger cars in the first 11 months were 1.126 million units, and it is still impossible to determine who can win the annual sales championship of changan automobiles, Great Wall Motors and Geely Automobile.

On the one hand, the continuous shortage of chip supply has affected larger automobile groups more seriously; on the other hand, due to the overall decline in the commercial vehicle market, the decline in commercial vehicle-based enterprises has also been more obvious.

From January to November this year, Dongfeng Motor Group's overall cumulative sales of 2.5172 million units, down 0.34% year-on-year, from the beginning of the year to 3.85 million units, the completion rate is only 65%; if you look at the performance of passenger cars, dongfeng motor's cumulative sales in the first 11 months of this year were 22.0247 million units, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, but the completion rate was only 75% (passenger car sales target of 2.669 million units).

SAIC Motor's annual target for this year is 6.8 million vehicles, the cumulative sales of 4.8 million vehicles in the first 11 months, a slight decrease of 1.06% year-on-year, sales completion of 70%, to complete the annual sales target, in December need to complete the sales of 2 million vehicles, the difficulty can be seen. Relatively speaking, FAW Group and GAC Group are under less pressure. FAW Group's sales target for this year is 4 million vehicles, a micro-75% completion as of October; among them, the Hongqi brand has accumulated sales of 261,400 units in the first 11 months of this year, challenging the hopeless annual sales of 400,000 vehicles. GAC Group's sales target for this year is 10 percent positive growth, or 2.248 million units, and the current completion rate for the first 11 months is 85 percent.

Compared with the larger promotional offers of joint venture brands, the preferential margin of independent brands is smaller. "At present, the hot-selling model Xingyue L has no cash discount, but it can be given a gift package; Xingrui can currently offer 1,000 yuan." A sales consultant at a Geely Automobile 4S store in downtown Beijing said, "Other models have corresponding cash discounts, such as Jiaji can discount more than 10,000 yuan." In addition, during the consultation process, the reporter found that geely automobile's geometric car discount is relatively large, and the staff of a geometric car 4S shop in downtown Beijing said that for example, geometry C can currently be discounted by nearly 30,000 yuan.

The same is true for the Haval brand of Great Wall Motors, the discount of hot models such as Haval big dog and Haval first love is about a few thousand yuan, and there are also individual models of up to 10,000 yuan, such as a sales consultant of a Haval 4S store in Beijing told reporters that the current Haval H7 in the store can be discounted by 20,000 yuan. During the reporter's consultation and visit, it was found that saicel Roewe's preferential treatment varies greatly, ranging from 3,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan, for example, roewe RX5 can be discounted up to 25,000 yuan, but it includes gift package services.

In the industry's view, the decline in sales of joint venture brands also has the factor of lack of new energy vehicle support. According to the data of the Association of Automobiles, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 13.9% from January to November, showing a situation in which new energy users win the world. Thanks to the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, BYD completed its annual sales target ahead of schedule, accumulating 500,900 vehicles in the first 11 months of this year, with a target completion of 125%.

Looking at the domestic automobile market in 2021, independent brands show tenacious vitality, sales continue to rise, market share continues to grow and compete with joint venture brands, while new energy vehicles also show a state of rapid development; the China Automobile Association predicts that the total sales of the domestic automobile market this year will be 26.1 million, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, but lower than the 4% growth expectation at the beginning of the year; of which new energy vehicles may reach 3.4 million. However, the industry believes that with the collective efforts of joint venture brands in electrification in the next year, the domestic automobile market will enter a fierce competition stage.

Beijing News reporter Wang Linlin Editor Chen Li Proofreader Chen Diyan