This is the 368th original content of the "Autobot Reference"
"Moving smart electric vehicles forward"
Recently, the China Automobile Association organized a small seminar, mainly to gain insights into the auto market in 2022, and I think it is still very meaningful to discuss this topic at this time.
Look at the macro economy
It is expected that the GDP growth of 8% in 2021, the average growth rate of the two years is about 5%, positive growth from the previous month, the economy as a whole maintains a stable operation, and is in a leading position in the world.
Split into three major demands, the contribution of the consumer side has become the main force driving GDP, while the investment side, especially real estate and infrastructure, has not exerted much force under control, and the performance of the import and export end has improved significantly.
Looking at consumption, although the per capita consumption expenditure of residents in the country increased by 15% in the first three quarters of this year, the average real growth in the two years was only 3.7%, and it has not yet returned to normal.
In fact, the growth rate of per capita disposable income of residents and the growth rate of economic growth are basically synchronized, and with the growth of income, the growth rate of consumption is also rising to a normal and stable state.
Look at the policy
According to the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year, the policies for next year are mainly as follows:
In terms of macro policies, we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy; strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights in micro policies; enhance the resilience of supply chains in terms of structural policies; achieve a virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance in science and technology policies; and promote major regional strategies and coordinated regional development in terms of reform and opening up policies; and finally, in terms of social policies, employment and new birth policies will be implemented and effective.
But overall, their direct impact on the passenger car market will not be too large.
Look now
Since July, auto retail sales data has seen a continuous decline, in stark contrast to last year's high double-digit growth.
The main reason analysis, from the supply side, the lack of core of the car affected about 5-10% of the market sales, showing that there was no car, resulting in a decline in sales statistics, but the demand still existed.
On the consumer side, the overall average income is growing, but the median is declining, reflecting that the income gap is widening, and the richer the richer, so it is roughly divided into two groups of people.
A wave of money, corresponding to the consumption upgrade, consumption from the first car to the second car, the third car, in the replacement process, basically will choose more high-end products or brands, which led to the growth of luxury brands.
The replacement trend will also be gradually transmitted from first-tier cities to 3-6 tier cities, and the scale of exchange this year accounts for 1/3 of passenger car consumption, and this trend will continue to be maintained next year.
The wave without money, that is, the majority of low- and middle-income people, because of the great impact of the epidemic, led to a change in income expectations and dare not spend money, mainly affecting the consumption of A-class passenger cars.
Look at new energy vehicles
For new energy vehicles, the market still presents the shape of A00 and B-class cars at both ends of the dumbbell type, the current new energy vehicles are mainly as the second car, but personal consumption in January to November this year has accounted for 78%.
This year's new energy passenger car market penetration rate is about 15%, as the supply side of new energy vehicles more and more competitive, in 2021 new energy accounted for 50%, and next year's 137 new models, electrification products (new energy + hybrid) 90 models, the proportion of new energy will increase to 58%, therefore, it is expected that next year's new energy passenger car penetration rate can see 18%-20%.
Taking the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 342 cities across the country to make a statistic, most cities took 84 months from 0 to 5%, but the average from 5% to 10% was 5.8 months.
Once it reaches 10%, from 10% to 15%, 15% to 20%, the stay time is getting shorter and shorter, which is basically in line with the S-shaped curve of industrial development.
It can be predicted that the inflection point of new energy vehicles has arrived ahead of schedule (previously thought to be 2025).
Look at next year
Taking the forecast of the China Automobile Association as a reference, the total sales of China's automobiles in 22 years were 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, of which passenger car sales were 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year; the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year; if calculated according to the penetration rate of 20%, the new energy passenger cars were about 4.6 million.
In the medium and long term, the impact of the car market is the demographic structure, in 2020, the passenger car market after 80 and 90 accounted for 80%; by 2025, the post-00s and post-90s baton will become the main force, accounting for 65%.
However, in terms of total, the post-90s are 50 million less than the post-80s, and the post-00s are 30 or 40 million less than the post-90s, so the total amount of consumption in the overall car market will be greatly reduced.
Autobot Reference Summary
Market forecasting belongs to the core part of the "five looks and three certainties" in strategic insights to see customers and the market, first sort out the total plate size, and then granularize according to their own business, and then guide the market goals, pipelines and offensive strategies for next year.
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