Follow and star electric planet News
Punch in every day to read
Gain a deeper understanding of the automotive industry transformation
————————
Producer: Electric Planet News
Author: Clara
Editor's Note:
This article was originally reprinted, but the original author Clara Clara forgot to mark the original, so it is impossible to present the source of this article in the official form of WeChat. Here's a call for Clara, welcome to follow her public number:
Looking back at 2021 ten years later, it should be an extremely turbulent year, and you and I rushed out extraordinary.
This year, Wei Lipeng's delivery volume has climbed up to a new high; this year, the boiling of the Chinese turmoil has also caused the new forces in the year to fall into a new low in the year; more importantly, this year, there are no new cars. But 2022, which is coming soon, may be a new product year that everyone has not seen before.
Today, we look at the expectations of 2022 from the three perspectives of new product concentration, user psychological changes and user growth. After all, the second half of the running into the field came to the fore.
First, the outbreak of new cars in 2022
First take stock of the product side of each family, what will happen in 2022.
1. NIO:
ET7, which is coming soon, and ET5, which is coming soon on NIO Day.
According to the 2020 Q3 earnings call, the delivery guidance data for 2020 Q4 is 23500-25500, so the approximate volume of deliveries after Q4 2021 is about 89895 - 91895.
The overall delivery target for 2022, according to this base, if you guess the big deviation correctly, the probability is to hit 200,000 units (or even higher).
2. Xiaopeng:
The G9 released the product, but did not release specific parameters.
Although I recognize Xiaopeng's products and routes, there is one thing I personally criticize - the unit price is slightly lower. I hope that after the G9 is listed, it can break through the ceiling of 330,000-350,000.
This problem is not a problem of the Xiaopeng family, but a problem faced by domestic cars. A high enough customer unit price means strong purchasing power + the expectation of delivering 100,000 units per year (mainstream brands are this goal next year), which means that sufficient positive cash flow and capital utilization rate are the targets of new energy investments that the capital market may recognize.
3. Ideal:
I personally don't have any hobbies for the range, I think it is a transitional product to solve the mileage anxiety of ordinary users, and there is no difference between one and three. (But the monthly sales of a single model exceed 10,000, and the process of creating a blockbuster is worth learning and thinking)
In my understanding, the ideal is for families who have a budget of only 300,000 (the budget that can only support one car) and need a decent large 6/7 seat car and do not have a gas license plate. It can only be said that it is very in line with the national conditions of Chinese families in this era.
I heard that the X01 is larger than the current ONE size, emmm... All right...
By the way, only the domestic cars of most new forces (new cars are not new forces, directly facing users are new forces) sell the car price to 330,000-350,000 or more (referring to the opening fare), and then can start to discuss user operations.
Most of the cars (the unit price of passengers stays in the range of more than 10 and 200,000), and it is not yet to the point where it needs to be operated by users. But BBAP (BBA + Porsche) pure tram users are really blank and unfortunate, and the traffic flows in vain - high unit prices and no one cares.
Summary of the product section:
Weilai's three NT2 platform cars will begin to be delivered next year, Xiaopeng will start to list the G9 next year, and other traditional car companies will also have new products listed.
The 2022 Beijing Auto Show should be based on the products that have been on the market to optimize the product outbreak year. But it's far from the time of generational product iteration, semi-generational products I guess will appear in about 2023 (release is also considered to appear).
In November this year, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars has reached 20.8%, and it is optimistic to estimate that it is not impossible for this figure to reach 23% by the end of December. Then be more optimistic, next year's number double is not impossible, then it means that the next year, electric vehicles and electric vehicle bayonet fighting, may really begin.
Second, the user's psychological changes are subtle, and the polarization is intensified
1. The bandwidth of the crowd continues to increase, and the psychological changes are more subtle:
From buying a fresh, Musk /Li Bin loyal support, to no founder faith, the pursuit of high cost performance, the overall market progress sinks. From the so-called "big toys for the rich" to the means of transportation within reach of ordinary people.
From the initial tolerance, to the current over-tolerance to the competition, of course, this is brought about by rapid development. (It's all the same car, and there are more people with different purposes.) ）
2. Polarization intensifies, with people who buy toy cars and people who buy cars seriously appear in the same group:
Early rational users have become investors from users, and many people have earned back the money to buy cars; to the later stage, users are more concerned about cost performance, and all product appeals are converted into product price performance after spending money.
The benefits of this differentiation, the strong hengqiang. Whether it is the founder's IP and value-driven enterprises, culture hengqiang, technology hengqiang, product Hengqiang is a development link from the top to the bottom, but also let the ripple spread of the marginal cost gradually decreasing.
Another Hengqiang way is simply driven by product cost performance, and this Hengqiang method, I can only say that it needs to be verified. Because there is no century-old product, only a century-old brand. Culture shapes the brand value of a century-old Hengqiang; but driven by products, once the product has a crotch pull, it is very likely to pull the crotch completely.
To use an inappropriate analogy, Mercedes-Benz A-Class and BMW 1 Series are not Hengqiang products, but they are attached to the Hengqiang brand and still have a strong yearning group. But this is my family word, just for reference.
A sane appeal from Clara:
In the time of 2021-2022, smart electric vehicles are still the initial evolution of maintaining the state of oil vehicles. In the process of the evolution of new things, all instability is unforeseeable.
When you and I choose to buy smart electric vehicles on the market today, we must think clearly in advance that it is a new thing in the process of evolution.
Don't be demanding, treat evolution. When the semi-generational products and the possible full generational products mentioned above arrive, the instability in this evolutionary process will accompany the growth of brands and products for a long time.
Moreover, because the supply chain also needs time to adapt to such evolution and iteration, they will not necessarily have a stable play at the first time, so the uncertainty of the supply chain is also intuitive.
(Qualcomm has begun to make car chips, doesn't it need time to adapt to the cooperation with the main engine factory?) ）
Fourth, grow
In the face of user growth, car companies are obligated, but they also need more early pioneer users to join the ranks of "cultivators". The growth of users needs time, space, and more importantly, the correct guidance of car companies.
1. Full business, with professional knowledge, beat the amateur science
The automobile is a product with a very long industrial chain, and I believe that the vast majority of people do not oppose this sentence.
So from product definition, to research and development, to hardware to software, to manufacturing, logistics delivery, after-sales support to the sales end, maintenance end, an APP can carry all the social science, why can't it be fully open?
It's an extremely low-cost, imaginative thing.
As a car company, you can harvest a group of users who are willing to grow with yourself; as a user, you can get the correct cognition across the industry, maybe you can also help yourself invest in financial management (this is a joke); as a member of the "business" car company, you can harvest your own "fan users", the first time to get the user's perspective to feed their own business, maybe you can also add buff - maybe one day, there will be a group of users to support themselves.
2. Moderate communication can communicate the product content
For example, the pre-testing of OTA upgrades in the car system; for example, telling users the logic of scheduling production in words that users can understand.
In short, it is harmless to say something that is harmless, which actually tests the values and wisdom of the whole team.
Positively speaking, it is possible to close the relationship with the user; however, if you operate in the opposite direction, there are many examples of possible blackening. I believe that the siege lions also have a heart standing in front of the stage, it is not a big deal to chat with users about physics class, it should be close to science.
(When I first entered the new energy industry in 2017, I really listened to three days of physics classes in the training, namely body, three electricity and manufacturing, and I still feel that I have benefited a lot.) ）
3. Make good use of employee car owners, and make good use of the friends around you who trust you to drive a tram
This is actually both simple and difficult. Dynamic balance, scale and scale, extremely test the weight and wisdom.
My own experience is that from the past to the present, every colleague around me who bought a tram is a master of communication and a seed player (to put it mildly: after all, MLM starts with its own people) and believes in the power of the gang!
At the same time, we must also believe in the strength of the individual, and believe that our professionalism is enough to impress the tram runners who have already boarded the train around you and make good use of them. They love the automotive industry as much as you do, and what the students of the car company have to do is to ignite and surpass this love. (True feelings of innocence)
Fifth, the cultivator of the creation era - I want to pull you into the company
Today's smart car use is advancing, just like everyone learned the use of smart phones in the past, the vast majority of people need time to learn - this view I am very, very firm (everyone mentioned the various problems after the car, can be summarized as: need time to learn. ）
You don't use FSD as soon as you get the car, you don't use NOP and NGP as soon as you get the car, and like the new system of learning a smartphone, the use of the car engine system, the use of intelligent cockpit and the use of automatic driving assist system also require time to learn.
So those who have spent time in the past to use the first generation of intelligent electric vehicle owners, they have a natural advantage to adapt to the future of the product, but as a practitioner I really hope from the bottom of my heart, they can become the "incubator of the era", not necessarily limited brand, but must have positive guidance ability and extremely rapid learning ability.
Or there is a more down-to-earth way, after picking up the car, take the city as the unit, set up a learning group, and monthly/quarterly units can be; and this matter, I also strongly appeal to those who already have a + smart electric vehicle owners to initiate, after all, what you say is really more convincing.
The most intense contradiction of today's smart car manufacturers comes from: the limited market education time, and the limited user learning time conflict.
However, the time to iterate on the product is infinitely compressed by all manufacturers to the shortest as much as possible, leaving the learning time for ordinary consumers to be too short, and the learning cost per unit time is too high.
But cars are sold to everyone. Today, there are many people who take a driver's license on the road, the car is not driving well, and he needs to fully adapt to the smart electric car in front of him in a limited time, which is simply a Davis double kill. After all, one of the best ways to reassure yourself, in addition to identifying, empathizing, and guaranteeing, is to learn and see with you.
Finally, to the theme: In the last month of 2021, smart electric vehicles ran into the second half:
1. Full of new hardware: lidar, semi-solid-state batteries, vehicle AR equipment, etc., convenient and efficient energy supplementation products and systems;
2. Iterate on the new software experience: more advanced intelligent cockpit, more intelligent assisted driving;
3. Full of new expectations: semi-generational products and new generational products should have been arranged by each family;
4. The knockout round starts: 100,000+ is the benchmark ticket for the annual delivery platform, but the number of sales is not a sufficient prerequisite for user operation, and the unit price of the customer is sold;
5. Second-hand new energy: I don't know if it is immediately after the second-hand new energy market is lively?
Because I believe, I see, and give each product a little time.
(End)
Planet article recommendations
"Add Electric Planet Assistant to Join planet community"