The scale of China's auto market is expected to rank first in the world for consecutive years The annual sales of new energy vehicles may exceed 3.4 million units

Reporter Gong Mengze

In November, China's automobile production and sales continued to grow month-on-month, but it was still in a downward range year-on-year. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.585 million units and 2.522 million units, up 10.9% and 8.1% respectively month-on-month, and down 9.3% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively.

In this regard, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told the Securities Daily reporter that under various pressures, the automobile industry still showed strong resilience in November, striving to overcome the impact of tight chip supply, scattered epidemic outbreaks, policy and regulatory adjustments, etc. The overall production and marketing situation was slightly better than expected at the beginning of the month.

It is worth mentioning that the new energy vehicle market continues to supply and sell both. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume of the new energy vehicle market reached 2.99 million units, an increase of 166.8% year-on-year, and the market penetration rate increased to 12.7%. According to the latest forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 3.4 million units this year.

"Looking forward to December, with the macroeconomic stability and good development, the demand for automobile consumption is still stable." However, Chen Shihua frankly said that there is still uncertainty on the supply side, the problem of tight chip supply still exists, and the orderly use of electricity in various places and the domestic scattered epidemic at the end of the year have increased the potential risk of industrial chain supply interruption. Coupled with the impact of high base factors in the same period last year, the pressure on automobile production and sales to maintain stability is still large. The industry generally believes that China's annual automobile production and sales will be slightly higher than the same period last year, and it is expected to exceed 26 million vehicles, which is expected to continue to rank first in the world.

In November, automobile production and sales increased month-on-month

The luxury car market continues to lead the car market

From January to November this year, domestic automobile production and sales reached 23.172 million units and 23.489 million units, up 3.5% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively; in terms of passenger cars, production and sales in November were 2.231 million units and 2.192 million units, up 12.2% and 9.2% respectively month-on-month, down 4.3% and 4.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline rate was narrowed by 0.4 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared with October.

Chen Shihua said that the supply of automotive chips in November is still tight, superimposed on the impact of the domestic scattered epidemic, and the passenger car market continues to operate at a low level. "In December last year, the level of automobile production and sales ranked the highest in the whole year, reaching 2.83 million units. Therefore, the automotive industry is still facing a lot of pressure in the same period of this year. ”

According to the observation of the "Securities Daily" reporter, the monthly production and sales of the passenger car market in November increased month-on-month, and the operating trend was basically the same as that in October. In contrast, the commercial vehicle market is not very optimistic. Due to the switch of China VI emission regulations, the consumption wait-and-see brought about by the adjustment of the "blue brand light truck" policy, and the continuous reduction of industry dividends, the production and sales of domestic commercial vehicles have shown a sharp decline. In November, commercial vehicle production and sales were 353,000 units and 330,000 units, down 31.9% and 30.3% year-on-year, the data showed that.

In addition, the luxury car market, which leads the car market, continues to grow. In November, domestic luxury car sales reached 319,000 units, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 9.4 percentage points lower than in October; from January to November, domestic production of luxury car sales reached 3.112 million units, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year, higher than the cumulative growth rate of passenger cars by 12.4 percentage points.

Chen Shihua said that affected by the "lack of core", although major car companies are trying to ensure the supply of luxury cars, the market still cannot meet the requirements of production plans in July and September, but this situation has continued to improve in October and November, releasing a positive signal.

It is worth noting that in the first 11 months, the market share of independent brands continued to increase. From January to November, Chinese brand passenger cars sold a total of 8.406 million units, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year, accounting for 44.1% of total passenger car sales, and the share increased by 6.4 percentage points over the same period last year. According to Chen Shihua, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has maintained positive growth for 8 consecutive months year-on-year.

Among the major foreign brands, compared with the same period last year, French passenger car sales maintained rapid growth, the United States also showed double-digit rapid growth, German, Japanese and Korean systems showed a decline, of which the Korean decline is still the most obvious; in addition, in the top ten enterprise groups in automobile sales, only BAIC Group failed to achieve growth. Compared with the same period in 2020, BYD ranked first with a growth rate of 72.4%, followed by Chery with 42.1% and GAC Group with 25.8%.

Tentative consumption to reassuring consumption

The annual sales of new energy are expected to exceed 3.4 million units

17.8%, 17.3%, 16.4%, 17.8%, these four data correspond to the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicle market in the past four months. With such performance, this key indicator to measure the development of new energy vehicles stood on a new level of 12.7% from January to November this year.

In November, the domestic new energy vehicle market demand continued to be strong, production and sales continued to innovate, production and sales were completed 457,000 and 450,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times year-on-year, the market penetration of 17.8%, continued to be higher than last month, of which the new energy passenger car market penetration rate reached 19.5%.

In the first 11 months, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.023 million units and 2.99 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate reached 12.7%, higher than in the previous 10 months. In terms of sub-drive forms, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 2.504 million units and 2.466 million units, up 1.8 times and 1.7 times year-on-year, respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 517,000 units and 522,000 units, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively; and the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 0.1 million units, up 23.0% and 16.0% year-on-year, respectively.

"The cumulative production and sales of the domestic new energy automobile industry reached about 3 million units during the year, which is of great significance to China's automobile industry." Chen Shihua believes that, on the one hand, this is a new historical record of our country. On the other hand, the new energy automobile industry has changed from quantitative change to qualitative change, completed the transition from the introduction period to the rapid growth period, and occupied a very important position in China's auto industry.

In Chen Shihua's view, there are many reasons why new energy vehicles can achieve such results. First of all, as the world's largest automobile producer and consumer, China recognized earlier that the transformation and upgrading of the new energy automobile industry is an important direction, so it gives support in terms of policy, and from research and development to market promotion, as well as infrastructure construction, it is an earlier layout.

Secondly, "industry enterprises in the new energy force earlier, in the industrial development, technology research and development, upstream and downstream raw materials in the comprehensive layout, the current products are also rich and diverse, can meet the needs of consumers." Chen Shihua said that the concept of Chinese consumers has undergone great changes, and the concept of green consumption has gradually been recognized for new energy vehicles from tentative consumption to assured consumption.

(Editing by Shangguan Monroe)