Reporter 丨 Li Xing
"Strong demand and chip constraints are the biggest features of the development of the domestic auto market this year." Overall, the domestic auto market has turned from negative growth for three consecutive years to positive growth. A few days ago, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said.
According to the China Automobile Association, from January to November, domestic automobile production and sales reached 23.172 million units and 23.489 million units, respectively, an increase of 3.5% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively.
"From January to October this year, the market gap caused by the chip shortage to the automobile market was about 750,000 vehicles. Throughout this year, due to the shortage of chips, sales in the domestic auto market are expected to decrease by 1.3 million to 1.4 million units. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said.
Chen Shihua predicts that in 2021, the total domestic automobile sales will reach 26.1 million units, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. For the overall trend of the domestic automobile market next year, the China Automobile Association also gave a forecast: in 2022, the total domestic automobile sales are expected to reach 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales are expected to be 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and commercial vehicle sales are expected to be 4.5 million units, down 6% year-on-year.
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Chinese brand passenger cars
The main kinetic energy of the car market
In November this year, although domestic automobile production and sales continued the month-on-month growth momentum, it was still in decline year-on-year.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in November, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.585 million units and 2.522 million units, up 10.9% and 8.1% respectively month-on-month, and down 9.3% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively.
In terms of segmentation, in November, although the domestic passenger car market was still affected by the lack of chip supply and the outbreak of the scattered epidemic, the monthly production and sales rose month-on-month, and the operating trend was basically the same as that of October, with production and sales of 2.231 million units and 2.192 million units respectively, an increase of 12.2% and 9.2% respectively, a year-on-year decline of 4.3% and 4.7%, and the decline was narrowed by 0.4 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared with October.
Among the four major categories of passenger cars (SUVs, cars, MPVs, and crossover passenger cars), except for the slight decline in sales of MPVs in October, the other three types of passenger cars showed different degrees of growth. Among them, the growth rate of SUVs and crossover passenger cars was the most obvious, with an increase of 10.9% and 12.3% respectively.
From the perspective of market sales structure, Chinese brand passenger cars have performed prominently and become the main force driving market growth. In November, Chinese brand passenger cars sold a total of 1.022 million units, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, accounting for 46.6% of total passenger car sales, an increase of 5.2 percentage points over the same period last year; from January to November, Chinese brand passenger cars sold a total of 8.406 million units, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year, accounting for 44.1% of total passenger car sales, and the share increased by 6.4 percentage points over the same period last year.
Image source: Daily Economic News Infographic
Among the major foreign brands, French and American passenger cars showed a year-on-year rapid growth trend, while German, Japanese and Korean passenger cars showed a year-on-year decline, of which Korean passenger cars showed the most obvious decline.
Compared with passenger cars, domestic commercial vehicle production and sales in November fell sharply year-on-year, with 353,000 units and 330,000 units, respectively, up 3.2% and 1.1% month-on-month, down 31.9% and 30.3% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline was further expanded from October.
In this regard, Chen Shihua explained that due to the switching of the "National VI" emission standards, the consumption wait-and-see brought about by the "blue brand light truck" policy adjustment expectations, and the continuous reduction of industry dividends, the demand for commercial vehicles in the second half of the year is weaker than in the first half of the year.
According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, in 2021, domestic passenger car sales will reach 21.3 million units, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales will reach 4.8 million units, down 6.4% year-on-year.
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New energy vehicles
Enter a new stage of explosive growth
The unexpected growth of new energy vehicle sales is a bright color in the domestic auto market.
In the first 11 months of this year, domestic new energy vehicle sales have exceeded the annual expectations, approaching 3 million. "It is estimated that for the whole year this year, China's new energy vehicle sales will be 3.4 million, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year." The new energy vehicle market has entered a new stage of explosive growth, from the past policy-driven to market-driven. Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.023 million units and 2.99 million units respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. Among them, in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 457,000 units and 450,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times year-on-year, respectively, and continued to set new records.
The high growth of new energy vehicles has realized its substitution effect on traditional fuel vehicles, and further promoted the pace of transformation of the automobile industry to new energy. From January to November, the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China increased to 12.7%. Among them, the domestic new energy vehicle market penetration rate was 17.8% in November, which continued to be higher than that of the previous month, and the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%.
"At present, consumers are becoming more and more receptive to new energy vehicles." Chen Shihua said that it is expected that by 2022, China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million, an increase of 47% year-on-year.
Caambiz is optimistic about the overall development of the auto market next year and during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and expects that by 2025, the Chinese auto market is expected to reach about 30 million vehicles. Among them, passenger car sales will reach about 25.26 million units, and commercial vehicle sales will reach about 4.75 million units.
However, Chen Shihua also said that there is downward pressure on the macro economy, employment affects consumption, chip supply tension will continue, commercial vehicle demand declines, and disturbances caused by "replenishing inventory" will also bring uncertainty to the market.
NBD car interaction
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