A few days ago, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, predicted the annual commercial vehicle market at the 2022 China AutoMotive Market Development Forecast Summit: cumulative sales of 4.8 million vehicles from January to December, down 6.4% year-on-year - the overall decline in the commercial vehicle market in the whole year is a foregone conclusion.
According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the tractor market sold a total of 23,000 units in November, a year-on-year growth rate of -68.0%, and has been in a downturn of only 20,000 production and sales for four consecutive months. From January to November, the semi-trailer tractor industry produced 615,000 vehicles and sold 656,000 vehicles, a cumulative growth rate of -16.3% year-on-year.
The failure of commercial vehicles throughout the year has been decided, and it is difficult to pull new products alone
This batch of new products is a total of 43 models, although it is slightly down, it is still at the high point of the year, but there is a deep sense of powerlessness. From the perspective of the nature of use, this batch has 35 basic semi-trailer traction and 4 dangerous goods transportation, and 4 new truck lifting products. At the same time, there is also a "special model" in this batch, that is, the CA4250P66K2T1E6HEV hybrid semi-trailer tractor declared in the previous batch, so it is not counted.
The author notes that some opinions that the vehicle lifting class and the coach class "are not" basic tractors and are excluded from the statistics. Although these are all traction variants, but from the announcement history, "there are and only" these categories, many companies even directly use the 4-character basic type to declare the announcement of the vehicle lifting class (there are 3 models in this batch), so it is still appropriate to count together. In addition, due to the lack of effective identification of historical information, it is difficult to distinguish the interference of the "two into the palace" model to the current batch data, and it is inevitable to draw the conclusion of "a total of 40 models". The comprehensive error rate of the above data analysis has reached 10%, and the past batch is even higher, which is difficult for the majority of car companies that need accurate data analysis to accept, after all, it is not "looking at the hilarity", but the decision-oriented basis used - so data analysis must be careful in words and deeds, which is encouraged by the author and even peers.
Liberation JH6 "Eagle Way" business class, Futian Galaxy 18 tons & Dongfeng Tianlong KL flat top
This batch of FAW Jiefang JH6 series declared 3 new products named "Yingtu" business class, Tijia commercial vehicles have exclusively previewed the interior renderings (link see the first exposure of the interior, Qingdao Jiefang a new generation of high-end heavy trucks - Yingtu, high-definition large picture to see first), the company is also scheduled to be on the 17th of this month The product was officially released and the off-line ceremony. Previously, FAW Jiefang declared THE CA4259P35K2T1E6A80 in the 343rd batch of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April this year, which was the first test of the waters for the "Yingtu" business class. This batch declared two diesel-powered and one new LNG-powered product, which adopt three sets of wheelbases of 3300/3450/3800+1350mm, respectively, equipped with FAW 14.5L, 620/580 horsepower and 12.5L, 560/500 horsepower diesel engines, and 530/470 horsepower gas engines. The series only maintains universality of the rear sheet metal parts of the cab, and the front and left and right sides of the cab, the door panels and the boarding pedals have been greatly reshaped, and the details of the internal and external decoration changes are detailed in the above link, which is also the most anticipated new product in the traction industry at the end of the year.
Foton Daimler's launch of the Auman Galaxy Galaxy galaxy series this year is also a major event in the industry, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology declared two 31-ton 8×4-load truck slabs in the 349th batch in November, and this batch declared the 18-ton 4×2 semi-trailer tractor BJ4189Y6ADL-13, which is also the first tractor announcement of the series. The wheelbase is 4.2 meters, the front 1/2 less reed rear air suspension, the curb weight of 6.87/7.2/7.55 tons, the maximum traction mass of 34-35 tons, equipped with Foton Cummins 11.8L, 470 horsepower diesel engine, the maximum speed of 110km/h.
Dongfeng Tianlong KL series launched a more economical flat-roof cab model in this batch, there are 25 tons of DFH4250D20 and 18 tons of DFH4180D7 two models, the height of the car is 3120/3230mm and 3110mm, although compared to the current cab is obviously "shrinkage", but the configuration combination of the middle and high flat top is also a must-have for the traction basic type. In terms of power, the two vehicles are equipped with Dongfeng commercial vehicles Longqing 10.8L and 465 horsepower and Dongfeng Cummins 8.9L and 430/400/360 horsepower diesel engines respectively, with a maximum speed of 89/110km/h.
Alternative fuels account for more than half, and Xiamen Golden Dragon "second OEM" aerospace Linghe
From the perspective of tonnage: Since there is no towing coach car to join, this batch of new products are all concentrated in the three-axle 25 tons and the two-axle 18 tons, respectively, 39 models and 4 models. The long-term weakness of 18t has not eased, and NEVs are once again absent. More than half of the 25 tons are new alternative fuels, and the lead is extremely obvious.
By fuel: This batch of diesel power continues to occupy 46% of the 20 models and is tilted towards 6×4. Gas power has a place, and new products of LNG and CNG are available. The heat of new energy power has not decreased, with a total of 15 BEVs, more than 1/3 of the proportion, and a total of 5 FCVs also accounting for more than 10%, reaching a total of 47% of the share. The relatively stable NEV penetration rate in the past six months also indicates the main direction of the current truck electrification, and traction, dumping and sanitation have become the first areas for electric heavy trucks.
There are 3 new gas-powered products in this batch, in addition to the jiefang JH6 series "Eagle Way" business class, there are 2 models:
SAIC Hongyan declared the Jieshi series CQ4257SD13384N semi-trailer traction car, CNG power, the cylinder cabin is located behind the cab, similar to the common arrangement of the BEV tractor power battery. The vehicle has a curb weight of 10.17 tons, a maximum traction mass of 38.7 tons, 6 groups of suspension optional, equipped with a 12.8L shangchai, 500/480/460/440 horsepower gas engine, and a maximum speed of 89/120km/h. Relying on the abundant gas source in the Sichuan Basin to develop gas power is also one of the characteristics of western traction enterprises.
X5000S series as the latest launch of Shaanxi Qi Delong "centrist" representative, is also actively carrying out the basic layout, this batch of declaration of SX4189XD1TLQ1-S traction car, LNG power, the largest optional 4 groups of gas cylinders. The vehicle has a curb weight of 9.2/10 tons, 4 sets of suspension optional, equipped with Weichai 12.54L, 460/430 horsepower gas engine, decent power, the maximum speed of 89/110km/h.
Xiamen Jinlong previously used Jirui united U system to carry out three-electric restructuring, just like the Yutong Group with the cab system out of the same door, the front fence was slightly used as a "scientific and technological" trimming of new energy, and declared its own new energy traction products. For example, the XMQ4250FCEV4 fuel cell semi-trailer tractor declared in this batch is equipped with Chongqing Guohong hydrogen energy fuel cell + Ningde era LFP power battery, and Jinlong New Energy 400kW drive system.
At the same time, Liaoning Aerospace Linghe, which currently belongs to Beijing Aerospace Science and Technology, uses Xiamen Jinlong's new energy tractor as a base car, and declares the LH4250EBEV-switched pure electric semi-trailer tractor, which is equipped with ningde era LFP power battery and 360kW drive system of Tebaijia. This kind of "secondary OEM" is rare in the entire commercial vehicle industry, and may only appear in some new energy vehicle types that are still in the early stage of development, especially for enterprises that do not yet have a production and marketing scale and are unwilling to invest in private model cabs. Previously, Beijing Aerospace had a close cooperative relationship with some enterprises in the north, and now with the flow of talents and large troops going south, the previous cooperative relationship has also been transplanted into the new enterprise, becoming a model of "you have me, I have you" - sometimes it must be lamented that the circle of commercial vehicles is indeed very small.
Ewell into a new growth pole of BEV batteries, XCMG Hanfeng P9 & Dongfeng Huashen T7 hydrogen energy traction
With the big wave of the power battery industry, a situation of "one super and many strong" has been formed. In addition to the leading enterprise CATL of the Ningde era, several other well-known enterprises are also "attacking the city and seeking fighters" at their own pace, such as AVIC Lithium Battery, Rongsheng Mengguli, Lishen Power, and the more prominent Eve of Ewell Lithium Energy in this batch. Among all 15 BEV traction new products in this batch, Ningde Era is 9 models, and Yiwei Lithium Energy is 6 models, both of which have power exchange and slow charging modes, and the ratio is 2:1. Among them, sany Jiangshan's 4 new products all use the LFP power battery of Hubei Yiwei Power Co., Ltd., and the other two new products are also used:
Geely Sichuan declared the remote G1E series DNC4259BEVGHDM3 power-swappable pure electric traction car, which is a new generation of traction products independently developed by Geely Commercial Vehicles, which is more representative. The vehicle has a curb weight of 10.5 tons, three sets of small pieces of spring suspension optional, a maximum traction mass of 38.37 tons, and is equipped with a 360kW drive system of CRRC era, with a maximum speed of 89 km/h.
Dayun Automobile declared the N8E series CGC4250BEV1Z8 pure electric traction car, and it is also the earliest model platform for Dayun to carry out electrification attempts. The vehicle has a curb weight of 9.8 tons, 4 groups of small pieces of spring suspension optional, the maximum traction mass of 39 tons, equipped with Suzhou Green Control 395kW drive system, the maximum speed of 89km/h.
The five hydrogen tractors in this batch include FAW Jiefang JH6 series CA4250P26T1FCEV (Qingdao Haizhuo fuel cell + Ningde era LFP power battery), Sany Jiangshan series SYM42503S1FCEV3 (Shenzhen hydrogen blue fuel cell + Ewell lithium energy Hubei LFP power battery) and xiamen Jinlong 1 mentioned above. In addition:
XCMG Automobile used the more high-end Hanfeng P9 platform to declare the XGA4252FCEVWC fuel cell semi-trailer tractor, and its relatively complete integrated cab front and new energy attributes are more appropriate. The vehicle has a curb weight of 11.3/11.85/12.4 tons, 6 sets of leaf spring suspension optional, a maximum traction mass of 37.57/37.02/36.47 tons, equipped with Xinyuan power fuel cell + Ningde era LFP power battery, Suzhou Green Control 360kW drive system, the maximum speed of 89km/h.
Dongfeng Group declared huashen T7 series EQ4250GLFCEV fuel cell semi-trailer tractor, with a curb weight of 11.95 tons, 10 leaf spring suspension before and after 9, a maximum traction mass of 36.92 tons, equipped with Sichuan Rongxin Energy Fuel Cell + Ganzhou Yipeng LMO power battery, Shandong Zhonglian Energy 320kW drive system, the maximum speed of 89km/h.
Among the 15 beev traction new products in this batch, there are 10 power-changing models and 5 slow-charging models. Overall, the cumulative proportion of BEV new products in 11 public batches this year remains in the power exchange type: slow charging type = 2:1, and the pattern of this batch continues to be consistent with the annual balance of power, and its so-called "cannot run out of the general trend".
Nowadays, the power exchange mode has been recognized by the entire pure electric truck industry, and the pure electric commercial vehicle exchange standard drafted by the secretariat of the Electric Vehicle Subcommittee of the National Automobile Standard Committee has completed the second working meeting, and the 5 draft standards for the exchange of electrical interface, power exchange cooling interface, power exchange mechanism, power exchange battery pack and vehicle and battery pack communication of pure electric commercial vehicle vehicle on-board power exchange system have been discussed. For an emerging technology route, if it can be escorted by national standards, it will maximize the resistance to market promotion.
Fawc Dongfeng Heavy Duty Truck is on a par with 4 models of crane traction that cannot be ignored
A total of 14 enterprise groups in this batch declared new traction products, of which the top 8 with a new number of more than 1 model totaled 37 models, accounting for 86%. The penetration rate of this batch of new energy is 46.5%, and the three consecutive batches are maintained at about half (52.9%-46.8%-46.5%), and mainstream enterprises are involved. Specifically:
The first echelon is all 7 models, namely FAW, Dongfeng and Sinotruk, the three traditional heavy-duty vehicle groups. Among them: FAW includes 6 models of FAW Jiefang Headquarters and 1 model of FAW Qingdao, the latter of which is the Jiefang JH6 series CA4250P26T1FCEV fuel cell traction vehicle, which is also its first hydrogen tractor. Dongfeng Group includes 2 Models of Huashen Series and 5 Models of Dongfeng Commercial Tianlong KL Series. The SINOTRUK series includes 3 models of Sinotruk Jinan (1 T5G and 2 TH7), 2 models of Sinotruk Jishang (Shandeka) and 2 models of Sinotruk Chengdu (Howo V7), and the new energy force is very large.
Sany series includes 5 models of SYM new energy and 1 model of Huqi HQC diesel power, which are also jiangshan series. The rest are Shaanxi Automobile Group ICE new products and Geely bev new products are the same 3 models, the latter including Geely Sichuan 1 model and Geely Valin 2 models. SAIC Hongyan Jieshi series and Qingling Motors giant GIGA series are both 2 new ICE power products.
This batch has a total of 4 new models of vehicle-mounted lifting and traction transport vehicles, and Dongfeng and Sinotruk have joined the field, reflecting the exuberant vitality of the niche market that should not be underestimated:
Photo: C3