Today's information directly made real estate stocks run wild, I inquired in many ways, and I tend to think that the information is accurate. This is also in line with the recent policies to stabilize the property market in various places.
In the past year, the central and local governments have successively introduced the first wave of policies to remove purchase restrictions and reduce mortgage interest rates, focusing on the demand side, with the aim of making more people willing to buy houses. Although it had a certain effect, it did not meet expectations.
In the current situation, stabilizing the property market requires deeper measures, that is, supply-side policies. I understand that the supply-side measures are divided into two parts: restricting the supply of land and the government's acquisition of housing stock.
Restricting land supply, as we mentioned in the previous article, has a document, and the follow-up will see the effect of implementation. The general direction is that cities with inventory for more than 36 months will stop supplying land, and the number of land supplies will be limited for more than 18 months.
Another blockbuster policy is the current trade-in, that is, the storage model. The government buys the stock of houses, which may be new houses, and the priority is to projects that need to be delivered so that these projects can be completed smoothly.
It may also be the target of the acquisition, so that the buyer has the motivation and money to replace the new house. Various places will choose some new homes as places that can be replaced.
So what do you do with the house you bought back? The answer is affordable housing, the government originally made affordable housing through new construction, and now it is the acquisition of stock housing to solve the problem.
I have to say, it's a pretty good plan. In fact, in 2016, Guangdong Province used such a method, that is, state-owned enterprises will set up a state-owned leasing platform, purchase stock housing as affordable housing, and the policy proposal is also a supply-side reform.
The biggest problem with this solution is where does the money come from? With the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds, this answer is gradually becoming clear. There is a high probability that the state will issue ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and then support the PSL (China Development Bank loan) that was used last time. The only uncertainty is how much money it will have. Too little money to have no effect; Too much money will inevitably increase government debt.
It is estimated that it will increase slowly and pilot first. Tomorrow Friday, after the meeting, there should be policies released one after another at the end of the week, so let me go back and see what it looks like.
I was not very optimistic about the first wave of these demand improvement policies, but if the second wave of supply-side policies, especially the policy of buying stock houses, is vigorously rolled out, I think the market is very likely to stabilize and rebound.
After the supply is gradually digested, the demand will gradually stabilize, and the property market in the first and second-tier cities should stabilize and return to a new equilibrium between supply and demand. Of course, those who fantasize about housing prices returning to their previous highs are expected to be disappointed...