The once invincible BBA has finally become Nokia in the tide of new energy.
Since 2021, a wave of new energy vehicles has been set off in China, and the penetration rate of new vehicles has continued to rise.
The "new forces" of the former army frequently set sales records and sprung up; bydir and Tesla, the Chinese army, seemed to be the mainstay, protecting the basic disk of new energy vehicles; the electric sub-brands supported by domestic traditional car companies as a rearguard, and then came to the top.
For a time, the new energy industry blossomed and became the most certain development direction in China.
But it always feels like something is almost there.
Although the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 20%, it is undeniable that fuel vehicles are still the absolute protagonists of the automobile market.
Moreover, the ownership of fuel vehicles is still very large, and the hegemony of traditional fuel vehicles has not followed the electrification transformation on a large scale, so that the technical path of traditional vehicles has not yet been confirmed.
Even if they switch to new energy sources in order to reduce carbon emissions and reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, traditional car factories still have a variety of paths to choose from, such as hydrogen energy and oil-electricity hybrids.
However, which technical solution is the direction of future certainty has not been unanimous for a while.
If you only look at domestic electric vehicles, the prosperity of a hundred schools of thought has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. However, there is always a suspicion of self-talk in the hilarity, the reason is that it has not yet been recognized by the international traditional head players.
In April, the top three BBA (BENZ Mercedes-Benz, BMW BMW, Audi Audi) finally released pure electric flagship or concept models, joining the big family of electrification competition.
Originally, all three cars were planned to be released at the Beijing Auto Show, but due to the postponement of the auto show, the BBA's calculations were disrupted.
However, today is different from the past, the BBA, which is already "backward", does not dare to risk delaying the release of new cars, so it has invariably launched its own new pure electric vehicles one after another.
The big guy arrived and confirmed the last step of the electrification revolution.
BMW i7
Source: BMW China official website
However, can the "late" BBA electric vehicle continue the glory of the era of fuel vehicles?
BBA advantage no longer
With a long history and mature and stable technology, BBA has made the limelight in the era of fuel vehicles, and every new car release can set off a trend storm.
However, after entering the era of electrification, everything was turned upside down. The technological leadership of the engine and transmission no longer exists, and even the advantages of the past will become a resistance to change.
The near-perfect supply chain is the magic weapon for BBA to stay ahead, and it has maintained close cooperation with many unique and special Tier1 or Tier2 suppliers for a long time, resulting in other manufacturers even if they want to imitate it can not find a way and way. The high technical threshold scares off manufacturers who want to catch up, and they are not afraid of the risk of being surpassed.
However, in the era of electrification, not only the automakers have changed their blood, but also the parts manufacturers are facing the opportunity to reshuffle.
The attempts and iterations of different technical paths have made the "secret recipe" of veteran parts manufacturers lose their charm, and more alternative solutions can be selected by emerging OEMs, and the BBA is no longer majestic.
The most obvious manifestation is the BBA's dependence on the traditional path - oil to electricity. It's the easiest way to transform, the same or similar design, the near-constant supplier and supply scenario, just the way to drive change.
It has not only achieved the promotion of energy and caught up with the tide of new energy, but also retained its brand status in the minds of old customers or traditional supporters. Neither radical nor conservative, it looks like a near-perfect transition.
Unexpectedly, the trend of electrification progressed so quickly, and the seemingly "moderate" oil-electricity hybrid path had not yet found its own position, and it was directly surpassed by the pure electric scheme. The same "moderate" oil to electricity has also suffered from sales Waterloo.
In 2021, BMW sold more than 21,000 pure electric iX3 models, the highest sales of electric vehicles in the BBA. In contrast, the annual sales of the Mercedes-Benz EQC are only 5800 units, and the Audi e-tron is even less than 1000 units.
The design of new energy vehicles is completely different from the concept of traditional fuel vehicles, which makes oil to electricity have many disadvantages.
Relatively high prices, short boards of mileage, lack of intelligence, and no improvement in the space in the car are all the culprits that restrict the BBA"'s "test water" models from becoming popular.
Therefore, the BBA is "anxious" to release a new flagship under a new generation of pure electric platforms, intending to regain the initiative in the new era of automobiles.
However, the BBA in the era of fuel vehicles relies on the "hard power" of chassis, engine, transmission and so on, far away from other competitors and riding the dust.
The author visited a number of Beijing auto repair shops, and practitioners have said that the advantages of BBA are concentrated in advanced engine and transmission tuning.
The BBA uses a "silky" fuel vehicle driving control experience to "hang" the remaining models of various brands. The car drives better, and the sales and popularity naturally go up.
Through years of accumulated reputation, BBA has gradually formed a reliable endorsement of quality and technology, leading the consumer trend in the market.
At the same time, the wind direction under the trend stimulates consumers to unconsciously follow the trend to buy a car, making consumers who buy BBA more superior, so that the virtuous circle is the only way for BBA to last for a long time.
Whether it is high-end processing equipment or processing precision, other manufacturers can not look back. 12-cylinder and 8-cylinder engines are the magic weapons that foreign manufacturers rely on to "show off".
On the other hand, domestic fuel vehicles, even if they have been vigorously developed for more than ten years, it is still difficult to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies. Everywhere is subject to people, losing the opportunity to catch up or even overtake.
Domestic cars have no engine, for a long time.
Fortunately, entering the era of electrification, the almost homogeneous electric drive has brought everyone back to the same running line, and the first-mover advantage of "engine and gearbox" has disappeared, and the motor has erased the absolute advantage of power.
Obviously, if the BBA wants to get a piece of the pie in the era of electric vehicles, innovation is the only way out for them.
There is not enough room for innovation
When the advantages of the powertrain are no longer there, then the BBA has set its sights on the smart cockpit. In this field, although they have innovations, they have few designs that make people shoot cases, and they lack revolutionary qualitative changes.
Taking Mercedes-Benz's new EQS SUV as an example, the most eye-catching thing is the triple screen. Compared with the more common split-screen or independent PAD screen solutions, the full large screen completely integrates almost all the controls of the whole car, avoiding abruptness and fragmentation, which is the concentrated embodiment of intelligence.
Mercedes-Benz EQS interior (EQS is the same as the car screen of EQS SUV)
Source: Mercedes-Benz official website
While the screen does look cool at first glance, it's inferior to Mercedes-Benz's own previous innovations. A few years ago, Mercedes-Benz took the lead in realizing the electronic screen of the instrument panel and the entertainment screen in the S-Class luxury car, and for a long time, it was known worldwide as a feature of Mercedes-Benz.
The triple screen of EQS and EQS SUV can only be said to be a quantitative change on this basis, just larger, wider, brighter, clearer, and has not exceeded the expected breakthrough.
Coincidentally, BMW has also focused on the car screen. Not only is the front screen designed in a one-piece body, but the larger entertainment screen is moved to the rear row, just like a smart mobile theater.
BMW i7 interior
Source: BMW China official website
In addition to the screen, interior materials, sound, and mood lights are also the top priorities of BBA. Material upgrades, sound upgrades, still just quantitative changes.
However, although the interior is more luxurious, the cost is not cheap, and the price of millions of yuan is often worthless, corresponding to such a grade of interior.
Moreover, from the perspective of supply chain, BBA's luxury-grade interiors do not have too many leading edges, such as domestic such as Weilai (09866. HK), Ideal Car (02015. HK, hereinafter referred to as Ideal) and Xiaopeng Automobile (09868. HK, hereinafter referred to as Xiaopeng) and other "new forces" can also compete with them.
In the range of 200,000-400,000 yuan, the interior decoration does not lose BBA, and the cost performance is even more explosive BBA.
NIO ET7 interior
Source: Weilai official website
It's clear that the smart cockpit leaves little room for innovation at the BBA. Coupled with the continuous iteration of the intelligent voice system, BBA's previous technical reserves are not much useful.
What the BBA can do, "Wei Xiaoli" can also do; and what "Wei Xiaoli" is doing now, the BBA may not be able to keep up.
Intelligence is the main direction of domestic electric vehicles.
Secondary driving automation has almost become the standard of the "new forces", lidar, millimeter wave radar, ultrasonic radar and a variety of cameras, together to create a set of super-perception system, with the car's internal powerful computing power, is moving towards fully autonomous driving. And in the BBA's class, there is no sign of keeping up.
Taking Xiaopeng P5 as an example, the car is equipped with 2 lidars, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter wave radars, 5 automatic driving monocular cameras, 1 forward three-eye camera, 4 surround view monocular cameras, 1 driver monitoring camera, and many intelligent sensors working together to create a 360-degree perception system without dead angles, accumulating experience for the future full unmanned driving.
Source: Xiaopeng official website
On the road of intelligence, BBA is gradually drifting away.
The end of the crossbow
To open a BBA is to have face.
This is an "inherent" concept deeply rooted in domestic consumers.
There is a line in the movie "Big Shots": "The neighbors around you either drive a BMW or a Mercedes, if you drive a Japanese car, you are embarrassed to say hello to people."
"Big Shot" was made in 2001, which means that the BBA has been on fire for more than two decades.
This initial setting of "not seeking the best, but seeking the most expensive" makes consumers convinced: buy a car to buy BBA, can not buy a loss, can not buy deceived. Although the low cost performance on paper is almost well known, the high price and low match still do not change the degree of BBA's popularity.
With the acceleration of electrification, the traditional powerhouse BBA has been driven off the altar by domestic electric vehicles, and the new car-making forces have taken over the banner of high-end. The so-called one step can not keep up, step by step can not keep up, last year's electric vehicle sales data also proves that the BBA has indeed gone far.
In the first quarter of this year, Mercedes-Benz's global cumulative delivery volume reached 501,600 units, of which 22,000 pure electric models, accounting for only 4.37%.
During the same period, BMW sold 596,900 new cars (including MINI and Rolls-Royce) worldwide, of which 35,000 pure electric models were sold (including BMW and MINI), accounting for only 5.86%.
It can be seen that electric vehicles account for a very low proportion of BBA, and sales are not optimistic. You know, if it is not affected by the domestic supply chain, the monthly delivery volume of "Wei Xiaoli" should be more than 10,000. In other words, "Wei Xiaoli" can already compete with BBA on the global platform.
The BBA is finally starting to turn around, but the elephant dancing is destined not to be so easy. It was difficult for the ship to turn around, and the new forces started from scratch, but instead they were lightly armed and fearless.
When you have nothing, you have nothing to lose.
For the BBA, the hardest thing is to take your own life.
In the era of mobile phones, Nokia is reluctant to change its own life, resulting in the collapse of the once-popular mobile phone building, which is eroded by new entrants Apple and Samsung, and the market has undergone earth-shaking changes.
Can "Wei Xiaoli" emulate Apple Samsung to become the BBA of the next era? Time will give us the answer.
Chen Qingtai, chairman of the Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said at last month's meeting, "Smart cars are subverting functional cars. In this automobile revolution, the mainland automobile industry has changed lanes first, achieved some first-mover effects, and provided opportunities for the mainland to change from a big automobile country to an automobile power. ”
Indeed, time is precious, opportunities are rare, and the "honeymoon period" of domestic electric vehicles will not last too long.
Similarly, there is not much time left for the BBA.