After the release of various rankings in the automobile market in March, everyone lamented that there were many changes, the pace of production and marketing could not be controlled, and the strong and weak could not be summarized in three words. The epidemic continues to impact the supply chain of the automobile industry, especially in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places, the suspension of work and production is worrying about the brake circles; at the same time, the global chip supply problem cannot be solved in the short term. Think deeper, the epidemic is a fig leaf and a magnifying glass. It makes the participants who cannot keep up with the pace of the times decently backward, and the deep-seated industrial structure problems in the "suffering of all sentient beings".
01
When is BYD NO.1? Domestic products have a long way to go to strengthen themselves
At the beginning of the month, after xiaobian forwarded the production and sales ranking of the manufacturers of the association, a netizen asked: "When will BYD be the champion of monthly sales?" Triggered a second discussion in the comment area, someone pointed out that "it depends on when BYD's production capacity is brought up."
BYD's sales target this year is 1.2 million units, and it is reported that as of now, its undelivered orders have accumulated 400,000-500,000 units, and the production capacity bottleneck needs to be broken. In 2022, BYD's planned nine major vehicle bases will be launched one after another.
BYD is "the first traditional car company in China to announce the cessation of fuel vehicle business", is BYD traditional? It was not traditional in the beginning. As a technology company that started with batteries, BYD's current industries span IT, automotive, new energy and rail transit. Even if it is a car, its ambition is not limited to selling the car, but to create an independent and controllable supply chain and become an international Tier 1.
Usually, the main engine factory through the control of multi-level suppliers to achieve lean production, as far as possible to pass on the inventory pressure, and the Japanese car companies are proud of the "flexible production" is also extremely opposed to redundant waste, this business philosophy has been running for many years, has become an industry textbook. However, after the epidemic disrupted the global supply chain, everyone suddenly found that the car companies in a slightly better condition were actually hoarders! For example, the higher BYD and Tesla.
BYD and Tesla's original intention of insisting on autonomy and controllability are not the same, but now the industry has begun to re-examine the lifeblood value of "autonomous controllability", thus exposing the ultimate anxiety - what is autonomy? What can we control? Is it still too late? In the era of fuel vehicles, the focus of Chinese car companies is on the market, not technology, and parts giants such as Bosch and Continental are also willing to deliver semi-finished products to us. In the era of new energy, everyone is fighting for the dominance of the technical level.
In addition to the transformation of the new four modernizations in addition to coping with the double carbon target, it will also lead the Chinese automobile industry to switch to a new track; if the transformation of new energy vehicles, more than 70% of the traditional parts system must be reconstructed, and we have accumulated a certain amount of accumulation in the three-electric system, which is an unprecedented opportunity, but the current chip problem has become the shortest board under the barrel. It's clear that it's just getting started.
When will we be able to change from an auto power to an auto power? Some industry insiders have long pointed out that "the bottom of the auto power is the parts power", and this round of the epidemic has accelerated this sense of urgency. It is reported that in the first quarter, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has deeply implemented the action of tackling the tough problems of automobile chips, and has sorted out and opened up the blockage points of the industrial chain supply chain in the field of automobile manufacturing, and established a three-level supply early warning mechanism for bulk raw materials.
02
There is no altar in the car market, the Haval H6 or the last god car
When you see that the Haval H6 in the SUV list has slipped to fourth, and in front of it are Model Y, BYD Song and Changan CS75, it is inevitable to sigh: the era of a god car is still over!
When searching the Internet for Haval H6 sales, it is easy to find "95 consecutive months of domination!" The time shows that the time is last May. By the end of 2021, the publicity was changed to "winning the SUV sales championship for a total of 100 months". In fact, in the second half of last year, Changan CS75 and BYD Song had already challenged the Haval H6 and finally achieved surpassing in the first quarter of this year; and it can be predicted that this is not an occasional surpass. Fortunately, this catch-up happens between Chinese brands.
There is no intention to disparage the Haval H6, and I do not agree with the statement of "falling on the altar", where is the altar in the market competition? Still, we can't deny that the Haval H6 is a god car. This "god", of course, contains its own efforts (product power and channel power), and there are also horoscopic components. In the past, Great Wall Motors only built SUVs, not cars, it relied on "one leg" to break out. Ten years ago, no one could predict where the ceiling of the SUV market was, and could only take one step at a time; as more and more SUVs were built, consumers also received the education of car companies, the market cake became bigger, the head brand naturally shared more, and everything took it for granted.
Not only has the Haval H6 dominated the list for a long time, but its record of selling more than 80,000 in a single month (2017) is also difficult to replicate. Since 2018, the auto market has ended its high growth. In that year, the Golden Nine Silver Ten, Haval series models launched a sharp official decline, the adjustment range reached 15,000-2.4 million yuan. This move has left a large number of competitors gritting their teeth. In fact, no one could really threaten Haval at that time, but the Great Wall only wanted to keep "absolute first". As soon as it struck, it directly eliminated a number of weak brands. The larger the volume, the greater the profit margin, and the more confident it is to adjust the price.
If you want to sell more, you will reduce the price, the market share of sales will be high, the market share will be high, and if you have the pricing power, you will not worry about profits... There is nothing wrong with this logic, but there are two prerequisites, one end is the stability of consumer demand, and the other end is the stability of the supply chain – now, both have changed.
Nowadays, consumers have too many choices to buy a car, buy an electric car or a fuel car? There are several kinds of electric vehicles that can be on the green card, and even fuel vehicles are divided into hybrid and traditional fuel. Everyone can think clearly about the general category in order to further delineate the brand and model. Only by continuously launching new brands and models to stimulate consumer perception can car companies cope with the accelerated inner-volume market. In this case, which other car can stand alone?
Therefore, the legend of the Haval H6 cannot be copied. Under the background of lack of core and little material, no car company will die of no profit sales legend, including SAIC-GM-Wuling, which is also good at creating Shenche, and also includes Great Wall Motors itself.
03
Zeroing out brand equity is the most feared thing for established joint ventures
Judging from the current market situation, the acceptance of new energy vehicles by the Chinese people has exceeded expectations, and independent brands have indeed shown a strong trend. In the first quarter of this year, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger cars from January to March were 1.070 million units, an increase of 146.6% year-on-year. In March, the penetration rate of new energy by independent brands reached 41%, that of luxury cars was 34%, while the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brands was only 3%.
How do you view the single-digit penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brands? Cruelly speaking, zero brand equity is the most feared thing for the old joint venture. How mainstream you were before, how lonely you were after that.
In the past 30 years, Volkswagen, Toyota, Buick, Chevrolet, Citroën and other German/Japanese/American/French brands have spared no effort to continue to carry out publicity and investment around engine technology and control technology. In the era of fuel vehicles, car brands want to seize the market, in addition to product strength improvement, there must also be sustained sound - but thus, the image of joint venture brands has also been solidified. Brand equity may be cleared or refactored, including names, symbols, slogans, service experiences, and so on.
In the face of the menacing wave of electrification, some have different strategic visions, insufficient reserves, and there are not too many physical objects to speak of, such as Toyota and Honda. Some have electrification strength, but domestic consumers lack understanding of them, such as Ford and GM. Like Nissan, which already has relatively mature technologies and products, such as e-POWER, the cost of explanation is not low. When I recently exchanged with friends about buying a car, many people had a resolute attitude: "I like Volkswagen and Audi, but I buy new energy vehicles, and I will never buy these brands again!" ”
In fact, the Volkswagen brand is still good. Although the ID series will only sell 70,000 units in China in 2021, it is already a joint venture TOP.1, and there is also a zero mentality in marketing. Therefore, how to re-introduce themselves to Chinese consumers is a common issue for all established joint ventures.
Written in the end: Chinese enterprises have the most crisis consciousness of "the skin does not exist, Mao will be attached". Individual adversity can stimulate individual potential; collective crisis can lead to a greater level of awakening. This is a crisis, but it is also a turning point. The old things disintegrate at an accelerated pace, so that the new can be brought in earlier.