[This column is jointly produced by Tencent Auto and Kung Fu AUTO]
2587 words Duration to read 4 minutes.
Recently, the resumption of work and production in Shanghai has touched every nerve in the domestic 100 billion automobile industry.
On April 18, stimulated by the "Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of the Epidemic in Shanghai Industrial Enterprises resuming Work and Production (First Edition)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines") issued by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology over the weekend, the domestic A-share auto parts sector ushered in a long-lost ups and downs.
On the same day, the well-off shares in the vehicle sector rose and stopped, and the concept stocks of auto parts also set off a round of ups and downs, and many shares such as Zhongjie Seiko and Bojun Technology rose and stopped; at the same time, the Tesla concept rose by 2.84%, and the concept of new energy vehicle parts rose by 2.74%.
Although the capital market greeted the resumption of work and production in Shanghai with high enthusiasm, behind this, what we see is that the Chinese auto market has sounded a new round of alarm.
From the lack of cores and power to the recent soaring prices of raw materials, and then to the recent epidemics in Jilin and Shanghai, which led to the suspension of production of China's two largest automobile groups, the "fragility" of China's automotive industry chain has been repeatedly exposed.
Undoubtedly, the sudden impact of the epidemic has made it more difficult to manage the already complex automotive industry chain. This is mixed with the delay in returning employees to work, domestic and foreign logistics obstruction, material supply can not be guaranteed and other reasons, which can be seen from the resumption of production and work in Shanghai's automotive industry.
To this end, even after the comprehensive promotion of the resumption of work and production, what we still have to worry about at present is that on the one hand, the progress of the resumption of work and production in Shanghai may not be as expected, and on the other hand, how can the current sluggish demand for automobile consumption be really boosted.
(1) The epidemic has once again hit The Shanghai automotive industry, and the supply chain "anti-epidemic" test
As a key city that contributes nearly 3 million cars to the Chinese market every year, Shanghai not only has car leaders such as SAIC Motor, but also gathers many auto parts giants such as Yanfeng, Valeo, Aptiv and so on.
In mid-April, NIO announced that its vehicle production had been suspended and the delivery of vehicles had been postponed due to the suspension of production by supply chain partners; followed by the suspension of production by Great Wall's tank brands... Subsequently, He Xiaopeng and Yu Chengdong also jumped out one after another, saying that if Shanghai's automobile supply chain could not operate normally, the national automobile manufacturers would face the fate of stopping production in May.
On April 16, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology released the "white list" of the first batch of 666 key enterprises in Shanghai to resume work, of which the automotive industry chain related enterprises accounted for 40%. On April 18, SAIC Motor also launched a stress test for resuming work and production, but the effect was very limited.
Because there are still large-scale sealing and control areas in front of us, coupled with the intertwining of logistics stagnation, raw material shortages, supply chain instability and other factors, it is still difficult to predict when Shanghai's huge automotive industry chain will return to the normal operation level before the epidemic.
According to the "experience" of Wuhan in 2020, after the release of the "white list" of resuming work and production, the company can basically return to the normal production state within two weeks, so it is expected that it will not take too long for the Shanghai auto industry to fully resume production.
However, the round of suspension crisis faced by the Shanghai automotive industry has once again exposed the fragility of the automotive industry chain.
On April 18, Ideal Auto CEO Li Xiang posted on social media that in addition to solving the problem of parts supply in front of them, car brands should also analyze and troubleshoot the survival of small and medium-sized parts suppliers and provide decisive assistance.
In other words, the global automotive industry frequently encounters the dilemma of "supply cuts" due to various emergencies, which also makes the industry rethink how the collaboration of the automotive supply chain system and the supply of parts have become safer and more efficient.
In fact, since the lack of core problems lasted longer than initially expected, car companies have had to reconsider supply chain adjustments and production strategies.
For example, after the "lack of core" problem continues to ferment, more and more car companies have begun to bypass Tier 1 suppliers, directly establish communication channels with chip designers and foundries, and start to develop chips themselves; and in key aspects such as batteries and software, more and more car companies have begun to participate in investment and design, and strive to grasp more right to speak, not to buy ready-made "package solutions" at one time.
At the same time, in the era of "software-defined cars", the relationship between traditional auto companies and suppliers is also being reshaped, and after the cross-border entry into the automobile by technology companies and ICT companies, the boundaries between car companies and suppliers are becoming more and more blurred, and the speed of mutual penetration is increasing.
On the other hand, we can also boldly predict that the epidemic may further promote the new energy transformation of China's automotive industry. Because the complexity of producing an electric vehicle is much lower than that of a fuel vehicle, this can not only reduce the complexity of production, but also improve the degree of automation of production, which will inevitably produce much less uncertainty than the current production of fuel vehicles.
(2) In addition to ensuring supply, it is also necessary to boost consumer confidence
Shanghai's auto industry has been pressed the "pause button" due to the epidemic, and the production side is under pressure, in fact, the situation at the sales end is not optimistic.
The most recent March data released by the Association showed that China's automobile production and sales have shown some pressure. According to the data, the passenger car market retailed 1.579 million new vehicles in March, down 10.5% year-on-year and up 25.6% month-on-month.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics also shows that the total retail sales of auto consumer goods in the first quarter of this year fell by 0.3% year-on-year, especially the growth rate of -7.5% in March still makes people see the current problem of weak automobile consumption.
In fact, since last year, the growth rate of mainland automobile consumption has begun to slow down. The data shows that the total automobile consumption in 2021 was 4,378.7 billion yuan, although there was a 7.6% increase year-on-year, but in terms of the year-on-year growth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society, this growth rate was the lowest.
In the view of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, whether it is the lack of production capacity caused by the epidemic prevention and control in the past two years, or the consumption structure of commercial vehicles and passenger cars, there is a negative impact on the recovery of automobile consumption.
Of course, this is also mixed with the rise in vehicle prices caused by the price of raw materials, the lack of core, the delay in delivery caused by lack of electricity, and the rise in oil prices.
In fact, if this round of automobile production and sales in the country is greatly reduced due to the Shanghai epidemic, it may further prompt the state to introduce more stimulus policies to "rescue the market". For example, the earlier call for a highly voiced automobile consumption "tax reform" is undoubtedly the most direct way to stimulate the growth of automobile sales.
On the other hand, car companies should also make more innovations in sales and business models. For example, the value chain model of new energy vehicles has been guided by "sales + products + after-sales" in the era of fuel vehicles, and has evolved into "product experience + travel experience + travel services".
Although more and more car companies have begun to add experience stores, flagship stores, etc. to explore new sales models, there are still a few who can successfully achieve transformation. How to face users in more links according to product characteristics, infect users and then promote the formation of purchasing decisions, there is still a process.
Although there are many and complex factors inhibiting automobile consumption at present, we believe that with the formation of a new energy vehicle industry value chain, we believe that automobile consumption will also enter a new upward stage.
(3) Kung Fu shooting
The epidemic is like a double-sided mirror, one side reflects the tenacity and strength of the auto parts supply chain, while the other side feedbacks the weakness and constraints of the entire chain after the "black swan event".
Although it seems that after the shanghai epidemic, it seems that it is still difficult to see the car market pick up in the second quarter as desired, it can be confirmed that the "anti-epidemic" ability of China's auto industry will jump to a new stage. Our automobile consumer confidence may also be gradually boosted with a new round of industrial upgrading.