"Due to the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, the Tank 300 model involved a total of 8 supplier partners to stop work and stop operation, which affected the suspension of production of the Tank 300 model from April 14."
"Due to the epidemic situation, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another and have not yet recovered. Affected by this, WEILAI's vehicle production has been suspended. ”
"Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory may not resume work until May 15."
"If supply chain companies in And around Shanghai can't find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May."
"If Shanghai continues to be unable to resume work and production, after May, all technology/industrial industries involving Shanghai's supply chain will be completely shut down, especially the automobile industry!"
With the new round of the new crown epidemic in Shanghai so far without an inflection point, as one of the important domestic automobile industry bases, one of the Chinese factories of many of the world's leading auto parts suppliers, the supply chain crisis caused by Shanghai's strict sealing and control measures has begun to spread in the automotive circle, and even formed a panic.
At the same time, the epidemic began in Shanghai, but the impact was not limited to Shanghai, in addition to affecting the whole country, it also began to spread to the world.
On the 6th of this month, Mitsubishi announced that the Okazaki plant will stop production from the 11th to the 15th; on the 7th, Honda plans to reduce the production target of the Suzuki plant by 30%, and the production capacity of saitama manufacturing plant will be reduced by 10%; on the 8th, Daihatsu issued a production suspension warning, and the Osaka plant will stop production from the 11th. The reason for the suspension of production by the three overseas car companies is that the shanghai epidemic has affected the procurement and logistics of parts.
Some professionals have analyzed that if the epidemic in Shanghai cannot be controlled in a short period of time, then the impact caused by the epidemic control will become larger and larger, and the situations that have occurred like the above will become more and more serious, and what He Xiaopeng and Yu Chengdong say on social networks is absolutely alarmist.
On this point, I privately believe that the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the automotive industry does exist, but this impact is more like a short-term pain, which will neither hinder the momentum of the rapid development of China's auto industry nor shake the confidence of the long-term development of China's auto market.
A disastrous result like the one that has been rumored on the Internet will basically not happen unless the current round of the epidemic has been uncontrolled for a long time and there is a large-scale spillover, but this is something that is simply impossible to happen, so there is no need to over-sell anxiety about this matter, just maintain a certain sense of tension.
Past facts and figures speak for themselves. For example, Jilin province, where the epidemic broke out at the front end of the epidemic, has started to resume work in an orderly manner, FAW Group is currently fully resuming production and work, and the mainland has more than two years of practical experience in epidemic prevention and control, so the epidemic in Shanghai is bound to be only short-term, and at most it will only affect the production and marketing performance of this year's Q2, which is one of them.
Second, China's automobile industry after decades of development, the supply chain system has tended to be perfect, the scale is also very large, at present, in addition to the Yangtze River Delta region dominated by Shanghai, many parts suppliers are also in other parts of the country to set up factory layout, such as the Pearl River Delta region, Chengdu-Chongqing region, Wuhan area, and these factories are in normal production.
Third, in 2020, Wuhan was locked down for 76 days due to the epidemic, which had no less impact on the entire automotive industry than Shanghai today, but the domestic automobile production and sales reached 25.225 million and 25.311 million units respectively, down only 2% and 1.9% year-on-year, of which the production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased by 7.5% and 10.9% year-on-year, respectively.
Today's China's auto industry development momentum is better than the previous two years, for example, at the beginning of this year, the industry was affected by chip supply and the recurrence of the epidemic in many places, but the Q1 production and sales data still reached 6.484 million and 6.509 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 2.0% and 0.2% year-on-year, of which new energy vehicles were on the basis of the overall increase in prices in March, an increase of 122.4% year-on-year, which fully shows that China's auto market is resilient and has great development potential.
More critically, the problems exposed by the epidemic in Shanghai have now attracted the attention of relevant state departments and other regional governments, and the national epidemic prevention measures have been comprehensively upgraded, and the spillover of the epidemic has been controlled, which will not cause a nationwide resurgence of the epidemic. Although Shanghai is currently in difficulty, the zeroing of social dynamics is just around the corner.
At the policy level, the state has also supported and encouraged the development of the automobile industry this year. The executive meeting of the State Council held on the 13th clearly put forward that it is necessary to encourage bulk consumption of automobiles and home appliances; all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the incremental indicators of purchase restrictions have been implemented; and the consumption of new energy vehicles should be supported.
At other levels, the impact of the shanghai epidemic also has the opportunity to promote the transformation and development of the automotive industry. For example, in terms of sales, if the epidemic has led to users not being able to enter the store to see the car, will it accelerate the development of interconnected smart showrooms, accelerate the commercial application of VR and AR, develop new sales models or innovate sales channels? In terms of production, workers affected by the epidemic can not return to work, will it accelerate the automation of enterprises and accelerate the intelligent manufacturing upgrade of the automobile manufacturing industry? In terms of transportation, considering the long-term nature of epidemic prevention, in order to reduce the phenomenon of human-to-human transmission in public transportation places, will it further promote the rapid development of driverless technology and commercial landing?
All in all, it is a fact that the repeated impact of the new crown epidemic on the automotive industry is objective, but we should also be full of confidence in the development of China's automobile industry, and believe that the losses caused by the epidemic in Shanghai can be recovered, just like in 2020.
Compared with the current supply chain crisis caused by the epidemic, it is more recommended that some new car-making forces review their zero-inventory supply chain management system to solve the potential danger of using a single supplier but no backup for some parts. If you can be defeated in a supply chain crisis caused by the epidemic, how can you be eligible to participate in the fierce and cruel market competition in the future?