Editor-in-Chief | Zhong Kun
Author | Off the space
Edit | Chen Shuhao
Reports from car hoist circles
On April 3, BYD announced that it will stop the production of fuel vehicles from March 2022 in accordance with the company's strategic development needs.
In the future, in the automotive segment, BYD Automobile will focus on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. At the same time, BYD Automobile will continue to produce and supply fuel vehicle parts, and continue to provide perfect service and after-sales guarantee for existing fuel vehicle customers, as well as the supply of spare parts throughout the life cycle.
As soon as the announcement was issued, the whole network boiled in an instant, not only because this is the world's first giant car company to truly realize the suspension of pure fuel models, but also because countless people began to sigh that "BYD really dared to stop production of fuel vehicles." For a time, the interpretation and praise of the article based on the above two points came overwhelmingly.
We are obviously not so excited, in our opinion, BYD preemptively the first discontinued fuel vehicle, but in the past many years, both the success of the development strategy, but also the first half of the use of electrification to achieve curve overtaking of the stage of the results, and the so-called "intelligent electrification" of the second half of the "intelligent", is the next BYD more worthy of everyone's expectations.
Of course, for the reason why BYD can stop the production of fuel vehicles, but also dare to stop the production of fuel vehicles at this time, and will open the second half of the intelligent track of the sequence logic, we can also continue to watch.
The whole world is talking about electrification
But why is it only BYD that really stops production of fuel vehicles?
The suspension of fuel vehicles is actually not unusual. In the timetable that has been disclosed by major car companies, in the next few years, more than 5 global giant car companies will fully implement electrification and discontinue fuel models.
But what is strange is that in the current 2022, the only one in the world that has the ability to completely stop the production of fuel vehicles is BYD.
IT CAN DO THIS, BUT IT IS NOT EASY. As we all know, the global supply of ternary lithium has been relatively short, but unexpectedly a few years ago, the shortage of ternary lithium also once replaced lithium iron phosphate as the market leader of power batteries, but BYD has not given up lithium iron phosphate under the insistence of Wang Chuanfu, not only for thermal stability reasons, but also more importantly, is the safety of energy structure.
As can be seen from public information, at the 21st annual meeting of the Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum, Wang Chuanfu once said, "China cannot change from being necked by oil cards to being necked by metal nickel and cobalt cards."
The logic behind it is that ternary lithium batteries need to use metal cobalt and metal nickel, and cobalt is not available in China, and nickel is also very rare in China. At the same time, Wang Chuanfu also said such a sentence: "The battery that is truly promoted on a large scale must be a battery that does not rely on rare metals." ”
The far-sighted BLADE battery launched by BYD later has successfully transformed the new energy vehicle power battery into a healthy and sustainable development path, and as of today, it does not rely on rare metals, safe and supplies more controllable lithium iron phosphate, and has regained the throne of the first power battery.
Energy security, the price is guaranteed, the so-called "carbon peak, carbon neutrality" of the national "double carbon" strategic goal is possible to achieve, the whole human "innovation", "green" development concept, with scientific and technological innovation power, leading the transformation of the automotive industry; with green low-carbon cycle, promote social sustainable development and other great goals, there is a possibility of effective landing.
In other words, everyone understands the big truth, but from the perspective of the actual products in the market, to make consumers really satisfied, and is willing to actively embrace the new strategy, there is only one BYD.
New energy prices have risen sharply
Why does BYD dare to stop production of fuel vehicles at this time?
There is a second point that has the ability to stop production of fuel vehicles, why does BYD dare to stop production of fuel vehicles at this time node?
After all, there are many reasons to "oppose the suspension of production", such as SOME BYD fuel vehicles are still very new, such as the Song Pro Xiaoyun version has only been listed for less than a year, and for example, the cost of lithium batteries has just soared, and it is the most unfavorable time for the cost and price of new energy models.
But there is one reason to support the suspension of production: "The future must be a comprehensive new energy, the sooner the production of fuel vehicles, the sooner the formation of a larger new energy scale advantage." ”
So far, THERE are only two blade batteries promoted by BYD, pure electric conventional blade batteries and hybrid power blade batteries, corresponding to the USE of DM-i hybrid system is only three sets, namely EHS132, EHS145 and EHS160, of which EHS132 and EHS145 match with 1.5L engines, applied to Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i The EHS160 is mated to a 1.5T engine and is used in the Tang DM-i as well as the upcoming Han DM-i.
It can be seen that today's new energy BYD powertrain is highly unified, and the potential scale cost advantage of mass production and loading is very obvious; but what if we continue to retain fuel vehicles?
Not only does it need to keep the former 7-speed dual-clutch production line separately, but also several separate engine production lines, whether from the perspective of organizational efficiency or cost, it is not cost-effective, so naturally there is no need to continue to produce pure fuel vehicles.
At the same time, BYD's current planning in terms of battery and vehicle production capacity, as well as the price trend of upstream raw materials at the battery end, also support BYD's decision to stop production of fuel vehicles in March.
Through public information inquiries, IT can be seen that BYD's Fordy battery, in this year's 2022 planned production capacity of more than 280GWh, and next year 2023, it will exceed 400GWh, from the perspective of production capacity, has reached the exponential function of the steeper that the development stage, the future as long as the upstream raw material prices fall slightly, BYD in the blade battery and new energy vehicle scale cost advantage, can take off in an instant.
The price trend of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached this turning point in March, after a long rising stage, now the entire upstream and downstream of new energy are facing a short-term surplus situation after capacity expansion, superimposed on the social status quo of this year's weak economy and declining consumption power, which must mean that there will be a wave of price wars that promote the popularization of new energy on a larger scale, as well as the clearance of production capacity.
BYD took the lead in stopping production of fuel vehicles, through multiple advantages in technology, strategy and cost, that is, to firmly grasp the initiative of the future.
With the ability and the opportunity, why not simply stop the production of fuel vehicles?
Why is it said that only electrification is done well
Can you start being intelligent?
At a forum I attended last year, I learned that BYD executives clearly recognized the fact that the script of overtaking in curves was about to start the second half; and in terms of specific content, the first half was electrified, and the second half was intelligent.
In the first half, BYD has become the world's first one, which naturally laid a solid foundation for its preemptive start in the second half.
Electrification and intelligence, the future development of the car is inseparable from the two parts. Different from the traditional fuel vehicle with mechanical transmission, mechanical control-based structure, whether it is PHEV hybrid model or pure electric, new energy vehicles emphasize more on electronic control and electric drive, which crushes the traditional fuel model in response speed, digitalization and intelligence.
It is precisely for this reason that the assistance and multi-dimensional capabilities of an intelligent model demand such as automatic driving, vehicle domain control, and intelligent interaction are inherently more advantageous than pure fuel models when they are placed on the electrified model; at the same time, after establishing the advantages of the electrified track earlier, it is natural to be able to concentrate more on promoting intelligence to a higher dimension.
In contrast, we can see that a certain friend of BYD, although the intelligent start is early, the starting point is high, but the need to match the fuel vehicle and the new energy model at the same time, resulting in the speed of progress is not fast, and even in different models, because the structure of the vehicle itself is very different, resulting in the need to do more matching tests, laborious and unflattering.
After BYD stops production of fuel vehicles, the pace of intelligent new energy models will only become faster and faster. According to visible reports, BYD has carried out in-depth cooperation with major mainstream intelligent manufacturers around the world before stopping production of fuel vehicles in March, and will further deepen in the future.
In addition, unlike other manufacturers who are still concentrating on the current situation of L2+ assisted driving and L3 level automatic driving, BYD, which has discontinued fuel vehicles, has now set its sights on the more practical and subversive high-end automatic driving L4 and L5, in addition to holding and leading some high-end automatic driving hardware and algorithm companies, it is also constantly attacking the core patents.
As actual products, some may still be planning or research and development, but there are also upcoming appearances, such as the new car Seal that is expected to be listed this year, which not only has the appearance and positioning of the model 3, but also achieves a qualitative leap in intelligent performance, and it may be the first model that BYD will start in the second half.
How it actually performs, we are very much looking forward to it as everyone else.
Write at the end:
All the past is the prologue. Everyone has seen this action of BYD's suspension of fuel vehicles, but this action is not just a simple suspension of production, it is not only a phased summary of BYD's new energy strategy in the past ten years, but also the opening of the next intelligent chapter.
In the past few years, BYD's stock price has risen from more than ten yuan to more than 240 yuan with the story of value investment, and in the next half, BYD will write a more brilliant new story of value investment.
After all, to this day, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is still on BYD's shareholder list.
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