The author | Nie Yiyao
Produced | automotive grand view
Since March, it has successively erupted in Jilin and Shanghai, and the Omicron distributed in many points across the country has shown serious destructive power in the domestic car market.
On April 11, the Association released data showing that the retail sales of narrow passenger cars nationwide in March 2022 were 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year and 185,000 units lower than the same period last year.
This is the sacrifice that the domestic car market has to make in order to fight the epidemic.
It is worth mentioning that Jilin and Shanghai, where the epidemic was most severe in March, are the headquarters of the two major automobile groups FAW and SAIC, and there are also a large number of parts suppliers in the surrounding areas of the two places. The outbreak of the epidemic has seriously dragged down the production of car companies and parts suppliers in the two places, reflecting the terminal sales of the entire car market, which is not very optimistic.
However, compared with the overall sales volume in March, what is more cruel is the folding of the car market under the epidemic, of which the joint venture camp has been hit the most by the epidemic, and many brands have been bitter. In terms of independent brands, independent new energy brands represented by BYD are selling well.
The joint venture brand is bitter
Unsurprisingly, the joint venture brands of FAW and SAIC have been the most seriously affected by the epidemic, and the decline in terminal sales has been the most obvious.
FAW-Volkswagen retail sales in March were 126,000 units, down 40.2% year-on-year. Although FAW-Volkswagen held the March sales championship, it won Changan Automobile, which ranked second in sales, with a slight advantage of 0.6 million units.
FAW Toyota, which is also a joint venture brand of FAW, did not appear in the March sales data released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, and FAW Toyota has not yet announced its retail sales in March.
However, Toyota motor announced on April 8 that its new vehicle sales in China in March were 167,300 units, up 0.4% year-on-year.
According to the data of the Association, GAC Toyota's wholesale sales in March were 97,000 units, and it can be calculated that FAW Toyota's wholesale sales in March will not exceed 70,300 units. This is a year-on-year decline of at least 16% compared to FAW Toyota's sales of 84,000 units in March 2021.
The pandemic was a direct factor affecting the decline in sales of FAW-Volkswagen and FAW Toyota in March. It is understood that as early as March 13, FAW Group urgently issued a plant shutdown plan to cooperate with the prevention and control of the epidemic, and initially planned to stop production until March 16.
In fact, FAW-Volkswagen and FAW Toyota plants in Changchun have not yet resumed production. FAW Toyota's plant in Tianjin has also been shut down from time to time, and FAW-Volkswagen has only normal production at its Chengdu and Foshan plants.
The joint venture brand with FAW is also seriously affected by the epidemic, and there are also SAIC joint venture brands.
SAIC Volkswagen's retail sales in March were 78,000 units, down 34.6% year-on-year. SAIC-GM's retail sales in March were 70,000 units, down 40.5% year-on-year.
However, the FAW joint venture brands and SAIC joint venture brands are slightly different due to the impact of the epidemic.
From a time point of view, the outbreak of the epidemic in Jilin was earlier than in Shanghai, and the decline in sales of FAW-Volkswagen and FAW Toyota in March was more affected by the reduction in production at the production end.
SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM began to stop "partial production" in late March, and the decline in sales of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM in March was less affected by the production cut.
This can be confirmed by wholesale sales. In March 2022, FAW-Volkswagen sold 122,000 units wholesale, lower than its retail sales; FAW Toyota's data is not yet available. During the same period, saicid Volkswagen and SAIC-GM's wholesale sales were much higher than retail sales, reaching 110,000 units and 89,000 units.
What are the reasons for the serious impact on the retail sales of SAIC's joint venture brands in March?
The analysis given by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers is that due to the impact of the epidemic, the purchase demand for entry-level models of traditional fuel vehicles is rapidly declining, mainly because such car purchase groups have lost a large loss of work income during the epidemic and the purchase demand has been curbed, rather than transferred to new energy models.
As a result, domestic economic traditional fuel vehicles fell sharply, with sales of A-class fuel vehicles falling by 29% in March.
This explains why the decline in retail sales of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM in March was so severe.
In other words, the epidemic affected the sales of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM's hot-selling models, the A-class Langyi and Yinglang, which in turn dragged down their respective sales performance in March.
Of course, this is only one of the most intuitive factors.
Also affected by the epidemic, the sales of A-class fuel vehicles have seriously declined, and Dongfeng Nissan. According to the data, Dongfeng Nissan's retail sales in March were 67,000 units, down 33.5% year-on-year.
At present, the data at hand is that the sales of Dongfeng Nissan's ace model A-class car Xuanyi in March were 30,240 units, down 31.6% from 44,209 units in the same period last year.
It seems that the largest base and the largest demand for A-class fuel vehicles nationwide have been most affected by the epidemic because the car-buying group has suffered the most, thus having the greatest impact on the sales of hot-selling model brands.
However, in the mournful joint venture brand, it is not without a stunning existence, GAC Toyota is the upward trend under the epidemic.
GAC Toyota sold 88,000 units in March, up 26.9% year-on-year. This is mainly due to the Camry's sales of 22,518 units in March, accounting for about 1/4 of the total sales of GAC Toyota. Not suffering from the epidemic, and having such a strong B-class car sales responsibility, is probably the main reason why GAC Toyota is currently the most successful.
Independent new energy is on the rise
Along with the epidemic, there is a wave of new energy vehicle price increases triggered by the general rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles. However, in contrast to the rising price of new energy vehicles, it is the hot sales of terminals.
In March, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 445,000 units, up 137.6% year-on-year and 63.1% month-on-month, and retail penetration increased to 28.2%. In March, sales of new energy vehicles were still dominated by pure electric (BEV), with plug-in hybrid (PHEV) accounting for only 19% of the share.
Compared with the decadence of fuel vehicles, the strength of new energy vehicles is more prominent. In particular, WITH BYD's retail sales of 103,000 units, second only to FAW-Volkswagen and Changan Automobile, jumped to the third place in the march sales of manufacturers, and also became the leader in the new energy vehicle market in March.
As an independent new energy leading brand, BYD's sales trend in the past year can be described as flat. Except for a slight decline in February this year, all other months showed a steady upward trend from the previous month, and in June last year, they comprehensively surpassed Tesla and SAIC-GM-Wuling, and have since ridden the dust.
Judging from BYD's resolute determination to cut off the fuel vehicle business, comprehensively focus on new energy vehicles, and vigorously expand the scale of production capacity and promote the high-end of the brand, BYD should be ready to take advantage of the opportunity of this new energy vehicle sales outbreak and step by step.
In addition, the independent new energy brand that entered the good situation in March is GAC Aegean. In March, GAC Aeon's wholesale sales exceeded 20,000 units. As an independent new energy brand that has grown rapidly under the GAC Group, GAC Aeon has rapidly gained a foothold in the A-class pure electric vehicle market for a short time and has developed and grown, which is worthy of recognition.
In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles by some independent car companies in March also showed good growth.
For example, Chery Automobile and Changan Automobile achieved a year-on-year increase of 261% and 274% in sales of new energy vehicles in March, reaching wholesale sales of 20,400 units and 15,200 units, respectively.
However, the sales volume of the two in the new energy vehicle market is mainly borne by A0-class and A00-class pure electric vehicles such as Chery Little Ant, QQ Ice Cream, and Changan Benben. In some ways, the two companies still need to quickly layout and seize the market in terms of diversified products and higher-end model structures.
In contrast, the great wall, geely and SAIC passenger cars, which are also independent car companies, have a more bold and open diversified layout in the new energy market. Moreover, in March, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles of the three independent car companies were more than 10,000 units. Among them, Great Wall Motor's new energy brand sales were 15,100 units, Geely Automobile was 14,200 units, and SAIC Motor's passenger car sales were 10,900 units.
Among the new forces, Tesla is still an excellent existence. Tesla stopped production for two days on March 16 and 17, and on March 28, it said that it would suspend production at the Shanghai Gigafactory, and has not announced the resumption of production so far. But Tesla China's wholesale sales in March were 65,800 units, second after BYD.
In addition, new forces with wholesale sales of more than 10,000 units in March include Xiaopeng Automobile (15,400 units), Nezha Automobile (12,000 units), Ideal Automobile (11,000 units), and Zero Run Automobile (10,100 units).
The epidemic has come to an end in March, but the domestic car market in April is still in the midst of a struggle with the epidemic.
On April 9, Li Bin, CEO of WEILAI Automobile, said that due to the impact of the epidemic, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another and have not yet recovered. Affected by this, WEILAI's vehicle production has been suspended.
The epidemic is making many car companies and parts suppliers bear great pressure in production, supply chain, logistics, sales and other aspects, and they can only try to stabilize and wait and see how the impact of the car market sales in April will be.