If any "god car" is well-known in the Chinese market, Wuling Automobile must have a place.
From Wuling Hongguang to Hongguang MINIEV, SAIC-GM-Wuling embarked on a road of "building cars for the people". In 2021, Hongguang MINIEV achieved sales of 400,000 vehicles, creating a "phenomenon-level" product in the field of new energy vehicles. SAIC-GM-Wuling, which is well versed in hitting iron while it is hot, has also recently launched the "two million, five tens of billions" new energy strategic plan, once again showing the original intention of building cars for the people.
According to the plan, SAIC-GM-Wuling will build a million pure electric new energy platform, a million hybrid new energy platform, and five tens of billions of industries such as batteries, electric drives, electronic controls, business services, and robots. By 2023, strive to sell 1 million pure electric new energy vehicles. Today, we will go deep into this plan to see if Wuling's new energy strategy can finally come true.
Millions of sales rely on Hongguang MINIEV?
In this new energy strategic plan, SAIC-GM-Wuling mentioned that by 2023, the sales volume of pure electric new energy vehicles will reach 1 million. Such a goal planning requires us to explore in depth the possibilities of its achievement.
In 2021, SAIC-GM-Wuling new energy vehicle sales reached 452238, accounting for 27% of the company's annual sales performance, an increase of 160% year-on-year. And this part of the sales performance, all from pure electric vehicles. That is to say, purely from the perspective of data, if calculated at an annual growth rate of 160%, by 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million, which seems to be not very difficult.
Does this really have to be the case? But the picture is probably not so optimistic.
Judging from the specific sales composition in the past, the contribution of Hongguang MINIEV is indispensable. Launched in July 2020, this miniature pure electric vehicle turned out with a pleasing appearance and low price, with monthly sales of more than 50,000 vehicles, surpassing tesla Model 3 in one fell swoop and becoming the world's top new energy vehicle in 2021.
Since then, traditional car companies such as Chery, Changan, and Dongfeng Fengguang have followed up, tapping a blue ocean for the pure electric mini car segment. In 2021, Hongguang MINIEV achieved sales of 426,500 units, accounting for 94% of SAIC-GM-Wuling new energy vehicle sales.
One wins and one loses. A single model has become the pillar of sales, which means that for SAIC-GM-Wuling, it means that in the foreseeable future, the performance of enterprises will most likely rely on the above products, and if this particular model is no longer welcomed by the market, the company's sales will be significantly adversely affected.
And the adverse effects don't stop there. The "people's scooter" with a starting price of 28,800 yuan includes a power battery worth nearly 10,000 yuan, an electronic control system worth 1,000 yuan and a drive motor of more than 1,000 yuan, plus other car-making costs, labor, transportation, marketing and promotion costs, etc. The profit space of the product is minimal. Judging from the announced 2020 financial report, the total revenue of SAIC-GM-Wuling reached 72.927 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 142 million yuan. We boldly estimate that all net profit sources come from the car sales business, and its bicycle profit is only 89 yuan.
For such a product that does not make money, and may even sell more and lose money, why do traditional car companies still enter the game? This is inseparable from the new energy credit. In 2020, SAIC-GM-Wuling relied on Hongguang MINIEV to obtain 440,000 new energy credits, calculated at the then online transaction price of 3,000 yuan / min, and its conservative profit amount was about 1.3 billion yuan. And if there is no help of this car, Wuling also needs to spend money to buy new energy points to hedge the negative points of fuel vehicles, one in and one out, SAIC-GM-Wuling has an extra fast forward in the case of self-sufficiency, why not enjoy it?
However, with the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales, the price of new energy credits is falling into a routine of declining year by year, and the era of relying solely on new energy credits to "lie and win" has gone. According to public data, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach 5 million, and the value of new energy credits will be further reduced at that time, relying on points to make profits, and even surviving car companies will usher in huge survival challenges.
Judging from the sales performance of Hongguang MINIEV over the past year, since the launch of new cars, the average monthly sales volume has always remained around 30,000 units, and only three of the 20 sales months have exceeded 40,000 units, and the highest result is only 55,700 units in December 2021. This means that if you want to rely on Hongguang MINIEV to achieve the sales target of 1 million vehicles in 2023, the follow-up may enter a stage of weak growth, superimposed on the adverse effects of repeated epidemics, rising raw material prices and shortage of parts, and whether the million target can be achieved is still debatable.
Million Platform: Platform for Small Cars?
In addition to the sales target of one million vehicles, in this strategic plan, SAIC-GM-Wuling also highlighted the "two million" platforms: one million pure electric new energy platform and one million hybrid new energy platform. Let's look at the two platforms separately.
First of all, the million pure electric new energy platform, that is, the GSEV platform born of the hot-selling product Hongguang MINIEV, has added a Baojun KiWi EV to the platform, which is still "spinning" in small new energy vehicles.
Looking at traditional car companies, creating its own new energy platform has become a trend: BMW is about to build a new pure electric sports car based on the new pure electric platform Neue Klasse; the application of the Volkswagen Group MEB platform has officially entered the new energy era, pure electric SUV model ID.4 CROZZ and medium and large SUV model ID.6 CROZZ has been mass-produced off the production line; and in China, BYD e platform 3.0, etc., also on the basis of simplification of hardware to further reduce manufacturing costs.
It is not difficult to see that the layout path of traditional car companies is based on the combination of high-performance batteries + high-end models, hoping to release greater profit space and brand attributes through the architecture of the electrification platform. In contrast, SAIC-GM-Wuling, in the new energy strategy currently announced to the public, is still a GSEV series with small cars as the main development, whether it is market competitiveness or product prospects, it cannot directly compete with other mainstream car companies, and the core competitiveness is obviously greatly discounted.
As for the million hybrid new energy platform, SAIC-GM-Wuling defines it as the FDEV series, creating a benchmark for THE EV driving experience of HEV energy-saving fuel vehicles, LOW-COST PHEV and worry-free REEV mileage. According to the supplier's public information, the Wuling hybrid project is expected to start mass production in the second half of 2022, and it is predicted that the first model will be the MPV Capgemini hybrid version, with a starting price of 140,000 yuan and a hybrid system composed of a 2.0L naturally aspirated engine, electric motor and battery pack.
Starting from the hybrid system equipped with the home MPV, it is an effective path for the development of the hybrid system. However, in the case of the mature layout of various car companies, BYD Song MAX DM-i has been listed first, and has formed a precise blow to the Wuling hybrid project in many ways such as pricing and positioning, in addition to ultra-low fuel consumption, it can also enjoy green card exemption from purchase tax, which is not a small pressure for Capgemini.
The competitiveness of the battery industry is in doubt
According to the strategic plan, SAIC-GM-Wuling has also further subdivided related industries, focusing on batteries, electric drives, electronic controls, business services and robots to create a "five tens of billions" industry.
Taking the battery industry as an example, Wuling will build a battery industrial park with an annual output of 20GWh power battery system and 20GWh power battery cell capability to form a domestically competitive battery research and development and manufacturing technology and build a new energy battery industry base in Guangxi.
Previously, the SAIC-GM-Wuling GSEV high-performance power battery system was unveiled for the first time in September 2021, and the new system was jointly developed by SAIC-GM-Wuling, Tsinghua University and Keyi Power, which can be adapted to the iterative models under the GSEV global small pure electric vehicle architecture platform.
However, from the current battery supply of SAIC-GM-Wuling, Penghui Energy, Suzhou Keyi, Sunwoda, Suzhou Lingpan, etc., are all suppliers of their power batteries. It can be seen that at this stage, the battery production capacity of SAIC-GM-Wuling cannot yet achieve self-sufficiency.
With the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, the battery industry has indeed shown great potential for development. In the Ningde era, the "power battery brother" has ten production bases in Ningde, Xiamen, Liyang, Xining and other places, and currently has a power battery production capacity of 569GWh; and among car companies, BYD's power battery production capacity at the end of 2021 has also reached 135GWh.
As for The Hive Energy, which dreams of becoming the next Ningde era, according to its latest data, the production capacity under construction has reached 297GWh. By 2025, the planned global production capacity will be increased to 600GWh, and the goal has surpassed many domestic second-tier battery companies. In contrast, SAIC-GM-Wuling's 20Gwh capacity planning, coupled with an average capacity utilization rate of 75%, such a plan is still relatively conservative.
According to the data released by market research institute SNE Research, in 2021, the global power battery installed capacity, CATL ranked first in the world with an installed capacity of 96.7GWh, and BYD, the only car company in the top ten, reached 26.3% in 2021, ranking fourth.
Of course, the development of the power battery industry so far, has long broken the "volume to win" of the mortar, the future market is more of a test of enterprise research and development technology, industrial chain layout, financial support and other angles.
As a typical heavy asset and long return cycle industry, the power battery industry not only needs perfect industrial planning, but also the investment of the capital market is also indispensable. Also taking Hive Energy as an example, its cumulative financing amount in 2021 is 19.78 billion yuan, while AVIC lithium batteries, Fordy batteries, etc. are also preparing for listing, for SAIC-GM-Wuling, in the face of TWh smoke in 2025, a quiet battle is brewing.
In addition, affected by multiple factors such as the repeated epidemics, the power battery industry has also erupted a series of raw material price increase crises, and the impact of the upstream industrial chain is gradually eroding car companies, so the mainstream new energy models have experienced a sharp price increase, and the superimposed national slope factor is also a big test for car companies.
On February 7, SAIC-GM-Wuling announced that its Nano EV price increased by 3,000 yuan, although the pillar model Hongguang MINIEV has not changed, but this price increase has undoubtedly become a silent test. On March 24, SAIC-GM-Wuling, which could not be contained, once again announced an increase in the price of models, and the main sales models such as Wuling Hongguang MINIEV series, Wuling Nano EV, and Baojun KiWi EV were prominently listed, with an increase of 4,000-8,000 yuan.
At the same time, the recently launched DIY model Hongguang MINIEV GAMEBOY, in addition to the appearance, size, color and other obvious changes, the overall design and the old model is no different, but according to speculation, the model pricing will have a significant increase compared with the old model, industry insiders revealed that the price of its high-end model may exceed the 60,000 mark, or can be seen as a disguised "price increase means".
How to deconstruct the "big and complete" industrial pattern?
In addition to the battery industry, among the 10 billion targets, there are four areas such as electric drive, electronic control, business services, and robots, which also need to be cracked by SAIC-GM-Wuling.
In the 10 billion electric drive industry, SAIC-GM-Wuling will focus on the integration of electric drive systems and accelerate the development of products and production capacity construction of special transmissions, motors, bridges, and hybrid engines for hybrid vehicles. At this stage, Founder Motor, Shuanglin Shares, Wolong Electric Drive, etc., are important drive motor suppliers of SAIC-GM-Wuling, of which Shuanglin Shares has a nearly 50% ratio of Wuling MINI, Wolong Electric Drive provides drive motors for SAIC-GM-Wuling full series, and Founder Motors provides drive motors for Wuling Hongguang MINIV series models.
Overall, SAIC-GM-Wuling's electric drive system is still deeply dependent on suppliers, while the development of hybrid series products is still in the construction stage.
In the tens of billions of electronic control industry, independent power control software capabilities will be established to realize the independent development and manufacturing capabilities of controller software and hardware. At this stage, the main electronic control suppliers of SAIC-GM-Wuling are Huayu Electric and Ningbo Yangteng, the former has completed the construction of the flat-line motor production line, and obtained the fixed-point batch supply of some business of SAIC-GM-Wuling Hongguang MINIEV motor controller, it is reported that huayu electric electronic control system has more than 70% of its supply.
From the perspective of the above industrial layout, as a pillar model of SAIC-GM-Wuling, the core three-electric system of Hongguang MINIEV is still likely to rely on the industrial chain of external suppliers, and its own development and manufacturing capabilities are still relatively weak. Perhaps this is also the purpose of SAIC-GM-Wuling's release of the 10 billion strategy, but the ultimate destination of the 10 billion strategy is still unknown whether it is still a micro-electric vehicle such as Hongguang MINIEV.
At present, it seems that in the tens of billions of industries, the more prominent sector of SAIC-GM-Wuling is the commercial service. SAIC-GM-Wuling will create a diversified social space and channel form that young people love, establish a new retail model for automobiles and continue to iterate.
In order to achieve the implementation of the strategy, SAIC-GM-Wuling is actively exploring a new business model integrating retail, e-commerce and direct sales to create an online and offline integrated marketing system and diversified marketing model, and to carry out actions around the three aspects of direct user connection, value co-creation and big data drive.
As for the field of robotics, it is mainly focused on intelligent robots, intelligent logistics, intelligent production line design, etc., to carry out intelligent manufacturing factory transformation and intelligent upgrading, to improve the level of intelligence and networking of new energy vehicles, and the application of new materials in new energy vehicles.
On February 22, the new generation of Ling OS Lingxi system independently developed by it was officially launched with the Wuling Capgemini 280T model. It is reported that the new system will be optimized in terms of speech recognition technology and system wake-up time, making it a continuous iterative growth-oriented open intelligence ecosystem.
At the same time, SAIC-GM-Wuling is also like other car companies, facing many problems such as scarce metals and domestic chips "card neck", and it is urgent to build a "new four modernization" industrial chain with independent innovation and high-tech.
epilogue:
In any case, the introduction of the new energy strategic plan has pinned on the confidence of SAIC-GM-Wuling to rely on the transformation and upgrading of new energy, but in the long run, the core competitiveness of new energy vehicles still depends on higher-level electric vehicle products to achieve. Finding the correct positioning and strengthening confidence, we also look forward to SAIC-GM-Wuling to hand over a satisfactory answer sheet in the near future.