The automotive industry has accompanied humanity for more than 100 years and is now undergoing an energy switchover in which fuel is stepped into pure electricity.
And electric energy should not take long, will enter the era of hydrogen energy; the European Union in 2020 has issued the "EU Hydrogen Energy Strategy", this year China also issued the "hydrogen energy industry medium and long-term plan", hydrogen energy has attracted attention in the world's two major markets.
In which direction will the next hydrogen energy development be biased? Can hydrogen energy become the future of the automobile?
Why are hydrogen energy, which is not optimistic, doing?
At the moment when the development of power batteries is in full swing, hydrogen energy is generally not optimistic, because of the high cost and difficulty in transportation (storage). The price of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is also expensive, 2020 Hyundai Nexo, for example, the endurance of more than 600km is sold for more than 400,000, while the endurance of pure electric vehicles of about 600km is generally only more than 200,000.
The development of hydrogen energy industry and hydrogen energy vehicles, the difficulty is self-evident, the cost is one of the high thresholds; so why are there still car companies or countries still choose it?
What is hydrogen energy, this is a point that a large part of the population does not clearly define. Hydrogen energy is a secondary energy source, unlike coal, oil and natural gas can be directly mined, which means that hydrogen energy can be produced by clean energy, which is easier to obtain than the above energy, which is why Japan is keen on hydrogen energy development (more than 90% of Japan's oil and natural gas rely on imports). Next, how is the industrial chain of hydrogen energy structured? Upstream hydrogen production, midstream storage + fuel cells, downstream hydrogen refueling stations, factories.
What is the current state of the development of global hydrogen energy, a brief understanding of:
Germany plans to reduce emissions by 55% in 2030 compared with 1990, achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and the current development goal is committed to the comprehensive application of hydrogen energy; the basic strategy of Japan's hydrogen energy industry, mainly focusing on the application of vehicles and households, has basically opened up the hydrogen fuel cell industry chain; Australia issued relevant plans in 2019 to become a major player in the global hydrogen energy industry by 2030, to build a global hydrogen supply base; eu development planning, by 2050 hydrogen to meet 24% of the eu's total hydrogen China plans to form a hydrogen energy industry technology innovation system by 2030, and cover the hydrogen energy application ecology in transportation, energy storage, industry and other fields by 2035.
Specifically, china's hydrogen energy medium- and long-term planning is divided into three stages. In 2025, it is necessary to achieve about 50,000 fuel cell vehicles, deploy a number of hydrogen refueling stations, renewable energy hydrogen production of 100,000-200,000 tons / year, carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1 million to 2 million tons; hydrogen production in 2030, industrial layout has been improved; the whole industrial chain will mature in 2035.
Why do countries attach so much importance to hydrogen energy? First, hydrogen energy is a kind of clean energy, after the chemical reaction, the product is only water, will not cause pollution to the environment, zero carbon emissions, in line with the current green and low-carbon trends in the world; second, the source of hydrogen is extensive, through a variety of ways to produce can also be secondary regeneration; third, hydrogen energy is widely used, transportation, industry and power generation can be applied. Several good things are in one, which is also the reason why hydrogen energy is targeted by the international market and included in the development plan.
Is it difficult to prevent the popularization of hydrogen energy, is it storage and transportation?
The development of hydrogen energy is facing the same difficulties as the early stage of the development of the power battery industry, the industrial chain system is immature, and the problems caused by the immature industrial chain system will eventually be reflected in the inconvenience of terminal price and energy replenishment. The difficulties faced by the mainland hydrogen energy industry are not in production capacity and production, but in the immaturity of the industrial chain.
China is one of the world's largest hydrogen producers, with an annual production capacity of about 33 million tons; according to the plan, the mainland's demand for hydrogen may reach about 100 million tons by 2025.
From the current mainland energy structure and application scope, the entire hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stage of development, mainly demonstration applications, each link has not reached perfection, there is still a long way to go from large-scale market commercial promotion, there are technical difficulties, high cost problems. According to the information in the "Planning", the current scale enterprises of the whole industrial chain are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, And the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; the above three regions have the most basic industrial chain from preparation, storage and transportation, to refueling and use (fuel cell and system integration).
From the perspective of industry, the hydrogen energy industry chain is long, and it can be mainly divided into three links: upstream, middle and downstream. Upstream hydrogen production costs do not currently have advantages, especially the current cost of green hydrogen production is relatively high; midstream storage and transportation is an important difficulty, the current mainstream mode of high-pressure gaseous storage is only suitable for short-distance transportation, but the mainland to apply hydrogen energy in a large area requires long-distance transportation technical difficulties and costs are also increased, in addition to the cost of hydrogen refueling stations need to be taken into account; the application of downstream hydrogen energy, is still in the exploration stage, the "Planning" proposed that the ownership target of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2025 is 50,000.
Through the 2022 Winter Olympics, we can initially see the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy, the upstream is more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations, 1 electrolyzed water hydrogen production device, 7 green oxygen hydrogen production (the mainstream of future development) plant; the midstream is a hydrogen fuel cell supplier and core parts production line put into production; the downstream includes more than 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles, as well as high-pressure hydrogen storage torches.
If several important links in the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy are prioritized, then the most difficult to solve the hydrogen storage link in the middle reaches is the independent research and development of proton exchange membrane pre-production; followed by exploring the downstream application market, transportation, transportation, factory and other fields; the best solution is the upstream hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling station (the former has three mainstream technologies, the latter with money to solve).
The end of new energy, is hydrogen energy?
At present, the mainstream new energy forms on the market are pure electricity and hybrid, the main reason is that pure electricity and hybrid vehicle technology is relatively simple (compared to hydrogen energy), and major manufacturers are actively researching and developing, which has contributed to the mature development of the industrial chain in recent years. But my most optimistic is still hydrogen vehicles,
First, pure electric and hybrid vehicles are still dominated by power batteries, and the recovery rate after the aging of power batteries is not high, about 40%. The remaining metal elements in batteries that cannot be recycled and reused will cause pollution to a large extent, which is contrary to the original intention of developing new energy. Second, batteries still need raw materials (ores) to make and prices fluctuate frequently. Third, hydrogen fuel cells have greater energy density, energy efficiency advantages, and energy replenishment can be like refueling for a short time, low temperature resistance, hydrogen fuel cells are also better recovered than lithium batteries.
The future hydrogen energy vehicle should be like this, from the production of hydrogen, hydrogenation, the application of hydrogen energy in the whole process of low carbon emissions or no carbon emissions; has the same short-term refueling experience as gasoline, and can last more than 500-600km at a time.
Can it replace the electric vehicle market, and when will it replace electric vehicles? Hydrogen energy has the potential to replace electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, secondary energy is easy to obtain, and overcoming the technical difficulty of hydrogen storage will be of significant help to the entire automotive industry; when the entire hydrogen energy industry chain is mature, the energy replenishment facilities are perfect, the downstream field is diversified, and the terminal cost is comparable to the power battery, it is possible to replace the electric vehicle.
Now like Toyota, Hyundai, BMW and Ford, they are all making their own mass production cars and concept cars for hydrogen energy vehicles. Toyota's technical reserves in this area are relatively rich, passenger cars have Toyota Mirai, commercial vehicles have Costa (hydrogen engine) above the two cars have been used in this year's Winter Olympics; similarly, hyundai NEXO has also achieved mass production overseas; BMW's hydrogen energy iX5 Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle has now begun testing. Like domestic car companies such as Hongqi, SAIC Maxus, Geely and other brands, are building their own hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles.
In the future, the global energy system will certainly be clean and low-carbon transformation, and power batteries will never become the only energy source that exists, hydrogen energy has the potential for long-term development, and China also regards the hydrogen energy industry as a medium- and long-term development plan. This will promote the hydrogen energy industry to accelerate the improvement speed in terms of technology, cost, industrial chain, infrastructure, etc., and jointly promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry to meet the arrival of the era of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.