【Depth】Will hydrogen new energy be the next outlet in the automotive industry?

Reporter | Zhou Chunliang

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For now, the debate over the route of electrification technology has all but disappeared. Compared with 5 years ago, when the industry was still repeatedly struggling with the electrification technology route of HEV, PHEV and BEV, the current industry consensus has determined the direction as "pure electric".

However, under the higher level of the issue – the move towards carbon neutrality, a new debate has emerged – electric vehicles or hydrogen vehicles?

Electric vehicle VS hydrogen vehicle

In fact, automakers have been experimenting with hydrogen fuel cell technology for years, trying to crack the mystery of the richest and cleanest energy source in the universe. However, due to some obstacles, mass adoption still seems to be a long process.

Right now, there are only two mainstream hydrogen-powered passenger cars that can be called "on sale" – the Toyota Mirai and the Hyundai Nexo. However, more hydrogen cars and vans have been confirmed to be released, and brands such as BMW, Land Rover and Vauxhall are all planned to land within the next five years.

One of the biggest reasons why hydrogen vehicles are so slow to become popular is the existing infrastructure. At the end of 2021, there will be only 12 hydrogen refueling stations in the UK, far less than the number of gas stations and public charging points. In contrast, according to the Prospective Industry Research Institute, China, which is a hundred times larger, has only 131 hydrogen refueling stations, which are even less dense.

Infrastructure is the biggest reason for its slow development.

However, it is clear that this and other production obstacles are being overcome. Skeptics' first argument against hydrogen cars is that they are less efficient than electric ones. Because hydrogen is not naturally produced, it must be extracted and then compressed in a fuel tank. It must then be mixed with oxygen in the fuel cell stack to generate electricity that powers the car's motors.

They point out that hydrogen vehicles lose more efficiency in this process than electric vehicles whose electricity comes directly from the battery pack.

This is true to some extent, but there are also those who argue that hydrogen cars themselves will not replace electric vehicles. Instead, hydrogen vehicles are meant to supplement electric vehicles. Because it is the cleanest energy source.

In contrast, lithium-ion battery production for electric vehicles is an energy-intensive industry. For example, a 100 kWh battery would have to exclude about 20 tons of carbon dioxide from production. Conventionally, a battery can use about 240,000 kilometers, which is equivalent to a battery's carbon emissions of about 83 grams/km.

Then, the electric vehicle needs to be charged during use, and the generation of this electricity is calculated to emit about 124 grams/km of carbon dioxide. Today's hydrogen vehicles emit about 120 g/km of life cycle emissions. However, when hydrogen is produced from renewable sources, this number can be greatly reduced.

A common method of hydrogen production is a process called steam methane reforming, which separates hydrogen from natural gas. Research is also underway to obtain hydrogen from biomass, which will significantly reduce the life cycle emissions of hydrogen to about 60 g/km of carbon dioxide.

Due to the environmental costs of battery production, even if the electricity comes from renewable sources, it is impossible to achieve the low life cycle emissions of hydrogen.

The key to encouraging hydrogen vehicles is to make them part of a broader "hydrogen economy" – it is inefficient to simply build hydrogen refueling stations for hydrogen vehicles. Instead, ideally, the entire energy sector would incorporate hydrogen into the portfolio, from refueling cars to storing energy for homes.

Another advantage of hydrogen is that it can be produced in situ, rather than being transported like fuel or supplied through the grid like electricity.

But even with hydrogen infrastructure, hydrogen cars still face cost issues. The Toyota Mirai is priced at more than 500,000 yuan. This is a big expense for any user, but, as with electric cars, prices may start to fall as technology improves and becomes mainstream.

There are still a lot of "ifs" about hydrogen vehicles, but today there are far fewer than they were a decade ago.

Policy first

For China, the proposal of the "double carbon target" has undoubtedly made hydrogen energy vehicles get unprecedented attention. The "China Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Report 2020" predicts that by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for 10% of terminal energy consumption, with 30 million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and 60 million tons of hydrogen demand.

Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, provided a set of data to interface news reporters. By the end of 2020, the number of domestic hydrogen energy vehicles is only about 7,000, while the number of domestic cars is more than 200 million. The market share of hydrogen energy vehicles is about 1/30,000.

He pointed out that more than 80% of the electricity used, including new energy vehicles and hybrid vehicles, is thermal power generation, so the carbon emission intensity is still very large. In the future, it will definitely be replaced by hydrogen energy.

In fact, local governments in China have responded and formulated their own hydrogen energy industry plans.

On October 30, 2020, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Beijing Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2020-2025)", making clear arrangements for the layout and development goals of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry in Beijing:

By 2023, cultivate 3-5 leading enterprises in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain with international influence, strive to promote 3,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, build 37 hydrogen refueling stations, and the cumulative output value of the whole industry chain of fuel cell vehicles will exceed 8.5 billion yuan.

By 2025, cultivate 5-10 leading enterprises in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain with international influence, and strive to achieve a cumulative promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles exceeding 10,000, and 37 new hydrogen refueling stations (a total of 74), and the cumulative output value of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles exceeds 24 billion yuan.

On June 24, 2020, the executive meeting of the Guangzhou Municipal Government deliberated and adopted the "Guangzhou Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Plan (2019-2030)", which clearly states:

By 2022, fuel cell vehicles in the field of sanitation will account for no less than 10%, fuel cell vehicles in the fields of public transportation, logistics, engineering services, warehousing, ports and other fields will be operated no less than 3,000 vehicles, the application of fuel cell passenger vehicles will reach the scale of 100 vehicles, and the output value of the hydrogen energy industry is expected to be more than 20 billion yuan.

By 2025, fuel cell vehicles in the field of public transportation and sanitation will account for no less than 30%, and fuel cell passenger vehicles will achieve commercial promotion and application of thousands of vehicles. The output value of the hydrogen energy industry is expected to be more than 60 billion yuan.

In addition, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Chongqing, Ningxia, Shandong, Sichuan, Henan and Hebei have formulated relevant policies.

On the whole, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is basically divided into two stages, the demonstration application stage before 2023, and the accelerated development stage from then to 2025. In terms of the specific promotion and application targets formulated by various provinces, Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Inner Mongolia have clearly proposed that the promotion target for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2025 will be 10,000 vehicles.

Hydrogen energy products bloom in full bloom

As a technology vane, the Expo has also pointed out the direction for the future of the automotive industry.

In the auto pavilion of this year's Expo, Hyundai Motor brought the world's first mass-produced and delivered hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck XCIENT and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle NEXO.

Toyota released the world's first hydrogen fuel cell version of Costa. The TL Power 100 hydrogen fuel cell system, jointly developed with Chinese companies, was also showcased.

Independent brands are not far behind.

SAIC Motor has long proposed a "hydrogen strategy". According to the plan, it will launch at least ten fuel cell vehicle products by 2025, with a market share of more than 10%. In terms of products, SAIC Maxus EUNIQ 7 is equipped with SAIC Jet Hydrogen Technology's third-generation fuel cell system PROME P390, which can be compared with Hyundai, Toyota and other car companies in terms of power, power density and low temperature start.

GAC BJEV has also launched the first hydrogen fuel cell Aion LX Fuel Cell, which is based on gac's GEP 2.0 platform and is equipped with GAC's independent integrated hydrogen fuel cell system.

If it is still "routine operation" for automakers to demonstrate hydrogen vehicles, the fuel cell stack system stack package displayed by tire manufacturer Michelin further clarifies the future vision of the automotive industry's energy transition.

The Mission H24 hydrogen energy race car at the Michelin booth featured a new race tire built by Michelin with 46% sustainable materials. It is equipped with a hydrogen fuel cell system provided by Michelin and Sembio, and during the driving process, there is no other emission except water vapor, which is a veritable "green zero emission" racing car.

However, even with a thriving momentum, the popularity of hydrogen vehicles still faces many obstacles. "The gap between independent brand hydrogen fuel cells and foreign countries is that the energy density is relatively low and the reliability is relatively low." Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, told interface news reporters.

He explained that domestic hydrogen fuel cells can only be used in commercial vehicles at present, and this is the reason why passenger cars cannot be made. "Passenger car space is relatively small, and hydrogen fuel cells with low energy density cannot be arranged."

In addition, in this reliability aspect of hydrogen fuel cells, a vehicle can use 500,000 kilometers, or ten years. And now this fuel cell engine system can not reach this life.

Zhang Xiang further pointed out that there are very few hydrogen refueling stations in China at present. Now the main source of hydrogen production is the by-products of industry, such as oil, coal and other chemicals produced in the process of processing by-products, commonly known as "gray blue", its cost is low, but the amount is not large. In other words, the "carbon intensity" of its generation process is still very high.

If large-scale hydrogenation is required, then the "gray hydrogen" produced by industrial by-products will not be enough, and there will be a transition to "blue hydrogen" and "green hydrogen", then the cost will rise.

On the other hand, Zhang Xiang introduced that China currently has oil pipelines and natural gas pipelines, but there is no pipeline network for transporting hydrogen. "This infrastructure investment is very large. Forming a business model requires government money, and one is not enough. He said.

Based on the above conditions, Zhang Xiang believes that hydrogen energy vehicles are actually not the most suitable field for popularizing the hydrogen energy industry at present. In contrast, ships and rail trains are more suitable for hydrogen fuel cells or hydrogen fuel engines. "In general, China applies it first on commercial vehicles, trains, and ships, and passenger cars last, because it has a low energy density and a large volume, and should be applied to large vehicles."

It also points out that thinking should not be limited to the field of transportation. It can be jumped out, such as the use of hydrogen energy for building power generation in the future; the use of hydrogen fuel cells in remote mountainous areas where the power grid cannot be supplied with electricity; the heat energy generated during the power generation process is collected, and the building is heated.