1 The "14th Five-Year Plan" builds a picture of "big hydrogen energy", and the transportation field takes the lead
The "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on March 23, 2022 proposes: adhere to the market application as the traction, rational layout, grasp the rhythm, orderly promote the demonstration application of hydrogen energy in the field of transportation, expand the application in energy storage, distributed generation, industry and other fields, promote large-scale development, and accelerate the exploration of a commercialization path for the development of an effective hydrogen energy industry.
The scale of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market: 100 times that of a decade
As of 2021, there will be 49,562 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in major countries around the world, an increase of 49% year-on-year. In 2021, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in major countries around the world will be 16,313 units/yoy+68%. Driven by strong subsidy policies, the Korean market continued its growth momentum in 2020, with 8,498 units sold in 21 years, accounting for 52% of global sales. The United States sold 3341 units in 21 years, a 2.5-fold surge from 2020, mainly due to the low sales base of the epidemic in 2020; Japan sold 2464 units /yoy+67% in 21 years, mainly benefiting from the launch of the new generation of Toyota Mirai at the end of 2020. China's 21 years of sales of 1586 units / yoy + 35%, with the landing of the demonstration city cluster and the Beijing Winter Olympics, we believe that sales in the second half of this year is expected to start to accelerate, 22 years from January to February domestic fuel cell vehicle production and sales of 356 and 371 units, an increase of 5.0 times and 3.1 times.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, as of 2021, the domestic fuel cell vehicle ownership is 8938 units, and the domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales from 2016 to 2021 are 629, 1275, 1527, 2737, 1177 and 1586 vehicles, respectively, according to the "Medium- and Long-term Planning for the Development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on March 23, 2022, it is planned that by 2025, the number of hydrogen-fired battery vehicles will be about 50,000, and 2022-2025 CAGR=54.0%。 According to the declaration of the demonstration city cluster, the cumulative promotion of 33,000 vehicles by 2025, according to the industrial planning of local governments, the cumulative promotion of 80,000 vehicles in 2025.
Compared with pure electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles overcome the problems of long energy replenishment time and poor adaptability to low temperature environments, and improve operational efficiency. In accordance with the principle of "hydrogen-electric complementarity, hydrogen is hydrogen, and electricity is suitable for electricity", it is complementary to the application scenarios of pure electric vehicles. If hydrogen fuel cells are fully promoted in the field of commercial vehicles, the potential annual sales are expected to exceed 1.8 million (in 2020, the annual sales of China's commercial vehicles (heavy trucks, municipal sanitation vehicles, buses and buses) total 1.806 million units), and the potential market space is 216 billion yuan / year.
Economic determinants of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles: purchase cost, hydrogen consumption, hydrogen price
The life cycle cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is much higher than that of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, and it is necessary to significantly reduce costs if we want to achieve the comprehensive commercial promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The cost of fuel cell vehicles is composed of vehicle acquisition costs, use costs, and vehicle maintenance costs. The fuel economy of fuel cell vehicles determines the cost of use, which is directly related to two factors: 100 km hydrogen consumption and hydrogen price. The price of hydrogen is composed of hydrogen production costs, storage and transportation costs and hydrogenation costs. Therefore, the reduction of the full life cycle cost of hydrogen fuel battery vehicles requires the efforts of the whole industry chain of hydrogen energy.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle cost reduction space: hydrogen fuel cell vehicle VS electric vehicle VS diesel vehicle
We selected the 18t FAW Jiefang J6L4×2 van, the vehicle use scenario is the fleet operation of heavy trucks, the transport vehicle needs to meet the daily average of more than 500km long-distance transportation needs, the use time of 5 years to complete 1 million kilometers.
In terms of full life cycle costs, before subsidies, fuel cell heavy trucks are 36% higher than fuel heavy trucks and 46% higher than pure electric heavy trucks. After the subsidy, fuel cell vehicles are lower than diesel heavy trucks, slightly higher than pure electric heavy trucks by 7%.
Acquisition cost: The purchase cost of subsidized pre-hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is 80% higher than that of fuel heavy trucks, which is 35% higher than that of pure electric heavy trucks. After the subsidy, the purchase cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is 16% lower than that of fuel vehicles and 75% lower than that of electric vehicles.
Operating costs: Fuel heavy truck diesel cost is 1.61 yuan / km, electric vehicle electricity cost is 0.88 yuan / km, before subsidy fuel cell heavy truck energy hydrogen cost is 2.01 yuan / km, after subsidy is 1.58 yuan / km, slightly lower than diesel heavy truck, higher than pure electric heavy truck 80%.
If electricity prices continue to decline, the performance and cost of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach the 2025/2030 target of the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap", and the fuel cell heavy trucks in 2025/2030 will be 2% and 22% lower than pure electric heavy trucks, respectively.
2 Purchase cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles: fuel cell system and hydrogen storage and supply system
Fuel cell system: the localization of basic materials has accelerated, and it has entered a decade of rapid technological development
"Hydrogen energy industry development medium and long-term planning (2021-2035)" plans to 2025, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be about 50,000, the cumulative market demand for fuel cell systems in the next 4 years is 15.5 billion yuan, according to the local government planning in 2025 to promote the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cumulative 80,000, the next 4 years the cumulative market size of fuel cell systems is 24.8 billion yuan, if the fuel cell system in the field of commercial vehicles is fully promoted, the annual sales reach 1.8 million vehicles, the potential annual demand is 216 billion yuan.
The mainland has initially realized the localization of the whole industrial chain of PEMFC, and gradually developed to the initial stage of industrialization with continuous expansion of industrial scale and gradual improvement of infrastructure. Since 2017, the core technology of domestic fuel cell system has made significant progress, initially mastered the key technologies of the whole vehicle, power system and key components, basically established a fuel battery car and fuel cell city bus power system technology platform with independent intellectual property rights, and realized the production capacity of 100-class power system and vehicle. The fuel cell automobile industry in the mainland has basically formed a fuel cell vehicle supply chain and industrial chain system driven by vehicle manufacturing and fuel cell systems, covering fuel cell vehicles, fuel cell systems and components, as well as hydrogenation, hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and other links.
The application of hydrogen energy in the field of transportation will gradually transition to the scene of long endurance and large load. According to the keynote speech of "Fuel Cell System Development and Multi-scenario Application" delivered by Cao Guijun, Executive Vice President of Hydrogen Blue Times, at the 2021 Annual Conference of the Potential Silver Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry, it is expected that the main power rating of the fuel cell system will be 130~180kW in 2025, the maximum rated power of the fuel cell system will be greater than 180kW, and the application of hydrogen energy in the transportation field will gradually transition to the scene of long endurance and large load.
As of 2021, the technical level of domestic fuel cell systems has far exceeded the level planned in the fuel cell technology development route. According to the keynote speech of "Fuel Cell System Development and Multi-scenario Application" delivered by Cao Guijun, executive vice president of Hydrogen Blue Times Power Technology Co., Ltd., at the 2021 Annual Conference of the Potential Silver Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry, the localization rate and technical indicators of the stack have increased rapidly. Among them, the single stack power increased from 45~60kW to 150~200kW; the power density of the stack increased from 2.5kW/L to 4~4.5kW/L; the localization rate of key components increased from 50% to 90~98%; the system integration degree increased from 300W/kg to 450W/kg; the environmental adaptability was generally improved, generally reaching -30 °C cold start; the basic materials continued to break through, industrialization accelerated, the system cost downward trend was obvious, and the stack price could be lower than 2000/kW. System costs can be less than 5000/kW. It is estimated that the main power rating of the fuel cell system will be 130~180kW in 2025, and the maximum power of the fuel cell system will be greater than 180kW, and the application of hydrogen energy in the transportation field will gradually transition to a long endurance and large load scenario.
The technical indicators of domestic mainstream fuel cell system manufacturers lead the industry. According to Gaogong Hydrogen Power, in terms of system volume power density, the technical indicators that have been achieved by the domestic fuel cell system are 1.6 to 2.0 times better than the power density planned in the fuel cell technology development route of 350W/kg, such as: Yihuatong G20+, Shanghai Remodeling Prisma Mirror Star 12+, Hydrogen Era QSD-150, Guohong Hydrogen Energy Hongtu G110 Mass Power Density of 810W/kg, 702W/kg, 603W/kg, 555W/ Kg; in terms of power rating, Yihuatong G20+, Hydrogen Era QSD-150 reached 240kW, 150.7kW, Shanghai Remodel Prisma Mirror Star 12+, Shanghai Jie Hydrogen PROMEP4H, Xiongtao Shares VISH-130B reached 130kW, and the head enterprise exceeded 160 kW. In terms of stacks, the mass power density of Hongxin GI of Guohong Hydrogen Energy exceeds 3.8 kW/L, and the SFC-C9 of Shenli Technology reaches 4.3 kW/L, both exceeding the 2.5 kW/L power density plan planned in the fuel cell technology development route.
Fuel cell system: the industry market concentration remains high, based on the good expectations of policies and future market prospects, the number of enterprises entering continues to increase, and the market concentration has a downward trend. From 2017 to March 2022, the top three fuel cell systems supporting the cumulative number of fuel cell systems recommended by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology were: Yihuatong, Reshaping Technology, and Guohong Hydrogen Energy, and 137, 89, and 86 fuel cell systems entered the recommended model number of matching, respectively.
Stack competition pattern: Guohong hydrogen energy stack domestic cumulative market share of more than 50%, ranking first. According to GGII's statistics, from 2015 to 2021, Guohong hydrogen energy stacks will have about 5,000 sets of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with a market share of 50%, ranking first; Shenli Technology and Xinyuan Power Stacks will have accumulated 1,000 and 1,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles respectively, ranking second and third. In 2021, China's stack shipments were 757MW, an increase of 128% year-on-year, and the top 10 stack companies were Guohong Hydrogen, Hydrogen Chen Technology, Shenli Technology, Edelman, Qingneng Shares, Hydrogen Pu Chuangneng, Weichai Power, Guodian Hydrogen Energy, Oriental Hydrogen Energy, aerospace hydrogen energy (Shanghai).
On-board storage/hydrogen supply system: In preparation for mass production of 70MPa IV bottles, the core materials and components have begun to be imported from domestic suppliers
According to the "Medium and Long-term Planning for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", by 2025, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be about 50,000, the cumulative market size of the on-board hydrogen storage system will be 4.8 billion yuan in the next 4 years, the cumulative number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles promoted in 2025 according to the local governments' plans will be 80,000, and the cumulative market size of the vehicle hydrogen storage system will be 7.7 billion yuan in the next 4 years 153.2 billion yuan.
According to the "Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Vehicle High Pressure Hydrogen Storage Cylinder Report" target, in 2023, the mainland will have a mass production capacity of 70MPa IV hydrogen storage cylinders. Type IV hydrogen storage cylinders have obvious advantages over Type III bottles: 1) Lightweight: the roof of the bus can be loaded with 1200 to 2000 liters of compressed gas energy; 2) 70% less hydrogen consumption than the Type III bottle; 3) Road transport supports a range of 1000 km. 4) Operating costs are 60-70% lower than Type III bottles. At present, 35MPa and 70MPa III bottles are mainly used in China, and 70MPaIV bottles are widely used in the international market. (Source: Future Think Tank)
DOE has put forward requirements for the cost reduction target of hydrogen storage systems, which cost $1500 per vehicle in 2025 and $1330 per vehicle in 2030.
Type III hydrogen storage bottle carbon fiber accounts for 63% to 65% of the total cost of the system, type IV hydrogen storage bottle carbon fiber accounts for 77% to 78% of the total cost of the system, carbon fiber localization is the key to reducing the cost of hydrogen storage bottles. Domestic carbon fiber products for IV bottles are close to the international leading level in performance, and after the batch stability is improved, it is expected to achieve domestic substitution. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the main supplier Nippon Toray has tightened the supply of carbon fiber (due to government pressure), and only a small part of the domestic suppliers can be supplied in addition to prioritizing the application of the aerospace and military industry. In the past two years, the domestic mainstream hydrogen storage bottle enterprise carbon fiber has gradually begun to be localized and replaced in small batches.
The domestic on-board hydrogen storage system market pattern has gradually moved from concentration to dispersion. Foreign 70MPa hydrogen cylinder research started earlier, should be relatively mature, the main institutions include Norway HexagonComposites, the United States Quantum, Japan Toyota, South Korea ILJINComposite, etc., the current products to IV. type bottles, hydrogen storage density are about 5.0wt%. In 2021, the concentration of the top five enterprises (CR5) in China's vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage system shipments was 80.23%, down 7.33pct from 2020 and 17.31pct from 2019. The first three companies from 2020 to 2021 are Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Shunhua New Energy, and Ketaiq. From 2019 to 2021, the market share of Guofu hydrogen energy will drop from 43.7% to 37.9%, remaining the first, and will decline slightly year by year.
The number of participants in the vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage cylinder group market has increased year by year, the market concentration has declined, and the competitiveness has increased. In 2021, the concentration of the top three enterprises in the domestic market shipment volume was 76.95%, which continued to decline. In 2019, the top 5 domestic hydrogen bottle suppliers were Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Kotec, Tianhai Industry, Sinoma Technology, and Slinda. In 2020, CIMC ENRIC began to participate in the market competition. From 2019 to 2021, the market share of Guofu hydrogen energy market shipments fell from 51.3% to 35.6%, still ranking first.
Large-volume TYPE IV bottles began to prepare for mass production, and CIMC ENRIC is expected to catch up later. In China, it is mainly equipped with 35MPaIII bottles, and 70MPaII bottles are mainly used in prototype vehicles or small batch models. According to GGII statistics, in 2021, the shipment volume of vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage cylinders in the Chinese market is 30284 pieces/yoy+122.43%, and the shipment volume of 70 MPa hydrogen storage bottles reaches 1203 pieces, accounting for 4% of shipments. The development technology of type IV bottles is difficult, and there are multiple thresholds such as structural design, material processing, bulk of filament tow carbon fiber, carbon fiber winding technology, etc., and the technical bottleneck is high. In order to accelerate the pace of technological development, some domestic enterprises have used the technology introduction method to enter the IV hydrogen storage cylinder market, and the representative enterprises include CIMC Enrico, Faurecia Slinda and other enterprises. Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Tianhai Industry, Yapu Shares, Aoyang Technology, etc. use self-research methods to prepare for the mass production of type IV hydrogen storage cylinders.
3 Cost of use: green hydrogen preparation + storage and transportation + hydrogen refueling station construction
Green hydrogen scale: The increase in the installed scale of wind and solar has spawned a large hydrogen energy storage market, and the decline in electricity prices has ensured downstream applications
Under the 2030 carbon peak vision, China's annual demand for hydrogen is expected to reach 37.15 million tons, accounting for about 5% of terminal energy consumption; under the 2060 carbon neutrality vision, the annual demand for hydrogen in the mainland will increase to about 130 million tons, accounting for about 20% of terminal energy consumption.
It is estimated that in 2030, the proportion of hydrogen produced by electrolyzed water will increase from 1.5% in 2020 to 10%, with a production of about 3.72 million tons. According to the "China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Handbook (2020)", the domestic hydrogen production in 2020 is about 33.42 million tons, and the electrolysis of water to hydrogen is 500,000 tons, accounting for 1.5%. In 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060, the proportion of hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water will gradually increase to 10%, 25%, 45%, and 70%.
After the dual carbon target is clear, the strategic position of wind power generation has been improved。 According to the latest news from the National Energy Administration, the new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the mainland will reach 100.54GW in 2021, of which 47.57GW of wind power and 52.97GW of photovoltaic power generation. We expect China's total new wind/PV capacity to be 193/237GW in 2025/2030 and 1281/2390GW by 2025/2030.
To achieve a green hydrogen production of 372 tons by 2030, 155GW of photovoltaic installation is required. If green hydrogen is prepared by photovoltaic power generation, according to the calculation of 1200 hours of light volts per year, the annual power generation capacity per GW installed capacity is 1.2 billion degrees, which can produce 24,000 tons of hydrogen, and the production of 3.72 million tons of hydrogen requires 155GW of photovoltaic installed capacity.
We expect the cumulative market size of China's electrolyzed water hydrogen production system to be 12.8/118.9 billion yuan in 2025/2030, respectively. According to the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on March 23, 2022, it is planned that by 2025, the hydrogen production capacity of renewable energy will reach 100,000-200,000 tons/year, and the cumulative market space of the electrolyzed water hydrogen system will be 6.4 to 12.8 billion yuan in 2025. According to the "China Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Report (2020)", with the decline in the cost of electrolysis water hydrogen production equipment and the increase in installed capacity of wind and photovoltaics, the renewable hydrogen production in 2030 will be about 3.72 million tons, and the installed capacity of the electrolyzer system will need to be deployed for 65GW. Electrolyzers are the core part of the hydrogen production system for electrolysis of water, and the cumulative market size is expected to be 53.5 billion yuan in 2030.
The decline in the cost of hydrogen production mainly depends on the progress of electrolytic cell technology and the decline in new energy electricity prices. The cost of electricity prices accounts for about 80% of the total cost of hydrogen production, which is the main factor affecting the cost; the cost of electrolytic system equipment: 10% to 20% of the total cost. The "China Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Report (2020)" mentions the goal of hydrogen production: under the condition of increasing the proportion of hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water, the average cost of hydrogen production in 2025 will not be higher than 20 yuan / kg; the average cost of hydrogen production in 2030 will not be higher than 15 yuan / kg; the average cost of hydrogen production in 2050 will not be higher than 10 yuan / kg.
1) Cost reduction brought about by the advancement and scale of electrolytic cell technology:
A． Alkaline electrolyzer localization rate is high, low cost. Alkaline electrolysis of water hydrogen production equipment in the mainland has a localization rate of 95%, and hydrogen valves and instruments need to be imported. Among the core electrolyzer components of localization, there is a gap between the technical level of diaphragm and electrode and foreign countries, and there is a gap between the inductive flow density and energy efficiency compared with foreign countries, but the domestic cost advantage is obvious. It is expected that the cost of alkaline electrolytic systems in 2025/2050 is expected to be reduced from 1250~2000 yuan/kW to 600~1000 yuan/kW.
B． PEM electrolysis water to hydrogen electrolyzer proton exchange membrane relies on imports, and the cost reduction space is large. PEM electrolysis of water hydrogen production equipment has a national production rate of about 80%, and the core components have domestic production capacity, but most of the raw materials such as membrane resin and membrane solution are imported. Domestic PEM electrolyzed water equipment has achieved small-scale commercial application, but the equipment cost reduction space is large. The cost of the PEM electrolytic system is expected to be reduced from 6000~12000 yuan/kW to 800~2000 yuan/kW.
2) The decline in the cost of wind and photovoltaic power generation. According to CPIA and CWEA data, we estimate that when the electricity price drops to 0.2 yuan / kWh, the cost of electrolyzed water to hydrogen will be reduced to about 18 yuan / kg. When the electricity price drops to 0.1 yuan / kWh, the cost of electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen will be reduced to about 13 yuan / kg.
Gaseous/liquid/solid state routes are competing for hundreds of brands, and the progress of storage and transportation technology has helped the whole industry chain reduce costs
1) Compressed gaseous hydrogen storage: with low cost, mature technology and other advantages, it has been widely used at home and abroad, and continuously improving the pressure level is the main direction of technological upgrading. At present, the transportation link is mainly based on long-tube trailers, the filling capacity of 20 MPaI. type bottle long tube hydrogen truck is about 350kg, and the filling capacity of type II bottle long-tube hydrogen truck is more than 450kg, which is suitable for short-distance and small-scale transportation. The 30 MPa long tube trailer is already in mass production and is being upgraded to a 50 MPa pressure rating. The hydrogen storage device in the hydrogen refueling station uses the station to use the hierarchical hydrogen storage bottle group in the domestic technology, and the current 90MPa hydrogen storage cylinder group configured by the 70MPa hydrogen refueling station has basically achieved localization. Pipeline hydrogen transmission is an important way to achieve large-scale, long-distance transportation of hydrogen, construction costs are larger, flexibility is not enough, the current mainland only 100km pipeline construction, 2030 mainland hydrogen pipeline is expected to reach 3000km.
2) Low-temperature liquid hydrogen storage: more applications in foreign countries, domestic applications are limited to the aerospace field, the civil field is in the demonstration operation stage, we expect that after 25 years is expected to become one of the mainstream storage and transportation methods. The liquid hydrogen storage and transportation mode is mainly liquid hydrogen tank truck, and the single vehicle can transport hydrogen up to 7000 kg, which is suitable for the occasion of a long distance and a large transportation volume. At present, Japan and the United States have taken liquid hydrogen tank trucks as one of the important ways to transport hydrogen at hydrogen refueling stations. Continental liquid hydrogen is mainly used in the field of aviation and military industry, the development of civil liquid hydrogen is slow, hydrogen liquefaction equipment is mainly provided by American air products, Praxair, Germany Linde and other manufacturers. At present, the mainland has issued national standards for the production, storage and transportation of liquid hydrogen, and the civil liquid hydrogen field has gathered a number of institutions and enterprises such as Zhongke Fuhai, Aerospace 101 Institute, Guofu Hydrogen Energy, and Hongda Xingye, and liquid hydrogen storage and transportation has entered the demonstration operation stage.
3) Solid-state hydrogen storage: the use of truck transportation, with high hydrogen storage density, good safety, high hydrogen purity advantages, complex technology, high cost, has not yet large-scale use. In China, hydrogen storage of solid materials is still in the stage of technological upgrading, and hydrogen storage of solid materials has been demonstrated and applied in foreign distributed generation, wind power hydrogen production, and large-scale hydrogen storage.
The pressure level is improved, which can significantly reduce the cost of gaseous hydrogen transportation, and the transportation cost of 500km long tube trailer 500km is 9.64 yuan / kg. 20MPa long-tube trailer hydrogen transport is generally suitable for short distances and less transportation scenarios within 200km, and the cost advantages under 50MPa are becoming more and more obvious as the distance increases. From an economic point of view, it is imperative to increase the pressure of hydrogen storage in cylinders, and we believe that this will be the development direction of high-pressure gas hydrogen transportation in the future.
Hydrogen refueling station: the localization of equipment is large-scale, which promotes the decline of investment in hydrogen refueling stations
According to the "China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Manual (2020 Edition)", the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea plan 5600 hydrogen refueling stations in 2030, 1000, 1200 and 900 respectively, and the total number of global hydrogen refueling stations is expected to reach 13710 in 2030, and the CAGR = 39% in 2021-2030.
It is estimated that the cumulative market size of mainland hydrogen refueling stations in 2025/2030 will be 10/37.5 billion yuan, respectively. Key assumptions:
1) According to the forecast of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations will be built in 2025, 5,000 in 2030, the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 46.3%, and the compound growth rate from 2025 to 2030 will be 37.9%;
2) According to the "China Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Report 2020", the construction investment of 500kg hydrogen refueling station in 2020 is 12 million yuan, and it is expected that the construction cost will be reduced to 10 million yuan in 2025 and 7.5 million yuan in 2030, and the total cost of domestic hydrogen refueling station construction is expected to decline by more than 50%.
The decline in the construction cost of hydrogen refueling stations mainly comes from the expansion of equipment production scale and the nationalization of key equipment such as compressors and hydrogenation machines, the main key equipment includes diaphragm compressors, hydrogen storage containers in the station, pre-coolers, etc., the cost proportion is: 30%, 11%, 7%; even if the localization of equipment is not considered, with the scale of hydrogen refueling stations gradually increased from 500kg to 1500kg, the cost of hydrogen refueling links will also drop from 15.6kg to 6.4kg.
4 Industrial chain combing
The hydrogen energy industry chain includes upstream hydrogen production, midstream storage and transportation, hydrogenation and downstream hydrogen. Upstream hydrogen production can be divided into fossil fuel hydrogen production, industrial by-product hydrogen, electrolysis of water hydrogen production, etc., midstream hydrogen storage and transportation can be divided into gaseous, liquid, solid state storage and transportation; downstream hydrogen mainly focuses on the fuel cell industry, the application of hydrogen fuel cells is the main direction of the current development of hydrogen energy industry.
Source: Huatai Securities