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Although hydrogen fuel vehicles have advantages in long-distance travel, trucks and other scenarios, relevant scholars have said that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are difficult to commercialize. Mainland China has the world's largest heavy-duty truck market, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering expects fuel cell heavy-duty trucks to be commercialized in the next 5 to 10 years.
The 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles in operation at the Beijing Winter Olympics are the world's largest demonstration of fuel cell vehicles. Let the market be full of imagination about the prospects of hydrogen vehicles.
Hydrogen energy vehicles, generally have two technical routes, one is to use hydrogen directly through the internal combustion engine combustion, hydrogen energy internal combustion engine and traditional fuel engine similar, but the fuel driven is highly compressed hydrogen. The principle is to provide power by burning hydrogen, and the combustion energy is converted into kinetic energy. This route is too obstructed due to safety and energy conversion efficiency.
Therefore, the second path is generally used, that is, the route of hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles rely on the electrochemical reaction of hydrogen and oxygen in hydrogen fuel cell stacks to generate electric energy.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are called the "ultimate form" of vehicle energy because of the discharge of water and the inexhaustible hydrogen energy.
However, it is this seemingly perfect energy vehicle that has recently suffered a heavy "blow" in the industry.
Recently, in the famous "Nature" magazine, an article titled "Hydrogen technology is unlikely to play a major role in sustainable road transport" was published in the famous journal Nature, which was very unsatisfactory about the commercial prospects of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which caused shocks in the industry.
The author of the article is Dr. Patrick Pltz from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation (ISI) in Germany. Germany is a big user of hydrogen energy, why doesn't Dr. Patrick Pltz look favorably on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
Patrick Pltz said: "Hydrogen technology is unlikely to play an important role in sustainable road transport. ”
Dr. Pltz compares electric vehicles with hydrogen fuel vehicles from the perspective of passenger vehicles, freight vehicles, costs, etc., showing the development status of the two types of vehicles, and concludes: "The development of electric vehicles and fast charging technology will soon make hydrogen fuel vehicles redundant in road transportation." ”
Even for long-distance travel, the advantages of hydrogen are not significant
According to Dr. Patrick Pltz's article, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cannot be commercialized because there are several major drawbacks to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
The first is the technological development of power batteries, which squeezes the living space of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
For the passenger car market, the hydrogen vehicle market size from the beginning of 2021, the global inventory of about 25,000 hydrogen fuel vehicles, of which more than 90% of the cars are only distributed in South Korea, the United States, China and Japan. For all-electric and plug-in hybrids, there could be about 15 million on the road worldwide by early 2022.
In terms of models to choose from, global manufacturers only offer two passenger fuel cell models. In contrast, almost all manufacturers are now selling such electric vehicles, with more than 350 models to choose from worldwide.
Second, in terms of fuel supply, there are only about 540 hydrogen refueling stations in operation worldwide. Electric vehicle charging piles, by 2020, there are about 1.3 million public charging piles in operation worldwide, of which about a quarter are fast charging piles (at least 22 kW power). Recently, charging point operators have started building high-power fast chargers with more than 150 kW of power, typically up to 300 kW (more than 1,000 300 kW charging points are already in operation in Europe). And that's growing.
Pltz said that with the expansion of investment in power battery manufacturing, the cost of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure is further reduced, battery performance is improved, and fuel cell vehicles are unlikely to be competitive.
From the data of these perspectives alone, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is obviously inferior to electric vehicles. So, in terms of long-distance station wagons, do hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have advantages?
Pltz believes that even for long-distance station wagons, the advantages of hydrogen energy are not significant.
Compressed hydrogen has a higher energy density compared to electric vehicles and the ability to fill up fuel in minutes, making fuel cell vehicles ideal for frequent long-distance travel. But battery electric vehicles now offer an actual range of about 400 kilometers, and the latest generation uses 800V batteries that can charge 200 kilometers in about 15 minutes.
While several truck manufacturers and fuel cell and infrastructure suppliers have jointly announced a target of 100,000 fuel cell trucks on European roads by 2030, this seems unlikely compared to the 2027 date announced by related companies to start the first production of a range of fuel cell electric trucks for use. By then, a new generation of electric vehicles will have expanded commercial coverage.
In terms of the size of the large truck market, there are about 30,000 pure electric trucks in stock worldwide, of which more than 90% are in China. Fuel cell electric trucks have so far only been operated in test trials and have not yet been commercialized.
In terms of truck models, motivated by CO2 reduction targets for heavy-duty vehicles, many manufacturers have released more than 50 heavy-duty truck models. These trucks will basically be the first generation of battery electric trucks, and it is recommended that the range of medium-sized trucks be 250 kilometers and that of heavy trucks be 300-350 kilometers.
The current challenges facing electric vehicles are long-distance logistics (an average of 100,000 kilometers per year) and excessive cargo transportation (meaning high energy consumption per kilometer). This is also the longest discussed use scenario for hydrogen fuel cell trucks.
In terms of infrastructure, there is currently no dedicated infrastructure for fuel cells or electric trucks. Since the truck's large-capacity battery requires a higher charging power to be fully charged, while existing fast chargers can be used for battery-electric trucks, there are also requirements for the size of the parking lot to accommodate the vehicle.
Pltz said that comparing the commercialization speed of pure electric vehicles, combined with the global carbon neutrality schedule, it has not given hydrogen fuel cell vehicles enough time to solve cost and technical problems and complete commercialization.
Cost determines technological development
Cost, not technical attributes, is the key to determining technological development. The potential for technological development and cost reduction is often underestimated. In the long run, cost is decisive.
Pltz's article argues that the lower efficiency ratio of hydrogen fuel cells means that the cost of using the car increases. In terms of energy conversion, pure electric vehicles convert from other energy sources to electric energy, and the full efficiency ratio is 70% to 90%,while the final efficiency ratio of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is only 25% to 35%.
For the construction cost of infrastructure, according to relevant information, the cost of building an ordinary charging station is about 1 million yuan, while the construction of a hydrogen fuel station needs to cost at least 10 million yuan. It is unclear whether hydrogen or charging will reduce the total cost.
Not counting the cost of hydrogen, the cost of a hydrogen energy vehicle is equally expensive. Like electric vehicles, the core structure of hydrogen energy vehicles is a hydrogen fuel cell system. The system is mainly divided into four parts: the stack, the hydrogen supply system, the air system and the thermal management system. Stacks are the most expensive.
Studies have shown that the total cost of fuel cell electric trucks will be higher than that of megawatt-charged battery electric trucks. The logistics and transportation industry is highly cost-driven, so even if fuel cell vehicles are widely used, it may be that battery cars dominate.
In addition to road transport, there are many related applications, including aviation, shipping and steel manufacturing.
However, Pltz said the opportunity to build a relevant market share for hydrogen vehicles has closed. Because for trucks, operating costs are more important than cars, which makes the proportion of fuel cell trucks used is smaller.
If truck manufacturers don't start mass production of fuel cell trucks as soon as possible to reduce costs, such vehicles will never succeed in low-carbon road transport. The industry needs to quickly decide whether the market for fuel cell electric trucks is large enough to sustain the further development of hydrogen technology.
Only China can support the hydrogen energy heavy truck market?
Looking at the global application of hydrogen energy, the original two leaders of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, Japan and South Korea, have lost in terms of market size.
Although the industry is not optimistic about hydrogen-powered vehicles, China has become the most important market for the rise and development of hydrogen fuel vehicles because of its vast application scenarios.
Wang Yao, assistant secretary general and director of the Technology Department of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that compared with lithium battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have sufficient endurance, fast hydrogenation, and green environmental protection.
According to the successive policies introduced by the mainland, hydrogen fuel cells have the best prospects in large vehicles such as trucks and buses. Compared with electric endurance, hydrogen fuel cells have better performance. Although the current market share of fuel cell buses is still small, recent investments and set targets suggest that public transportation is shifting to fuel cell mobility solutions.
Mainland China has the world's largest heavy-duty truck market. In addition, relying on the perfect network of mainland expressways, infrastructure construction such as hydrogen refueling stations relies on transportation hubs and attaches service area networks to serve the development of hydrogen energy vehicles. The mainland has achieved a number of important technological breakthroughs, including battery power.
In the layout of the field of hydrogen energy transportation, in September 2020, the five ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles", which clearly pointed out that it is necessary to focus on promoting the demonstration application of medium- and long-distance, medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.
At present, the operation of continental fuel cell trucks has entered the primary commercialization level. On August 14, 2021, Xiong'an New Area opened the "Easy Line", and 100 hydrogen energy heavy trucks were put into operation at the same time. In addition, in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other places, the demonstration projects with early layout include thousands of hydrogen energy heavy trucks, covering multiple fields and types of application scenarios.
According to the Chinese Academy of Engineering, fuel cell heavy-duty trucks will achieve commercial operation in the next 5 to 10 years, gradually replacing the traditional fuel vehicle market. First develop commercial vehicles led by heavy trucks, wait until the relevant technology of hydrogen refueling stations is mature, and then pick up the girder of hydrogen energy passenger cars.
Source | Zero carbon worldwide
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