Recently, I have often been invited to answer the question: Now that the price of gasoline is so high, do you buy a fuel car or an electric car? Which one is more cost-effective? Which is better, fuel vehicles or electric vehicles? Would you buy an electric car? If the whole country is replaced by new energy vehicles, is it better... And so on. On these issues, I will talk about my cognition and views on new energy vehicles, personal views, do not like to spray. Remarks: The new energy vehicles mentioned here mainly refer to pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and unplugged hybrid vehicles are not discussed for the time being.
First, let's look at the difference between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. Fuel vehicles and electric vehicles are essentially cars, and their common attributes are both travel tools, which belong to the extension of the human limb and are used to expand human functions. As a travel tool, a very important feature of the car is the convenience of travel, and it must have the ability to leave at any time. The most important reason why we buy a private car is also this. If you ignore this, not buying a car is the most cost-effective, modern transportation network can take us to almost every corner of the world, but they are not as convenient as private cars, buy private cars is its convenience.
For a car to move, it needs to consume energy. The biggest difference between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is that the source of energy and the way of replenishment are different: fuel vehicles are the chemical energy contained in fossil fuels into mechanical energy, fossil fuels can be replenished anytime and anywhere, gas stations can be laid out in any corner of the city; and electric vehicles are to convert the electrical energy carried by the battery into mechanical energy, electrical energy needs to be supplemented on a dedicated charging pile, and the layout of the charging pile must be decentralized and cannot be concentrated together. It is this difference in energy source and energy supply method that causes a huge difference in the performance and convenience of use of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.
As we all know, the application and development of automobiles is highly dependent on infrastructure, such as roads, parking sites, energy supply, maintenance, and rules of use. Without these, cars are a pile of scrap iron. China's rapid development of the automobile industry in recent years, the large-scale entry of automobiles into the home, to a large extent, rely on the highly developed Road Network in China. On the Internet, there are often people who fantasize about taking a mechanized armored division, traveling back to ancient times, relying on modern weapons and equipment to hang ancient cold weapons, claiming hegemony and dominating the world. But he forgot one thing, the ancient world road conditions were extremely poor, the logistics supply was almost zero, and the modern mechanized armored division could not be used at all in ancient times, no different from a pile of scrap iron.
The current design and construction of transportation infrastructure in the world are modeled on fuel vehicles and serve fuel vehicles, such as roads, parking lots, power loads, gas station layouts, etc. In terms of road construction, fuel vehicles and electric vehicles are the same, and there is a difference in parking lot construction, electric vehicles need to have charging piles, and residential construction also needs to reserve a larger power load for the installation of charging piles.
I believe that many people will encounter a problem when applying for the installation of charging piles in the community, that is, the Electricity Bureau and the property will review the electricity load of the community. If the power load exceeds the standard, it will not be approved. This is really not a deliberate embarrassment, but there are indeed national standards. As far as I know, the current residential construction of the residential area, the power load margin is not much, in some areas a building more than 100 residents, only give ten charging pile quotas, more than will no longer be approved. If you have the foresight, apply now to install charging piles, these are scarce resources in the future, just like today's car gas stations, a charging pile is a small printing machine.
The same goes for the construction of the parking lot. The current parking lot is for fuel vehicles, as long as the car can be parked in, and even a three-dimensional garage can be built to park more vehicles in a limited area, and can also be parked at any time on the side of the road. If it is an electric vehicle parking lot, it is necessary to have a charging pile, and it is also necessary to install a charging pile for parking on the side of the road, which involves the problem of urban power load capacity and grid load balance. At the same time, the capacity of the parking lot will be greatly reduced. For example, in the same parking lot, if you can park five hundred fuel vehicles, you may only park two hundred electric vehicles. Now how difficult it is to park in the city, everyone knows it. If it were all replaced by electric vehicles, there would be little to do unless the size of the city was more than tripled. It's not a matter of tinkering, it's a subversive change, which is not a good thing for existing cities, but a disaster.
Therefore, the existing level and scale of urban infrastructure construction determine that electric vehicles cannot be developed on a large scale, let alone completely replace fuel vehicles. We can only accommodate as many electric vehicles as possible on the basis of existing facilities by tinkering with them. For developed areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, the Pearl River Delta, and the Yangtze River Delta, the urban infrastructure is better and can accommodate more electric vehicles; for the vast majority of third- and fourth-tier cities, urban infrastructure construction is relatively backward, and the capacity for electric vehicles is extremely limited. If we look at the whole world, you will find that there are many countries and regions in the world where electricity is not widespread, fuel vehicles are still luxury goods, and promoting electric vehicles in these areas is a joke.
After talking about the limitations of infrastructure on the development of electric vehicles, let's talk about some problems in the use of electric vehicles themselves.
The core technology of electric vehicles is three electricity: battery, motor, and electronic control. One of the biggest challenges is the battery. Batteries have been invented for more than a hundred years, there is no revolutionary innovation in technology, from the initial lead-acid battery, to the current lithium-ion battery, the stored electrical energy is very limited, the energy density is relatively low, far inferior to fossil fuels. If there is no substantial technological breakthrough in battery technology, the electric vehicle market cannot be highly developed. And the existing battery also has a safety problem, spontaneous combustion occurs from time to time, but also greatly hit everyone's confidence in buying electric vehicles.
The second is the problem of electric vehicle endurance. Now many electric vehicles claim that their endurance is more than 600 kilometers, but this is achieved under ideal conditions and is basically unattainable in reality. Especially in the north, where winters are relatively cold, the endurance achievement rate is even less than 50%. Many owners of electric vehicles have mileage anxiety disorder, dare not turn on air conditioning in summer, dare not drive warm air in winter, and drive trembling cars, completely losing the pleasure of driving. Over time, battery capacity decays and endurance decreases further. Therefore, the endurance of electric vehicles is an important bottleneck restricting the development of electric vehicles. There is also a decline in the battery capacity of electric vehicles, the performance of the car, such as acceleration ability, climbing ability, maximum speed, etc. will also decline, and even affect driving safety.
The third is the problem of energy replenishment. The replenishment of electric vehicles must be carried out on special charging piles, and the speed of electrical energy replenishment is also relatively slow. The existing charging pile construction in our country cannot keep up with the development speed of electric vehicles. And the distribution of charging piles is very uneven, in developed cities charging pile density is larger, charging is more convenient; and in less developed third- and fourth-tier cities, the number of charging piles is very small, the distribution is not balanced, the installation application of private charging piles is also more troublesome, electric vehicle charging is more difficult. The existing vehicle-to-pile ratio is about 3:1, that is, every three electric vehicles have a charging pile, if the next step of electric vehicle penetration is higher, the vehicle-to-pile ratio will be further increased, and electric vehicle charging will be more difficult.
There is also the layout of charging piles on the highway network, mainly refers to the layout of charging piles on the highway, which is not very reasonable, one is a small number, the charging waiting time is too long, and the other is that the number of charging piles along national highways and provincial highways is very small, and the driving of electric vehicles is greatly restricted. In addition, if all the charging piles are working at the same time at the same charging station, the charging speed will decrease and the charging time will be extended. The maintenance of charging piles is also a big problem, and there are often electric vehicles that find charging piles, but they cannot be used normally.
Regarding the power replenishment of electric vehicles, there are two other ways to replace the power and wireless charging in the middle of the road. Power exchange is now being done by car companies, the overall experience is not very good, different brands of car companies battery specifications are different, can not be interchanged; the number of replacement power stations is relatively small, the scope of travel is limited; if the country's electric vehicle batteries are made into standard parts, power exchange is a feasible solution. There is also a way is wireless charging in motion, this way must build a special road, the road is a huge charger, electric vehicles on the top of the same time, the electricity is also full, but this way in a short period of time is not possible, and it is impossible to promote all areas.
Finally, there is the problem of the aftermarket for electric vehicles. From fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, the structure and working principle of automobiles have undergone tremendous changes, and the use, maintenance and maintenance of automobiles are also very different from fuel vehicles. The current automotive aftermarket service personnel can not adapt to this change in both technology and mentality, which has caused the problem of difficult and expensive maintenance of electric vehicles. Even some brands of electric vehicles implement technical closure measures, only 4s stores have their technical information and professional testing equipment, if you do not go to the 4s shop for maintenance, electric vehicles can not be used normally. Now there are fewer 4s stores for electric vehicles, and the travel and development of electric vehicles have been restricted.
In addition, the accessories of electric vehicles are also relatively expensive, especially batteries, which account for almost half of the price of the car. If the battery is damaged due to the owner's own reasons, the price of replacing the battery may be higher than the residual value of the second-hand car. Although some car companies have now launched a battery lifetime warranty, or an 8-year 160,000-kilometer warranty, these measures are only for the first car owner, and the final interpretation right belongs to the car company, and the effect will be greatly reduced in actual operation. There is also the problem of recycling and secondary utilization of waste batteries, if not handled well, the environmental pollution is relatively large.
Since electric vehicles have so many shortcomings and deficiencies, why should China vigorously develop electric vehicles? This is the strategic policy of the country, we can not argue, at the same time, please believe in our country's expert think tank, they stand higher, have more information, and make decisions that must be much more correct than ours. We're just looking at these issues from the perspective of ordinary people.
Some people say that China develops electric vehicles because most of China's oil needs to be imported, and oil resources are limited and will be depleted. Vigorously developing electric vehicles can reduce dependence on oil and ensure national energy security. I disagree with this reason. Facts have proved that the theory of oil depletion is a lie, oil is inexhaustible, and only the exploitation and transportation of oil is the problem we should consider.
In fact, beautiful countries import more oil and consume more oil, why have they never worried about energy security? Because they are very powerful, the extraction and transportation of oil is not a problem for them at all, and no country in the world now dares to snap their necks. If China were as strong as they are, oil security wouldn't be a problem, but even now, I don't think it's a problem.
Moreover, even if the mainland electric vehicles are highly developed and the proportion of fuel vehicles has dropped significantly, oil is still to be imported, and the amount of imports will not be reduced much. Because oil is not only used to refine gasoline and diesel, all aspects of modern social life need oil as raw materials, such as chemicals, food, machinery, clothing, etc., without oil we simply can not survive and develop. To some extent, gasoline and diesel are only a by-product of the petroleum refining process and must be consumed. No matter how electric vehicles develop, there must be a part of the fuel vehicle to consume these gasoline and diesel.
So what is the significance of the mainland's vigorous development of electric vehicles? Personally, I think it is to break a dilemma, a dilemma created by the developed countries in the West: they are already far ahead of the world in technology, and in order to avoid later countries catching up, they have registered almost all advanced technologies as patents. Later countries want to develop, they can not avoid these patents, or can not use, or pay them a high patent fee, they can lie flat on the wool, without effort can live a happy life. Many people are very envious of the leisure, freedom, and high welfare of some Western countries, which are actually provided by developing countries.
China's vigorous development of new energy vehicles is actually to avoid their patents and avoid being woolen by them. Another way to open another track, where they develop their own technology, register their own patents, and use policies to suppress their existing technologies, such as double points, China VI emissions (stricter than Euro VI) and so on. Of course, the external propaganda is that we want to be green and environmentally friendly, to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality, to protect my earth, to protect our common home, to contribute to the development of mankind, to make sacrifices...
However, even if we try so hard, we still have not completely avoided their restrictions and plunder on us. For example, the most important battery raw material for the development of electric vehicles, lithium carbonate, the price has soared dozens of times. The mainland lithium ore is relatively scarce and requires a large number of imports. Then the developed countries of the West saw this loophole and took advantage of this to vigorously save our wool. Therefore, our country still has to find more advanced energy sources and completely get rid of the restrictions of Western countries. Personally, I believe that electric vehicles are only a transitional product, an auxiliary and supplementary fuel vehicle, only suitable for use in specific places, and cannot dominate. In the future, the most suitable energy source should be hydrogen energy, and China has recently issued a chinese hydrogen energy development outline, which should be a long-term plan for future development.
Finally, let's calculate an account to see which is more cost-effective to buy an electric car or a fuel car, and whether the electric car is worth buying. Here we assume that electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are used until they are scrapped, and there is no sale and purchase in the middle, that is to say, the problem of retention rate is not considered.
Let's compare by BYD Tang and Tang EV pure electricity. In terms of manufacturer guidance price, Tang is 165,800 yuan, and Tang EV pure electricity is 279,500 yuan, a difference of 113,700 yuan. We use normal family cars to drive about 10,000 kilometers a year, based on the current oil price and electricity price, Tang's annual fuel cost is 7740 yuan, Tang EV's pure electricity is 800 yuan, and the difference between the two is 6940 yuan.
How many years does it take to save that money? Divide 113,700 by 6940, which is about sixteen years. That is to say, the manufacturer's guidance price alone, we need sixteen years to smooth out the difference between the two. Of course, if you run more, the time to smooth out the difference is shortened. The more you run, the better the electric car is.
However, these are calculated in an ideal state, and if we also include the cost of supporting facilities, the advantages of electric vehicles are not great. For example, electric vehicles must have a parking space to install charging piles, a parking space plus charging pile 100,000 yuan is not much, and Tang fuel vehicles can be parked at will, almost no need to spend parking fees. If we count the later maintenance and battery replacement costs, the cost of electric vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles.
Therefore, even if the economic account is calculated, at this stage, electric vehicles are not as cost-effective as fuel vehicles. Of course, the driving experience of the two is also different, and the driving experience of electric vehicles will be better.
So is an electric car worth buying? This should be said according to the specific use environment and usage requirements. If your area is south of the Yangtze River, the temperature is relatively high, just used to commute to work, and the place also has license plate restrictions, buying an electric car is actually a helpless choice; if your area is north of the Yangtze River, especially in the northeast region, the winter temperature is very low, buying an electric car is very uneconomical, and the use experience is also very poor.
A few last words. Everyone found that no, now almost all well-known companies have started to build electric vehicles, such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Skyworth, Gree, etc., not to mention Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal. The current Chinese electric vehicle industry is extremely chaotic, and the industry that everyone can start with must not be a good industry, it must be an industry with simple technology and low threshold. Therefore, the current electric vehicle companies, in the future can survive a few, it is really difficult to say. In the future, after the preferential policies such as purchase subsidies, purchase taxes, and free license plates are abolished, it will be known who is swimming naked. Therefore, when buying an electric car now, we must have a fearless spirit of sacrifice and the courage and determination to be a guinea pig for the car company. Now electric vehicles are in the development stage, the update speed is very fast, maybe the electric vehicles you buy today, in a year or two, it will become a backward and eliminated product, then don't cry your nose!