Source | Yunlian Think Tank (ID: tucmedia), author | Meiyan Shi, Editor, | Small L
Core Introduction:
1) After the pure electric heavy truck encountered the promotion bottleneck such as high purchase cost and low operation efficiency, the replacement of the electric heavy truck became the "way to break the game" of the electric heavy truck;
2) However, the standardization of batteries, the layout and operation of power stations, and the immature vehicle-electricity separation mode have become "roadblocks" for the large-scale application of heavy trucks;
3) In the future, the replacement of heavy trucks will exist in special scenarios, but it will not become the mainstream of the market; in the priority of replacing fuel heavy trucks, hydrogen energy heavy trucks are greater than heavy trucks for replacing electric heavy trucks.
The road to electrification of heavy trucks has not been smooth. Problems such as high cost, short mileage, and high battery danger have hindered the promotion of electric heavy trucks. However, the favorable policies and the existence of the oil and electricity price difference make electrification have a very good economic foundation.
In addition, the rise of power exchange technology has also brought a ray of hope to the development of pure electric heavy trucks. So, how wide are the future application scenarios of changing heavy trucks? Can it become the mainstream of the market?
1. Changing heavy trucks has become the "star of hope" of new energy heavy trucks
1.1 Sales of new energy heavy trucks are gradually rising
From the current heavy-duty truck market, the sales of traditional fuel heavy-duty trucks have fallen again and again. Statistics show that the sales of heavy-duty trucks in January this year were 95,000 units, down 48% year-on-year, close to "waist cut"; in contrast, the sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks in January were 2301 units, up 1286% year-on-year, and successfully achieved a "good start". Last year, 10,448 new energy heavy-duty trucks were sold, of which december sales were the highest, reaching 3,006.
According to the type of power, new energy heavy trucks are mainly divided into pure electric heavy trucks, fuel cell heavy trucks and hybrid heavy trucks. In the sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2021, the highest proportion is pure electric heavy trucks (including power exchange), accounting for 92.4%; followed by fuel cell heavy trucks, accounting for 7.5%; the third is hybrid heavy trucks, accounting for 0.2%.
From the policy point of view, under the background of "double carbon", automobile electrification has become the main strategic direction of the country, and heavy trucks are the main source of pollution in the transportation field, and some regions have been required to increase the replacement of traditional fuel heavy trucks with new energy heavy trucks. To a certain extent, this has given a good opportunity for the development of new energy heavy trucks.
1.2 Power exchange becomes the "way to break the game" of pure electric heavy trucks
Electric heavy trucks generally have two "replenishment" methods. One is the charging mode, and the other is the power swap mode. The charging mode requires the construction of charging piles, and the power exchange mode requires the construction of a power station.
At present, there are some problems in the charging mode in terms of car purchase cost, operational efficiency and resource occupation, which has led to the marketing effect of electric heavy trucks has not been significant.
The birth of the power exchange mode has solved the problems of low operational efficiency and high one-time purchase cost caused by the long charging time and short mileage of the charging mode to a certain extent.
In terms of cost, relying on the business model of vehicle-electricity separation, the cost of electric heavy trucks is reduced to a certain extent, and end customers only need to pay for the body without batteries at one time. It is reported that the purchase price of changing the heavy truck is about 50,000 yuan more expensive than that of traditional fuel vehicles. From this point of view, compared with millions of pure electric heavy trucks, the purchase cost of changing electric heavy trucks is much lower.
In terms of operational efficiency, power exchange can reduce the vehicle's load capacity, which can make it weigh less. Compared with pure electric heavy trucks, it can carry more goods. In addition, the charging time of pure electric heavy trucks is generally about 2 hours, which will greatly reduce the operational efficiency of vehicles, and the time of power replacement can be comparable to that of traditional fuel vehicles, and 3-5 minutes can be quickly replenished, so as to achieve continuous operation of operating vehicles.
1.3 Many players have entered the game to change heavy trucks, and the matrix of power exchange products has gradually enriched
As early as February 2019, Valin Xingma's power-changing pure electric heavy truck began to demonstrate operation in the Yangtze River Delta; in September of the same year, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck & Baotou Steel Group's first power-swap mode dump truck was delivered. Up to now, many domestic players have begun to lay out the layout of heavy trucks, and the matrix of power exchange products has gradually enriched.
Looking at the current mainstream players of electric heavy trucks, they are roughly divided into three categories: one is the main engine factory represented by Liberation, Dongfeng, Sany, and Geely, and the power exchange service is part of the after-vehicle service market; the second is the Internet company led by Baidu; the third is the traditional bus manufacturing industry, such as Yutong, Jinlong and other brands have begun to "cross-border" into the power exchange heavy truck.
In 2021, the sales volume of the entire domestic heavy-duty truck market was 1.395 million units, down 14.1% year-on-year. In the next 2-3 years, the domestic heavy-duty truck market is very likely to be a stock market, and the electric heavy truck is an incremental market under the large stock market.
Judging from the sales ranking of domestic new energy heavy-duty trucks in 2021, the first place is Sany, followed by Yutong and Hanma Technology, and the head brands of traditional heavy-duty trucks such as Liberation, Shaanxi Automobile, and Hongyan are in the back. This also means that the differentiated track of heavy truck products is taking shape. This also creates opportunities for some innovative companies that strive to expand new tracks, creating opportunities for overtaking in corners.
2. Problems such as battery standardization and the construction and layout of power station replacement have become "roadblocks" for the large-scale application of heavy trucks for power exchange.
2.1 The standardization of batteries still has a long way to go
From the perspective of the heavy trucks currently put into the market, on the one hand, due to the non-uniform model of heavy truck models, there are different models such as tractors, dump trucks, sanitation vehicles, etc., the battery materials, sizes, installation locations, interfaces, etc. of different models are not uniform; on the other hand, the battery model brands between the models are not the same, such as the battery brands such as Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Power, BYD, etc. The batteries of these brands in the current market cannot be universalized.
The standardization of batteries is also the basis for sharing power exchange resources. Therefore, if the problem of standardization is not solved, it will hinder the establishment of the follow-up battery sharing mechanism and will also hinder the construction of subsequent substations.
2.2 The construction and layout of the substation is more difficult
At present, there are three main forms of power exchange: top swap mode, side swap mode and overall double swap mode.
Top-type power exchange is the earliest commercial power exchange method, which is characterized by simple technology and low cost. However, due to the simple technology of the top change mode, the driving skills of the driver are required to be higher.
Lateral power exchange is the most widely used power exchange method at present, and Hanma Technology, XCMG, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, etc. are all lateral power exchange modes. It is characterized by higher cost, more intelligent, and low requirements for driver driving skills.
The biggest feature of the overall double-sided power exchange is that the battery does not occupy the space of the cargo box, but the cost is also the highest among the three forms of power exchange.
Compared with charging stations, the replacement power station occupies less resources, but it also faces problems such as difficult planning and construction and operational difficulties.
First of all, although the state has introduced policies to support the development of the power exchange model, there is still a lack of relevant standards and norms for the construction of power exchange stations. Moreover, the construction requirements and subsidies for substations are not uniform in various places. This results in a strong regionality of the substation.
Secondly, the network layout and operation of the substation are facing difficulties. From the perspective of the layout of outlets, whether it is a self-built substation or a public substation, it is facing the problem of difficulty in the layout and site selection of outlets. Because the construction of the substation not only requires national land approval, but also needs to consider whether the site selection will bring convenience to the driver's power exchange and whether it will bring considerable benefits in the future.
Third, the profit model of the replacement power station is still unclear. The replacement fee of the heavy truck is based on the [power exchange degree * electricity unit price + service charge]. At present, there is no uniform standard for the service fees charged by each substation. The replacement power station itself is also in a state of exploration for its own profit model. However, the mode of power exchange is still in the stage of trial and error, and there is still time to explore.
2.3 The business model of separation of vehicle and electricity is not very mature
The mode of separation of vehicle and electricity has alleviated the cost problem of electric heavy trucks to a certain extent. Its model relies on the battery bank to buy the battery, and then lease the battery to the user in the form of leasing, which partially reduces the initial input cost of the end customer.
However, the current vehicle-to-electricity separation model is not very mature. On the one hand, the safety problems of the battery itself have not been solved, such as battery fire, leakage, high self-weight and other problems have not been corresponding to solve the measures. On the other hand, the business model of the entire separation of vehicle and electricity involves many links, in addition to the main engine factory, battery bank, TV operators shown in the above figure, including battery manufacturing, banks, investors, etc., which requires multi-party participation to operate the entire model of vehicle-electricity separation.
3. How much market potential does the replacement of heavy trucks have?
3.1 Changing heavy trucks will exist in specific scenarios, but it will not become the mainstream of the market
There are four major application scenarios for changing heavy trucks. One is a one-way mileage of about 100 kilometers of special line transportation, there is no need to replace the battery on the way; the second is a one-way mileage of about 150 kilometers of regional line short shuttle, there is no need to replace the battery on the way; the third is to close the port, which requires 24 hours of uninterrupted operation, in this case, the replacement power station is generally established in the port area; the fourth is the trunk line transportation with a mileage of about 350 kilometers, and the battery needs to be replaced on the way. At present, the application scenarios of changing heavy trucks are mainly concentrated in the first three.
In the scene of special needs such as short barges, coal mines, and ports in steel plants, the replacement of heavy trucks has made a great difference, on the one hand, the replacement of heavy trucks meets the national environmental protection requirements, on the other hand, because the electricity price is cheaper than the price of oil, so the operating costs are relatively low.
However, the replacement of heavy trucks will not become the mainstream of the market in the future.
First of all, due to the high battery weight, the load capacity is 1-2 tons less than that of traditional fuel heavy trucks. For the scene of trunk line transportation with high operational efficiency requirements, the cost performance of changing heavy trucks is not high.
Secondly, in addition to being subject to battery standardization, safety issues such as heat dissipation and ventilation of the battery itself need to be paid great attention to. These problems have greatly hindered the expansion of the application scenarios of changing heavy trucks.
3.2 Priority of new energy heavy trucks in the future: hydrogen energy heavy trucks> replace heavy trucks
From the perspective of the new energy heavy truck itself, first of all, the mileage provided by the existing battery technology of the replacement heavy truck is contrary to the nature of the natural medium and long-distance freight of the medium and heavy truck; and the fuel cell naturally has a high energy density, so under the same mileage, the endurance of the hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck is much higher than that of the heavy truck.
Secondly, in the low temperature environment, the mileage of the heavy truck will be shortened; while the hydrogen fuel cell is not limited by the environment, and the mileage of the normal state is still maintained at low temperatures.
Third, the self-importance of the battery replacement heavy truck is about 1-2 tons heavier than the hydrogen energy heavy truck, so the operating efficiency is lower than that of the hydrogen energy heavy truck.
From the perspective of technological development, although the power exchange form solves the mileage anxiety of some electric heavy trucks, the energy density dilemma of the battery is difficult to break through. At present, the mileage of hydrogen energy heavy trucks has exceeded that of electric heavy trucks, and there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.
From the perspective of substitution, the future of new energy heavy trucks will gradually replace fuel heavy trucks. Previously, the Transportation Research Institute has made a series of comparisons between hydrogen energy heavy trucks and fuel heavy trucks from the aspects of operational efficiency and TCO cost, and the penetration rate of hydrogen energy heavy trucks will gradually increase in the future, and it is most likely to replace traditional fuel heavy trucks. (Extended reading: "[Transportation Research] Can Hydrogen Heavy Trucks Replace Fuel Heavy Trucks?) 》）