(Report Producer/Author: Tianfeng Securities, Guo Lili)
1. The dual factor is favorable, and the power exchange industry is expected to usher in rapid growth
1.1. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the "14th Five-Year Plan" has increased sharply, and the demand for related supporting facilities has accelerated
The sales volume and ownership of new energy vehicles are expected to grow rapidly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Since 2017, new energy vehicles have gradually received attention in the domestic automotive market, and sales and ownership have increased steadily. After the slogan of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" was proposed, the growth rate further increased. In 2021, sales of new energy vehicles were 3.52 million units, an increase of 157% year-on-year, and the proportion of total vehicle sales increased from 2.7% in 2017 to 13.4%. The number of new energy vehicles reached 7.84 million in 2021, an increase of 59% year-on-year, and the proportion rose from 0.7% in 2017 to 2.6%.
According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association and the guidelines of the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan", the annual sales of automobiles in China are expected to reach 30 million in 2025, of which new energy vehicles will account for 20%, with annual sales of 6 million vehicles. According to the sales forecast and the current ownership accounting, the number of new energy vehicles will exceed 27.7 million in 2025, and the four-year CAGR will be 37.1%. At that time, the proportion of new energy vehicle ownership will increase from 2.6% in 2021 to 6.7% in 2025. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, related supporting facilities will also usher in major opportunities.
1.2. Charging pile is the main body of current energy replenishment, and power exchange ushers in development
Compared with fuel vehicles, replenishment is an important consideration for users to purchase new energy vehicles, which is divided into two types: charging and power exchange, and charging is currently the mainstream of the market. According to the statistics of the China Charging Alliance, by the end of 2021, the mainland has a total of 75,000 charging stations, and the growth rate is generally stable from the previous month, about 2%. There were 1298 substations, showing a rapid growth trend from the previous month, reaching a record high of 22% in October.
After 10 years of development, charging piles have formed a certain scale nationwide. However, compared with charging, power exchange can effectively solve the user's mileage anxiety, improve the driver's income, eliminate the safety hazard of the battery, and reduce the user's first purchase cost.
1.2.1. Sub-box power exchange and chassis power exchange are the mainstream power exchange types
The power exchange mode refers to the centralized storage, centralized charging, unified distribution of a large number of batteries through the centralized charging station, and the battery replacement service for electric vehicles in the battery distribution station or the mode of battery charging, logistics allocation and power exchange service.
At present, there are two types of passenger cars on the market: module sub-box power exchange and integral chassis power exchange. The main representatives of chassis power exchange are BAIC BJEV and Weilai, and the representatives of module sub-box power exchange are Lifan and Hangzhou Botan.
Chassis power exchange to Weilai as an example, first by the power exchange engineer to fix the vehicle in the corresponding position, and then the replacement room will be raised from the bottom of the vehicle, the mechanical arm will be the chassis of the vehicle battery pulled out and placed in the control room, and then from the control room to insert the new battery into the bottom of the car for reinstallation.
When the vehicle drives on the operating table, the battery compartment of the chassis drops to expose the battery, and the special clip is put into the battery transmission system by the staff or the robot arm, and then the fully charged battery is inserted into the battery slot. Sub-box power exchange will make the battery package into a standardized, removable power battery box, according to the needs of the model in the bottom of the vehicle to arrange a different number of standard box power batteries, to achieve the compatibility of the power station equipment and models.
Commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks and mining trucks are divided into three types: overall single-sided, integral double-sided, and ceiling-mounted power exchange. The ceiling suspension type power exchange adopts a steel cable hoisting battery pack, which can be compatible with specific parking errors due to the flexibility of the steel cable. Therefore, the ceiling-mounted power exchange technology is simple, low cost and good feasibility, which is the earliest commercial means.
The overall unilateral power exchange has a high degree of intelligence, and the requirements for driver professionalism are low. However, due to the rigidity of the battery grasping mechanism, if the parking position of the vehicle deviates from the established position, it is easy to cause damage to the guiding mechanism, and due to the high requirements for control accuracy, it is necessary to support lidar and vision sensors and other equipment, resulting in a higher cost than the ceiling type power exchange.
The overall double-sided power exchange advantage is that the battery does not occupy the container space, which is more suitable for mining cards with limited battery storage locations, and fits the specific needs of models with double-sided batteries. However, due to its need to be equipped with two sets of robots and battery storage charging silos at the same time, the cost is relatively high.
1.2.2. The average power exchange time is 3-5 minutes, which effectively alleviates user mileage anxiety and improves driver revenue
Although most of the public charging piles have adopted the fast charging mode, the charging time of more than half an hour will also cause users to queue up to charge, and the actual charging time may be longer. In addition, fast charging usually uses a large current, which will also damage the battery life. Although slow charging reduces battery loss, the 6-8 hour charging time is more suitable for private car users, and it is more disadvantageous for profitable models such as operating cars and commercial vehicles.
Operating cars such as taxis and ride-hailing cars value profitability, and after only considering the monthly income and recharge costs, the monthly income of drivers in the power exchange mode has increased. Assuming that the taxi driver works a total of 12 hours a day (including the replenishment time), travels an average of 40 kilometers per hour, refers to the Beijing taxi charging standard, charges 2 yuan per kilometer after exceeding the starting price, and the taxi battery capacity is 60kwh (referring to the BAIC EU5 model), and the remaining power is 20% of the power. It has been calculated that after the energy replenishment cost, the single-day income of the use of fast charging is 843 yuan, the single-day income of the use of power exchange can reach 876 yuan, and the monthly income of the driver can be increased by about 1000 yuan.
Commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks serving coastal ports, large logistics parks, mining areas and other places have high power consumption, and the number of energy replenishment times in a single day is more; at the same time, the battery capacity is large and the charging time is longer. After the power exchange, the operation time can be effectively improved and continuous operation can be achieved. Heavy-duty truck batteries generally have a capacity of 282kwh, a range of 150-200 kilometers, and a single-day driving range of 300-500 hectares, which needs to be replenished twice a day. The fast charge time is 1-1.5 hours/time, and the power change can save the driver 2-3 hours of working time compared with fast charge, improving profitability.
1.2.3. The battery is subject to unified monitoring and management by the operator of the substation to increase the safety factor
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned in the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of The New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Model" (hereinafter referred to as the "Pilot Work Notice") that the power exchange mode has certain advantages in improving the safety level.
The proportion of recalls caused by power battery accidents is still increasing. According to the recall announcement statistics of the State Administration for Market Regulation, the recall of vehicles due to power battery problems in mainland China accounted for 18.7% of the total recall in 2019, and 31.3% in 2020, and power batteries are the main reason for the recall of new energy vehicles and the proportion is still rising.
The accident rate caused by power batteries has not decreased with technological progress. According to the incomplete statistics of the "2020 Electric Vehicle Fire Accident Analysis", only in 2020, there were more than 120 new energy vehicle safety accidents (spontaneous combustion + smoke) caused by power battery failures reported by the media, and the accident rate was basically the same as in 2019. Referring to the improvement of battery safety technology and the withdrawal of old vehicles, the accident rate has not decreased, which confirms that the battery safety problem still exists.
In the power exchange mode, the battery is uniformly managed by the operator and charged at a stable current at the appropriate temperature, which can effectively improve the battery safety factor. In addition, the substation has a variety of monitoring systems, including vision, smoke, temperature and BMS (battery management system) mechanism, which can carry out safety monitoring of all batteries in the station and eliminate the batteries with safety hazards at the first time.
The BRMS (Real-Time Monitoring System) in NIO's BMS mechanism is mainly responsible for monitoring and predicting safety-related status. Through the after-sales team and power exchange, the battery pack can be processed before the abnormality occurs, and the engineer can confirm the cause of the abnormality and formulate an improvement plan at the first time. As a way to increase the frequency of battery replacement, WEILAI has more battery pack sample data for analysis. Considering comprehensively, compared with the charging mode, power exchange has obvious advantages in enhancing the safety of car owners.
1.2.4. The "Vehicle-To-Electricity Separation" mode can reduce the user's upfront car purchase cost
The "separation of vehicle and electricity" model derived from the power exchange industry can effectively reduce the threshold for users to buy a car for the first time. Vehicle-to-electricity separation is based on the replacement of electricity, after the customer purchases the whole vehicle, the battery management company buys back the battery property rights, and the customer obtains the right to use the battery in the form of leasing, realizing the separation of the value of vehicle electricity, which is a way for customers to reduce the initial car purchase cost.
In June 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products (Batch 333)" for the first time in the new product name of the replacement model, and marked with the words "separation of vehicle and electricity" in the other information part of the announcement, the model initially entered the market.
Nio's BaaS (Battery as a Service) battery rental service took the lead in establishing a third-party leasing company to establish a marketing service system for battery rental and exchangeability based on the replacement power station. The ownership of the new energy frame (excluding batteries) belongs to the user, and the ownership of the power battery is transferred to the battery asset company. Users only need to pay the battery rental fee, no need to worry about the depreciation caused by battery depreciation, and the "separation of vehicle and electricity" model has gradually matured.
In addition to Weilai, many car companies such as FAW, BAIC, Dongfeng, Geely and Xiaopeng Automobile have launched power-changing models. According to our calculations, after the "separation of vehicle and electricity" in passenger cars, the cost of first purchase can be reduced by 20%-40%.
Pure electric heavy trucks (dump trucks, tractors, trucks, sanitation vehicles, special vehicles, etc.) batteries are more expensive, and the use of "vehicle-to-electricity separation" can reduce more upfront car purchase costs.
Since 2021, the rapid development is represented by the heavy trucks of new energy logistics (tractors, dump trucks, trucks, excluding dump trucks). As of September 2021, the sales volume of logistics heavy trucks accounted for 68.43% of the sales of new energy heavy trucks, of which the proportion of power replacement models reached 45.13%, which was the highest sales model among new energy logistics heavy trucks.
Overall, as of mid-May 2021, the number of trams was 155,900, an increase of 30% over 2019. With the increase in the number of power replacement models launched by car companies, the improvement of the demand for power exchange efficiency in operating vehicles and commercial vehicles, and the improvement of the business model of "separation of vehicle and electricity", we expect that the sales of electric vehicles with electric vehicles will continue to increase.
1.3. The policy promotes the growth rate of the power exchange industry, and the charging experience can be used as a reference
1.3.1. The industry standards are unified, the subsidies are clear, and the charging industry is developing rapidly
In 2012, the State Council issued the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Development Plan"), encouraging the establishment of independently operated charging and replacing enterprises, and the construction of charging facilities is compatible with the scale of production and marketing of new energy vehicles. With the acceleration of the growth rate of electric vehicles, charging piles and charging stations have entered a stage of rapid development.
In 2015, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure", which made unified requirements for improving the standard specifications of charging facilities and increased the financial incentives for the construction of charging infrastructure, and the charging industry encouraged the implementation of policies to accelerate.
In 2016, the "5 National Standards for Electric Vehicle Charging Interface and Communication Protocol" and the "Information Exchange of Electric Vehicle Charging and Replacement Service" respectively made unified requirements for the charging interface and communication protocol of new energy vehicles, realizing the docking and interoperability of charging piles. The "13th Five-Year Plan" New Energy Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Incentive Policy and Strengthening the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles gives financial subsidies to the construction of charging piles and operators at the central financial level, and the bonus funds are used exclusively for the construction and operation of charging facilities and other related fields.
Since then, various provinces and cities have successively clarified the construction, operation level and subsidy standards for consumers of charging facilities. Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu have all given one-time financial subsidies to charging equipment since 2016 (beijing is not higher than 30% of the total investment of the project, Shanghai and Chengdu are 30%), and the upper limit of subsidies is set according to the classification of DC and AC. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, except for Chengdu's construction subsidies in 2020, which decreased by 100-200 yuan/kw compared with 2019, the construction subsidies of the remaining three cities remained largely unchanged.
In addition, the charging pile operation stage has also received corresponding subsidies. For example, since 2016, Shanghai has implemented charging and replacing facilities in specific industries such as public transportation and sanitation to be subsidized by 0.1 yuan / kwh, and the subsidy ceiling is 2000kwh / year. In 2020, the shanghai operating subsidy will be increased from a maximum of 200 yuan per year to 800 yuan. The daily reward standard in Beijing is 0.1 yuan / kWh, with a maximum of 1500 kWh / year. Chengdu will increase the charging operation subsidy from 2020, and the subsidy standard is 0.1 yuan / kwh for 10 million kWh and within the part subsidy, 10 million kWh to 20 million kWh partial subsidy 0.15 yuan / kWh, and more than 20 million kWh part subsidy 0.2 yuan / kWh.
In terms of users, Shanghai gives consumers a subsidy of 5,000 yuan for the charging cost of new energy vehicles, a subsidy of 0.4 yuan / kwh for new energy taxis, and Hefei gives an electricity incentive of 2,000 yuan to individual users of new energy passenger cars. It is worth noting that the above subsidies are implemented until the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" stage.
In January 2022, the Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure was released, and the subsidy side will continue to increase financial support, give financial support to the construction of public charging piles, and link subsidies with service quality to promote the smooth transition of charging piles from the construction period to the operation period.
The policy continues to land, and the scale of charging piles has increased rapidly. According to the data of the Charging Alliance, by the end of 2020, the total number of public charging piles in the mainland has exceeded 800,000 units, and the number of private charging piles has reached 870,000. Due to the continuous expansion of volume, the growth rate of charging pile ownership has gradually stabilized, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56.4% and 24.4% in 2020, respectively.
1.3.2. The power exchange policy has landed, and the industry growth rate is about to climb
Based on the power exchange mode can effectively solve the demand for energy efficiency in subdivisions such as operating vehicles and commercial vehicles, the "Government Work Report" in 2020 and 2021 mentions "increasing charging piles, substations and other facilities", and the substation will develop together with charging piles as supporting facilities in the future.
The safety standards for power exchange are unified, and the pilot work is officially launched. In October 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Pilot Work Notice", selecting 11 pilot cities according to factors such as policy intensity and power exchange experience, including 8 cities with comprehensive applications (Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Sanya, Chongqing, Changchun, Hefei, Jinan), and 3 cities with heavy truck characteristics (Yibin, Tangshan, Baotou), with the goal of promoting more than 100,000 power exchange vehicles and building more than 1,000 new substations. As the first stage of the nationwide promotion of power exchange, the pilot cities will accelerate the formation of replicable experiences in the power exchange industry. The "Electric Vehicle Replacement Safety Requirements" implemented in November is the first basic general national standard for the power exchange mode, and the document clearly stipulates the design of the power exchange vehicle, the connection of the power exchange interface, the function of the battery pack and related monitoring requirements, which ensures the safety of the use of the power exchange vehicle from three angles: mechanical strength, electrical safety and environmental adaptability, provides standard support for the development of the power exchange mode, and guides the development of the industry's reasonable specifications.
The subsidy standard for substation replacement stations has been promulgated and will gradually be popularized in the future. In order to speed up the construction of substations, since May 2021, The cities of Qingdao, Hainan and Dalian, Liaoning Province have successively promulgated subsidy standards for substations, with reference to the single station investment of 5 million yuan in passenger car replacement power stations, and the maximum one-time construction subsidy of 1.5 million yuan can be obtained. With the rapid growth of power stations in the future, provinces and cities may successively introduce subsidy standards.
At present, the power exchange industry is still in the early stage of development, with reference to the development history of charging piles, with the gradual unification of the future power exchange industry standards and the gradual improvement of the subsidy policies of various provinces and cities, the growth rate of the replacement power station will also be further improved. (Source: Future Think Tank)
2. Policy favor, the upper and middle reaches of the enterprise layout of the power exchange operation field
The power exchange industry chain can be divided into major upstream substation battery suppliers and equipment manufacturers, midstream substation construction and operators, and downstream new energy vehicle users and power battery recycling enterprises.
At present, the replacement power station is mainly built by Weilai, Aodong New Energy and Hangzhou Botan. Other new substation operators are not included in the Charging Union statistics because the number of substations does not exceed 100. As of December 2021, Sinopec has completed 65 substations. SPIC's first charging and swapping power station was delivered and put into operation in December 2020, and 22 internal acceptance substations will be completed by June 2021. In October 2021, GCL Energy's first batch of substations "GCL Electric Port" began to be put into operation, including 1 commercial substation and 3 passenger car substations, and the Group said that it will put into operation more than 30 substations nationwide by the end of the year.
2.1. Battery companies benefit from the battery reserve requirements of replacement power stations
For battery suppliers upstream of the industrial chain, because each substation will reserve the corresponding battery, the large-scale operation of the substation will lead to a surge in demand for power batteries, so power battery manufacturers have laid out the power exchange industry since 2020.
Taking the industry leader Ningde Era as an example, in 2020, the layout of the power replacement industry began, which is the earliest power battery enterprise involved in the field of power exchange. In July 2020, CATL and BAIC BJEV Vehicle Electric Separation Project were officially signed, and CATL entered the power exchange operation industry as a battery manufacturer. In August, three enterprises, including CATL and NIO, invested in the establishment of Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd. to promote the development of a new business model of "separation of vehicle and electricity". In 2021, the company invested in Langu Wisdom, a power exchange and power battery echelon utilization business company under BAIC Group, to further enhance its participation in the power exchange market.
In January 2022, Times Electric Service, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CATL, launched the replacement brand EVOGO, which will be launched in the first batch in 10 cities, as the first upstream battery supplier to build a self-built substation.
The newly designed "Chocolate Switcher" battery uses the company's latest CTP technology to provide a range of 200 kilometers. In the sub-box power exchange mode, the owner can arbitrarily select one or more batteries to adapt to different mileage needs when changing the power. In addition, the battery can be applied to passenger cars and logistics vehicles from A00 class to Class B and Class C, and the first cooperative model is faw bestow NAT combination power exchange version, and at least two products will be released during the year. At present, the pure electric models on the market can also achieve battery generalization as long as they can be equipped with conversion brackets on the basis of the vehicle battery installation space. The substation will be adapted to 80% of the world's pure electric platform development models that are already on the market and will be available in the next three years.
Other companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech said in August 2020 that the company has a layout in the electrification and replacement of heavy trucks; Sunwoda was selected as a supplier of Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile Co., Ltd. in September 2020 to supply the total finished product of power batteries for its power exchange project; Rip Energy signed a "power exchange alliance" cooperation agreement with Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle, Qinou Power and Bozhong Seiko in October 2020; BYD and Fordy Battery Co., Ltd. joined hands with Didi Chuxing and China Southern Power Grid electric vehicle services in December 2020 The limited company jointly launched the "world's first batch of intelligent energy operations for the separation of vehicle electricity value", which confirms the recognition of battery manufacturers for the future development of the power exchange industry.
2.2. The space for substation operators is vast, and car companies and central state-owned enterprises have entered the game
Due to the low ownership of the current substation in the midstream, the number of substations in the first three enterprises that have laid out the substation operation in the early stage has not exceeded 800, and the future industry pattern is not clear.
Guided by policies, from 2020, central state-owned enterprises will enter the power exchange industry. State Grid, China Southern Power Grid and other power grid enterprises began to seek cooperation with automakers, battery manufacturers to build a replacement power station, Sinopec as an energy enterprise also signed a contract with Weilai and Aodong New Energy, in Sinopec's network layout of the replacement power station. As more enterprises join successively, the future competitive pattern of the power exchange industry will become more and more intense, but with the capital inflow of enterprises outside the industry and the cooperation between enterprises, the power exchange industry will develop faster in the future. (Source: Future Think Tank)
3. At present, car companies are in a core position, and the C-end market will be expanded after the standard is unified, and the scale of the industry is expected to increase
At present, China's power exchange business operators are mainly divided into three categories: third-party power exchange operators represented by Aodong New Energy, Botan Technology, and GCL Energy; OEMs represented by WEILAI, BAIC New Energy, Geely, etc.; and central state-owned enterprises such as State Power Investment and Sinopec.
3.1. Car companies are at the core of the power exchange industry
OEMs often operate in a closed-loop manner, and the substations built only provide power exchange services for models within their own systems, and it is difficult for different car companies to share the same substation due to incompatible models, chassis structures and battery modules. Third-party operators can serve a variety of brand models on the market, and the compatibility is better, but because it needs to cooperate with multiple car companies and battery manufacturers, it takes a long time to reach consensus.
With the promotion of policies, state-owned enterprises such as State Power Investment, PetroChina, and Sinopec have also begun to lay out the construction of replacement power stations. State-owned enterprises tend to have more resource advantages. By the end of 2020, has the world's largest installed capacity of new energy, and as a power generator, it has a unique advantage in the power cost of substations. PetroChina and Sinopec can also rely on a perfect gas station network to occupy the geographical advantage by building a replacement power station in the gas station, and can reduce the corresponding rental costs.
At present, under the premise that the battery replacement standard is not unified, due to the different types of batteries used by various car companies, the vehicle factory plays a core role in the current power exchange operators. Third-party operators need to work with car companies to gain more market space.
3.2. The standard of power exchange is expected to be unified, and the location, price and service may become the determining factors
In the field of heavy trucks and mining trucks for commercial vehicles, it is relatively easy to unify the standards of battery packs. In the current market heavy trucks, the battery capacity is mostly concentrated in 282kwh and 350kwh. In the "Smart Mobility Conference" held in June 2021, 11 of the 13 heavy-duty trucks exhibited were equipped with 282kwh of NINGDE era lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the battery capacity, battery manufacturers, and battery types all consistently indicated the possibility of unified battery packs in the field of heavy trucks. In addition, unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles pay more attention to actual operational efficiency rather than appearance and driving experience, and the demand for personalized customization of batteries is not high, which provides favorable conditions for the unification of power exchange standards.
In terms of passenger cars, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the news in October 2021 that the group standard of the "Construction Standards for Electric Passenger Car Sharing and Replacement Power Stations" (hereinafter referred to as the "Construction Code") has passed the review and was officially released on December 22 of the same year. The standard is jointly formulated by battery suppliers Ningde Times, Sunwoda, the automakers GAC Group, Weilai, BAIC BJEV, third-party operators Botan Science and Technology, GCL Energy, Aodong New Energy and other parties to jointly participate in the formulation of the standards for the substation in 12 aspects such as battery packs, power exchange mechanisms, and power station layout planning, and all parties are looking forward to the promotion of battery standardization in the power exchange industry.
Part 5 of the Construction Code specifically requires battery pack technology, stipulating factors such as the size, charge and voltage of the battery pack of chassis-type transfer passenger cars. For the sake of the compatibility requirements of different substations, the battery pack inclusion size is limited to a length of not more than 2100 mm, a width of not more than 1540 mm, a height of no more than 280 cm, and according to two shapes of four typical battery pack inclusions, for the future battery pack size of the unified proposed reference standard.
In the future, with the advancement of battery standardization, the replacement power station may be compatible with more models, and the situation with the car company as the core may not be there. Aodong New Energy has begun to build a shared replacement power station, operators do not stipulate the battery cell brand and specifications, only need to stipulate the battery pack size and physical interface, you can achieve multi-brand, multi-model shared power exchange. With the further popularization of shared substations, the location of substations, the level of fees charged, and the quality of services may become the core factors that determine the market share of various enterprises.
3.3. The unified power exchange standard helps to open up the C-end market, and "station compatibility" is expected to increase the scale of the industry
At present, the downstream users of the power exchange industry are mainly operating cars and commercial vehicles, and only a small number of car companies such as Weilai have launched battery rental services involving private power exchanges. However, with the further popularization of power exchange and the increased compatibility of power exchange stations, operators will enter the private consumer market.
As a third-party operator, improving the compatibility of substations is the main way to increase the user base. Aodong New Energy's "Red Aodong Strategic Plan" will achieve "station compatibility" through shared power exchange, that is, a substation can change the power of multiple models, and promote the replacement operator to further enter the private power exchange market; GCL Energy's passenger car substation can also be compatible with more than two power exchange models; the "EVOGO" substation in the Ningde era can also be compatible with a variety of models to be listed through the standardization of the replacement block.
At present, it is more difficult to achieve battery unification at the level of car companies, but Geely, Weilai, SAIC and other car companies have launched standard battery packs suitable for their own models. Through "station compatibility", substation operators can exchange multiple models of the same brand and extend to the C-end market.
3.4. According to the calculation of enterprise planning, the number of substations is expected to reach 30,000 in 2025
The operators of the substation have announced the construction plan of the substation in the next five years, Aodong New Energy and Chang'an New Energy said that they will invest in the construction of more than 10,000 substations by 2025, Sinopec, Geely and GCL Energy also have a target plan of 5,000, and Weilai and SPC each plan to add 4,000 new substations. Only by announcing the number of enterprises that announce the planned number of enterprises to make a large calculation, and excluding the overlap caused by the cooperation between the two sides to build stations (such as Sinopec, State Power Investment, etc. will cooperate with Weilai and Aodong New Energy), the number of substations will reach at least 20,000 in 2025. Considering operators that have not yet announced specific plans, such as Hangzhou Botan, we expect that by 2025, the number of replacement power stations will reach 30,000.
3.5. Under pessimistic, neutral and optimistic conditions, the number of substations is 10197, 18354 and 26511 respectively
It can also be measured according to the number of power exchange models. As of the end of October 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 6.78 million, of which the number of replacement models was about 150,000, accounting for 2.1%, assuming that the monthly growth rate of the replacement models and the new energy vehicles in November and December was the same, and the number of replacement models at the end of 2021 was about 165,000. Through the sensitivity analysis of the total number of required replacement power stations under three situations of pessimism, neutrality and optimism, the proportion of the number of replacement trams under pessimistic, neutral and optimistic conditions increased by 2%, 4% and 6% respectively.
As of June 2021, Beijing has promoted a total of 23,000 electric vehicles, of which 12,000 are rental vehicles, accounting for 52%, taking Beijing as a reference, assuming that by the end of 2021, the proportion of electric vehicles in the country will account for 50% of the number of replacement trams, due to the higher demand for electric vehicles, the proportion will continue to increase in the future, and it is expected to increase by 5% per year. The current proportion of e-commerce vehicles is about 10%, and due to its strong demand for replacement, the proportion will also increase in the future, assuming an annual growth of 1%.
Based on the daily travel of the operating car of 400 kilometers, each full battery can support a mileage of 150-200 kilometers, and the number of power changes in a single day is 1-1.6 times, and the average value is 1.3 times. The full battery of the commercial heavy truck can support 165 km of mileage (the battery power is 282kwh, the power consumption of 100 km is about 170 degrees), measured at 400 km per day, and the power needs to be changed 1.5 times a day. In terms of private cars, due to the current low demand for power exchange, the combination of fast charging and slow charging can meet the daily urban driving, and only in the case of long-distance driving will produce power replacement demand, assuming that the average weekly power is changed 1 time.
In terms of substation replacement, private cars and operating vehicles take the latest second-generation substation of NIO as an example, which can meet the demand for power replacement up to 312 times a day. The maximum number of power exchanges in a single day for heavy truck replacement power stations is 300 times, and the minimum value of the required replacement power station can be obtained according to the above values, that is, a conservative value. According to the corresponding assumptions, it can be obtained that by 2025, the minimum number of power exchange stations in the three cases is 10197, 18354, and 26511. Based on the number of substations by the end of 2021 of 1298, the CAGR for the next four years will be 67%, 94% and 113%, respectively.
Measured by investing 5 million yuan in a single passenger car replacement station and 10.15 million yuan in a single commercial vehicle replacement station, the total investment in the substation will reach 60.9 billion, 109.7 billion and 158.5 billion by 2025 under pessimistic, neutral and optimistic conditions.
4. The number of beneficiary replacement models has increased, and the operating efficiency of the replacement power station can exceed the break-even point
4.1. Passenger car replacement plant utilization rate of more than 25% is profitable
The full capacity of the battery of the passenger car is 50kwh, and the charging standard used in the current replacement power station is the number of power exchange degrees (electricity * + service fee), and the power exchange degree is the difference between the remaining power of the vehicle and the full battery capacity when the power is replaced, which is converted into a kWh income of about 1.75 yuan / kWh according to the charging standard of 0.35 yuan / km. On the revenue side, we assume that the power is replaced when the remaining power is 15%, and the maximum number of power changes per substation is 312 times in a single day.
In terms of cost, with reference to the electricity price of the flat end of the large industry, the electricity price cost is about 0.7 yuan / kWh; the land rent of the substation is 200,000 yuan / year, and each substation is equipped with 3 related staff, and the annual salary is 100,000 yuan / person.
In terms of depreciation, the fixed assets in the early period (including related equipment investment, grid cable costs, etc.) are 3.6 million yuan, with a depreciation period of 10 years; the average price of batteries is 40,000 yuan / piece, and the remaining residual value is converted to 10% after 2450 times (3500 full fills and 70% will be used in cascades).
Finally, according to the sensitivity analysis of the operation efficiency of the substation, a single substation needs to change the power more than 79 times a day to achieve profitability, and the corresponding utilization rate is 25%. When the maximum number of times used in the substation reaches the maximum number of times, the corresponding EBIT profit margin is 27.9%, the net profit margin is 20.9%, calculated based on the initial investment of 5 million yuan, and the return cycle is 1.1 years.
4.2. The return cycle of commercial heavy-duty truck replacement stations is shorter, and the operational efficiency is more than 29% and it begins to be profitable
The commercial vehicle profit model is similar to that of passenger cars, with a battery capacity of 282kwh and 10% of the remaining power to be replaced. KWh revenue is $1.35 and kWh cost is $0.7. The investment in fixed assets in the early stage is 6.55 million yuan, the depreciation period is 10 years, and the battery purchase cost is 350,000 yuan / block. Through sensitivity analysis, it can be found that a single substation needs to be replaced more than 87 times a day to achieve profitability, corresponding to a utilization rate of 29%. When the maximum number of times the replacement station reaches the maximum number of uses, the corresponding EBIT profit margin is 7.5% and the net profit margin is 5.7%, calculated based on the initial investment of 10.151 million yuan, and the return cycle is 0.58 years.
5. Analysis of key companies
5.1. GCL Energy
The company's main business is clean energy power generation, cogeneration and integrated energy services. In March 2021, the company announced the "GCL Energy Co., Ltd. Electric Vehicle Replacement Business Development Plan", and began to lay out the mobile energy business, that is, to provide power exchange services for electric vehicles. In June, the company raised 3.38 billion yuan for the construction of 485 substations in the next two years. In October, GCL Electric Port Brand Replacement Power Station was put into operation, and according to the company's plan, it will reach 5,000 by 2025.
As an independent third-party operator, the company has signed cooperation agreements with many car companies such as FAW, Geely, Sany, didi, Caocao and other travel platforms, and is committed to creating four major application scenarios of online ride-hailing, taxis, heavy trucks and private cars, focusing on the layout of the Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Bay Area, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing and key cities in the north.
The company's self-developed substation has a good compatibility in the field of passenger cars and commercial vehicles. (1) Passenger cars: compatible with more than two power exchange models; the company is developing standard battery packs and a new generation of locking mechanisms, which will serve all power exchange models that use standard battery packs in the future. (2) Commercial vehicles: The company's commercial vehicle replacement power station is currently compatible with the power exchange vehicles of Futian, Geely, Sany and other OEMs, and the suitable models are tractors, muck trucks, mine vehicles, etc.
As a clean energy power generation enterprise, the company has a unique synergy advantage on the operation side of the substation. (1) The cost of electricity is low and the profit margin is large. The company's main business is clean energy power generation, the company and its controlling shareholder GCL Group's total installed capacity of clean energy exceeds 20GW, which can provide large-scale, low-cost green power supply for the power exchange business; at the same time, the company has more than 20 electricity sales licenses, and its own power sales company can access the replacement power station at low cost to effectively reduce energy prices. (2) Rely on the layout of power plants to solve the difficulty of increasing power capacity. The company's existing power plants are concentrated in the central cities of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, and the location is highly overlapping with the target market of the power exchange business. The company can rely on the public facilities of the power plant to build a centralized charging port, and lay out-of-grid power stations in the city center, that is, mobile trams, to effectively solve the pain points of urban power capacity increase difficulties. At the same time, the battery charging process in the tram is carried out in the company's power plant, which can enjoy the low-cost electricity price of the free power plant; the process also does not have to pay land and part of the installation fee, which can minimize the initial capital investment. (3) Rich energy storage scenarios, fully excavate the value of battery ladder utilization. Under the power exchange mode, the battery loss rate is relatively fast, the battery life cycle is relatively short, and the current new energy vehicle decommissioned power battery recycling price is low and the performance can meet the requirements of the energy storage power station. The company currently manages 26MWh user-side energy storage projects, and as a leading enterprise in national heat point cogeneration and integrated energy services, it has rich energy storage application scenarios and can fully tap the value of battery cascade utilization.
5.2. Shandong Weida
The company belongs to the machinery manufacturing industry, the main business is drill chucks and accessories, precision casting products, automation equipment and other industrial products research and development, design, production and sales. Power tool accessories business, high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing business and new energy business are the three major sectors of the company.
In terms of power exchange, the company acquired Suzhou Demike in 2015, which is a provider of intelligent equipment and intelligent manufacturing solutions, and since then Shandong Weida has begun to carry out power exchange equipment research and development and technical reserves. In August 2017, Suzhou Demaike and Wuhan Weilai Energy Co., Ltd. (WEILAI Holding Company) jointly established Kunshan Swopu Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. As the holding company of Shandong Weida, Kunshan Swopu is the leader in the domestic new energy vehicle charging and replacing industry, and is also the main supplier of Weilai replacement power station.
In May 2018, kunshan Swopp's WEILAI generation replacement power station was put into operation. In April 2021, Weilai's first second-generation replacement power station "Sinopec Chaoying Station" was officially opened. As of October 2021, Shandong Weida is the exclusive supplier of NIO's second-generation substation. Compared with the first generation, the number of daily power changes in the second generation of substations has jumped from 120 times to 312 times, with more reserve batteries and higher operational efficiency. As of December 10, 2021, NIO has laid out 700 substations nationwide, including 203 first-generation substations and 497 second-generation substations.
According to NIO's 2025 plan, 4,000 substations will be built worldwide, including 3,000 in the Chinese market. At present, the previous generation of replacement power stations is no longer produced, according to the second generation of 500 power stations (2025 to 2800 growth), an average of 575 new power stations per year, the next 4 years compound growth rate of up to 54%. The rapid growth in the number of substations will improve the operational efficiency of Shandong Weida, while bringing a significant increase in profits.
In addition to being the upstream equipment supplier of the power exchange industry, in December 2020, Shandong Weida invested in Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Wuhan Weineng Battery Company"), with a shareholding ratio of 8.18%, and began to get involved in the power battery leasing business in the downstream of the industry. Wuhan Weineng Battery Company is mainly responsible for the battery asset management business under the "vehicle-to-electricity separation" model, and with the wide acceptance of "vehicle-to-electricity separation", the company is trying to cooperate with other car companies outside of Weilai, with the goal of managing 100 billion battery assets by 2025. With the further expansion of the business scope of the battery asset management company, Shandong Weida will obtain more non-operating net income.
5.3. Hanchuan Intelligence
The company's main business is intelligent equipment manufacturing, products are mainly used in automotive electronics, medical health, new energy and industrial interconnection of the four major industries, power exchange for the company's new energy business new focus direction.
Benefiting from the technical accumulation of automotive electronics and new energy lithium battery equipment, the company can use the existing production line to extend to the power exchange equipment supply, which has certain advantages in the design and research and development of the replacement power station, and won the "2021 Best Power Exchange Technology Award" in the annual selection of China's power exchange industry. At the same time, based on the existing understanding of the automotive industry and the new energy lithium battery industry, the competitive advantages of carrying out power exchange business are obvious.
The company provides overall solutions for substations, and the customer groups are battery manufacturers, power swap business operators and automakers who have laid out power swap business. Relevant orders have been landed since 2021, and the mass production and smooth delivery of the substation will be realized in 2022. In February 2022, the company reached a five-year cooperation agreement with GCL Energy, and may participate in the relevant production work of GCL Electric Port in the future. As the power exchange industry enters the fast lane, the company will rely on the advantages of technology and experience to harvest more orders from downstream customers.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].