Starting from the sales analysis in January 2022, Tong Jiren Automobile Research Institute has analyzed the passenger car market into three categories: scooters, mainstream cars, and high-end cars by classifying car usage scenarios and needs.
This article is an analysis of high-end cars, covering luxury brands, high-end new power brand models and high-end models of some ordinary brands.
Sales: There are almost no cars to choose from in the middle price zone
1. Sales volume of high-end vehicles in January
New vehicle sales in the high-end car market in January were 399,450 units, down 0.51% year-on-year, accounting for 17.7% of the passenger car market. The overall growth rate of the high-end car market is slowing down, and the local market has begun to have endogenous iterations due to changes in product evaluation standards.
From the perspective of power type, the proportion of fuel vehicles in the high-end car market is comparable to that of the mainstream car market, but the proportion of pure electric vehicles is higher, close to 10%. Hybrid and plug-in hybrids account for less than 5% of the high-end car market, and with the exception of a very small number of brands, hybrid models are a niche option in the high-end car market.
2. Share by city line level and price segment
According to the city line level, first- and second-tier cities account for 76% of the high-end car market, which is significantly higher than the overall 53% share of the passenger car market. The iteration of high-end cars in high-line cities to mainstream cars, the interception of high-end new forces in high-line cities to the future crowd of luxury brands, and the penetration of high-end cars in low-end cities are the three main trends in the high-end car market.
According to the price segment, 250,000-500,000 yuan accounts for 80% of the high-end car market, while the market share of several other price segments is around 5%. High-end cars are difficult to rely on brand advantages to explore without a bottom line, and in the price range of more than 500,000 yuan, they also face obstacles to the changing needs of the crowd and the difficulty of product definition.
3. Sales of models in price segments
In the range of 250,000-400,000 yuan, the iteration of high-end cars on mainstream cars is the most obvious, so the main medium-sized car of BBA, compact SUV and Tesla are the most popular options, mostly as the main family cars of high-end cities or the first purchase models of the new generation of consumer groups.
The range of 400,000-500,000 yuan is the largest price segment for high-end car market share, and BBA's medium and large cars and medium-sized SUVs occupy the top six sales. In the second echelon, the sales volume of NIO ES6 has been comparable to that of the second-tier luxury brand mid-size SUV.
The range of 500,000-700,000 yuan is an embarrassing area for the high-end car market to be "car-free". The hot models in this price segment are mostly personalized models of luxury brands, such as sports cars, coupes, coupe SUVs, cross-border models, etc., the overall volume is small, the demand is niche, and the position of the head model is not stable enough.
In the range of 70-1 million yuan, the hot models are BBA's flagship sedan and SUV. Toyota Alpha, as a luxury car-level MPV, also squeezed into the top four sales in this price segment, squeezing the luxury brand flagship sedan market with weak brand power.
In the high-end car market of more than 1 million yuan, brand power plays an absolute leading role, and the choice of models is highly concentrated, and there are no alternative products. Among them, the Mercedes-Benz S-Class has sold nearly 4,000 units per month without the superposition of Maybach and AMG models, which has been greatly abandoned from all luxury flagship cars.
Event: Expansion and breakout of traditional luxury brands
1. SAIC Audi product line is initially formed
Compared with faw-Volkswagen Audi, which adopts the original model and grasps the resources of imported cars at the same time, SAIC Audi's product idea is to localize the whole line. Following the launch of the extended A7L, the Q5 e-tron based on ID.6 and the Q6 based on Tuon have surfaced, and both are localized models developed for the needs of Chinese consumers.
However, from the pricing of A7L and Q5 e-tron, SAIC Audi did not lower its positioning because of the localization of products, but was highly in line with Audi's existing product lines. Under the premise of not expanding the new dealer network, SAIC Audi promotes its products through new retail models such as direct operation, agency system, and digital sales, and needs to invest more energy in the establishment of cognition, and the cultivation time will be longer.
2. NIO's sales volume is comparable to the sum of BBA New Energy
In January, the total sales volume of all new energy vehicles in BBA was basically equivalent to the sales volume of WEIlai, and pure electric vehicles accounted for only 30% of BBA's new energy vehicle sales. In addition to the BMW iX3, which has been exchanged for sales with official reduction + large terminal discounts, no pure electric vehicle in the BBA can be put on the table in terms of sales. In contrast, WEILAI's three pure electric SUVs of 400,000-600,000 yuan have objective and balanced sales, and to a certain extent, they have re-established some high-end standards for new cars.
Next, Mercedes-Benz's EQ series, BMW's i series and Audi's e-tron series will all launch new products this year. However, these models, which still have distinct brand traditional characteristics and can only iterate on consumers within the brand system, are not optimistic about the attractiveness of new consumer groups.
Trend: High-end car consumer perception is facing subversion
1. Low-priced luxury brands continue to shrink
In the price band that overlaps with mainstream cars (200,000-250,000 yuan), the brand influence of luxury cars has declined sharply, and the increasing pragmatism of consumers and the continuous innovation of independent brands and new power brands in recent years have accelerated the marginalization of luxury brands in the low-price market. Mainly manifested in the volume of entry-level cars and small-size SUVs of luxury brands, they are in a continuous decline.
This segment has a typical "European character". When the unique consumer cognition and product ecology of the Chinese market gradually dominate, the living space of entry-level cars and small-size SUVs of luxury brands will be further narrowed.
2. Luxury brands should choose between "warm boiled frogs" and "revolution"
BBA will continue to run products in parallel with native pure electricity this year, and the two will be disseminated in a unified naming system in marketing. When the high-end consumers' cognition of electric vehicles has been gradually controlled by Tesla and the new forces of Chinese car manufacturing, BBA is not willing to sacrifice the sales of existing fuel vehicles, but also needs to adhere to luxury barriers not to be destroyed by new forces, this contradictory mentality will make BBA constrained on the road of electrification, product definition will also be extremely entangled, and the natural consumer market will not give good feedback.
Especially when many new forces have in fact intercepted the potential consumer group of BBA in the next 3-5 years in advance, BBA's decline from product slowness to market share will become more and more difficult to hide with the gradual emergence of this interception effect.
3. Chinese brand high-end cars penetrate the mind
WEILAI ET7, Ideal L9, Xiaopeng G9, Tank 500, this is the next few months Chinese brands will launch high-end models in the range of 300,000-500,000 yuan. Among them, the public popularity, sociality of the topic, and the degree of going out of the circle of each model must exceed any luxury brand at the same price. New Chinese high-end brands, relying on strong consumer insights, human thinking and innovation in products at all costs, are constantly eroding the consumer base that was previously only a luxury brand.
When these new brands concentrate all their energy and resources on the new track to do a few models, the traditional luxury brands are still relying on brand awareness + cost control to make models, and the competitiveness is weakening little by little. The range of 300,000-500,000 yuan is also the market segment with the largest share of high-end cars and the largest number of products today. New high-end models of Chinese brands, if they can gain a firm foothold in this market and have enough viscosity to potential people, will establish a long-term and stable advantage because the products themselves have the ability to grow.