In recent days, international crude oil prices have soared, and domestic refined oil prices have ushered in 6 consecutive rises, returning to the "8 yuan era". The next round of refined oil price adjustment will be carried out at 24:00 on March 17, and it is expected to raise the oil price by about 1040 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.78-0.94 yuan / liter.
Analysts pointed out that according to the current situation, the next round of refined oil adjustment is basically a nail, it is likely to trigger the "ceiling price", And No. 95 gasoline will fully come to the "9 yuan" era.
According to the general household car fuel tank 50 liters to calculate, it costs about 40 yuan more to fill a tank of gasoline. This makes many fuel car owners feel a lot of pressure, "I feel that the Russian-Ukrainian war is the money deducted from my account"; "the oil price running into the 9 yuan era, I enter the era of running to work"; "92 full of debts, 95 full of bankruptcy, 98 full of three generations of repayment"...
The market has also appeared in the public opinion trend of new energy vehicles.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: "This year's domestic oil prices hit a new high in the past 10 years in March, and the high oil prices directly pushed up the daily commuting cost of fuel vehicles, and continued to expand the base plate level for the further promotion of new energy and even oil-electric hybrid technology." ”
Shen Hui, CEO of WM Motor, also posted on Weibo on the evening of March 9, predicting that No. 95 gasoline will exceed 9 yuan / liter, "according to the calculation of 50 liters of refueling, it will cost more than 450 yuan." He took this opportunity to recommend new energy vehicles: "According to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in 5 years, the electricity consumption of smart pure electric vehicles can save about 80,000 yuan compared with the fuel cost of fuel vehicles, which is almost equal to four LV or Hermès entry-level bags." ”
However, the Red Star Capital Bureau noted that although netizen comments were full of ridicule about oil prices, most of them said that they would not consider buying pure electric vehicles for the time being. Several consumers who held the currency and waited on the sidelines told the Red Star Capital Bureau that they fully considered the price, car cost, insurance cost, mileage anxiety, safety hazards, value preservation and other factors, "Comprehensive consideration of the oil car is cheaper, it is really not possible for me to choose hybrid." ”
Pure electric vehicles: high car costs and range anxiety
In the eyes of many consumers, only pure electric vehicles are truly new energy vehicles. According to Shen Hui's logic, when oil prices rise, pure electric vehicles should be selected to save fuel costs.
But oil prices will not remain high for long. The United Arab Emirates on Wednesday expressed its support for OPEC's increase in crude oil production, with New York crude futures plunging 11.46 percent and Brent crude futures plunging 12.09 percent.
In addition, the mainland refined oil products implement the "floor price" and "ceiling price" mechanism, when the international oil price is lower than 40 US dollars / barrel and higher than 130 US dollars / barrel, the domestic refined oil price is no longer adjusted.
However, the "Petroleum Management Measures" stipulate that when the price of crude oil in the international market is higher than 130 US dollars (inclusive) / barrel, the price of gasoline and diesel is not mentioned or reduced in principle. That is to say, even if the international oil price exceeds the "ceiling price", the domestic oil price may still be raised.
Some car owners told Red Star Capital Bureau that the cost of pure electric vehicles is higher than expected. "Generally, you need to replace a battery in four or five years, which is tens of thousands of yuan, which is more expensive than gasoline."
"With home charging pile charging, the cost of pure electric vehicles is only one-tenth of that of oil vehicles." If there is no home pile, the commercial pile electricity cost is close to 2 yuan / kWh, and the cost of the car will be quadrupled. ”
However, even if it is given away for free, a large number of car owners still do not install home piles.
On December 20 last year, Shen Hui publicly stated: "Weima delivered more than 40,000 vehicles, but nearly 20,000 charging piles distributed with the car could not be delivered." "Charging Alliance data shows that the household charging pile allocation rate is 60%-70%.
The public charging pile can not meet the charging demand, the current ratio of public charging piles and new energy vehicles as high as 1:6.8.
Behind the hot searches such as "new energy car owners get up at four o'clock in the morning to grab charging piles", it is the mileage anxiety of consumers about the shrinking endurance of electric vehicles in winter and the dissatisfaction with battery charging.
In fact, consumers buy pure electric vehicles, more because the price is cheaper and more convenient to use, and the impact of fuel charges can be said to be insignificant.
By the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 7.84 million, an increase of 59.25% year-on-year. Among them, the number of pure electric vehicles was 6.4 million, an increase of 151.61% year-on-year.
Pure electric vehicles (BEVs) have led to a dominant position in the new energy market due to the improvement of key technical indicators and performance of products and the decline in costs.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, from January to February this year, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the mainland reached 480,000 units, an increase of 131.8% year-on-year, and the penetration rate reached 14.4%. Sales of pure electric vehicles accounted for 76.92% of the sales of new energy vehicles.
However, due to the recent rise in raw material costs, chip shortages, subsidies and other factors, new energy vehicles have set off a wave of price increases. According to incomplete statistics from the Red Star Capital Bureau, since the end of last year, at least 16 new energy vehicle companies have announced price adjustments, covering the mainstream car purchase range below 100,000 yuan to more than 300,000 yuan, most of which are pure electric vehicles.
Models below 100,000 yuan were raised by a higher margin, with an average price increase of about 4,800 yuan. Pure electric cars with higher cost performance, such as Euler black cat, white cat, and Changan Ben National Edition low-configuration models, simply suspended orders.
Difficult delivery is also one of the reasons for consumer hesitation. Bydir, GAC E-An, Geely Geometry and other brands of popular models have a pick-up cycle of more than 3 months, the Xiaopeng P5 has a pick-up cycle of more than 4 months, and tesla Model Y and Model 3 models have a pick-up cycle of up to 12-16 weeks.
Plug-in hybrid models: the choice of compromise, is growing at a high speed
Since the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles is still widespread, plug-in hybrid models are considered to be a shortcut to achieve the transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.
The pure electric endurance of this model is enough to cope with daily commuting, refueling can also be competent for long-distance travel, and the policy can also enjoy similar license plate and restriction policies as pure electric models.
Ideal ONE using range extender electric technology, with a total of 144,770 units delivered since its launch. With this model, Ideal Auto ranks among the top three of the new car-making forces. The 2021Q4 financial report released a few days ago shows that the ideal quarterly revenue exceeded 10 billion for the first time.
BYD occupies nearly half of the hybrid market in 2021, and its DM-i hybrid series has sold 272,000 new vehicles. In January 2022, BYD DM-i models sold 46,000 units, up 760.6% year-on-year, and DM-i models sold 44,300 units in February.
The success of Ideal Auto and BYD has made many car companies focus on the market of plug-in and hybrid models.
Since last year, many independent brands have released plug-and-mix technology. Geely launched Thor Hybrid, Chang'an has IDD Hybrid, Great Wall has Lemon DHT Hybrid, Chery has Kunpeng DHT Hybrid, these technical routes, although the paths are not the same, but in the pure electric mileage, comprehensive fuel consumption and power performance are unique.
In 2021, the cumulative sales of plug-in and hybrid models reached 545,000 units, an increase of 171.1% year-on-year, becoming the segment with the highest growth rate. In January this year, a total of 85,000 plug-in models were sold, up 3.1% month-on-month and 198.3% year-on-year. Pure electric passenger cars fell 15% month-on-month and nearly 60% year-on-year.
In February, retail sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 66,000 units, up 367.2% year-on-year. BYD is even more exclusive to two-thirds of sales, surpassing SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM to win the second place in single-month sales, and for the first time standing in the championship position of the top three independent.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said, "To some extent, the shrinking of the mini-car market and the expansion of the market for plug-in and hybrid models are all positive manifestations of the structural adjustment of new energy vehicle products. ”
In 2021, the market share of mainland plug-in and hybrid models is only 18%, and this year, the federation will judge that the proportion of this market will increase to 25%.
However, in the ultimate goal of electrification development, car companies have a consensus of pure electric drive. With the decline in battery costs and the improvement of infrastructure construction, the endurance and cost advantages of hybrid models over pure electric vehicles may no longer exist, and the growth space of the industry is limited.
Explosive models are frequent, and it will take time to say goodbye to fuel vehicles
According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, in 2021, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in mainland China reached 20.146 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year; traditional fuel vehicles fell by 6% year-on-year.
In 2021, the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has formed a strong differentiation characteristic, and new energy vehicles have achieved partial substitution effects on the fuel vehicle market.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Association, pointed out: "The change in consumer demand has been proved through the market-oriented choice of users, and the pace of the automobile market's transformation to new energy has been accelerated. ”
According to the analysis of the Association, based on the good performance in 2021, the sales target of new energy passenger cars in 2022 will be adjusted from 4.8 million to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate will reach about 22%.
Major manufacturers have also actively participated in the electric vehicle market, and have released fully electrified timetables, but have not given up on fuel vehicles.
In 2021, the new generation of Audi A3 was officially listed and became the first choice for entry-level luxury cars; the civilian sports car Honda Civic ushered in the eleventh generation; GAC Toyota Sai Na became an MPV market hit; the tank 300 was difficult to find; and Great Wall Motors continued to launch the Great Wall Gun Pickup Truck.
In 2022, Mercedes-Benz announced the launch of 21 new cars in China, of which 8 are pure electric and plug-in hybrid models; BMW will bring a new generation of BMW 7 Series, equipped with a 3.0T inline six-cylinder engine M240i; Audi will also launch a variety of modifications + replacement fuel vehicles; tank 500 will also be launched in March.
Liu Hao, an analyst in the automotive industry, told Red Star Capital Bureau that the current ownership of new energy vehicles only accounts for 2.6% of the total number of cars. It is the trend of the times for new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles, but it is impossible to achieve it overnight in a short period of time. It is estimated that the number of fuel vehicles in China will peak in 2025, reaching 290 million units.
He pointed out that at present, the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles still needs to be improved, the core three-electric system also needs to be broken, and the second-hand car market and battery recycling system also need to be improved.
The "2021 Used Car Market Consumer Demand Insight Report" released a few days ago pointed out that the 3-year retention rate of mainstream traditional energy used cars remained at 50% to 70%. Compared with second-hand fuel vehicles, the overall 1-year retention rate of new energy used cars is 6.9%, and the 3-year gap is 5.3%.
Source: Red Star Capital Bureau