I think it is very interesting to make a visual chart of the new energy insurance data in January, and to think qualitatively about some problems from it. In January, 313,000 new energy vehicles were insured – an increase of 113% year-on-year and a decrease of 35% month-on-month. The number of pure electric vehicles insured was 241,000 units (y/y: 103%) and PHEV was 72,000 units (up 161% yoy).
My personal judgment has several dimensions -
1) The overall growth momentum of new energy vehicles is mainly from independent brands, but we compare the growth rate of pure electricity and plug-in hybrid (the latter remains in the range of 160%-180%), but also mainly from BYD and ideals, from 2022, the growth potential of this piece is very large, may exceed 100,000 units per month after March, it is expected to achieve a monthly threshold of 150,000 units by the end of this year, and it is also very possible to go to 1.5 million units overall.
2) Due to cost pressure, the Great Wall's black cat and white cat temporarily control the output, from the perspective of big logic, A00-class (less than 80,000) models, with the "running points or buy points" strategy changes, making the structure of the pure electric vehicle field to develop more reasonable to A or above. In January, the highest number of A-class new energy vehicles (including BEV and PHEV), increased by 188% year-on-year to 96,000 units. It was followed by A00 and B, up 64% and 60% year-on-year, respectively, to 79,000 units and 58,000 units.
3) Compared with the increment, A-class is also the largest incremental segment in the new energy vehicle market, and the growth trend of A00-class vehicles is also very strong, with B-class and C-class increments of about 22,000 vehicles. That is to say, stable in 250,000-300,000 yuan of pure electricity, in this market is stable, breakthrough but also to test the price increase, even if it is a rush in 2022, 2023 completely retreat, whether it can hold the sustained and stable growth, we prefer to see the stability of the structure.
Assuming a higher base penetration rate, the premise of the establishment is that consumers fully agree with new energy (PHEV + BEV), and under the limited market share of the joint venture brand, to further improve the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of independent brands, we must consider the profitability of the two types of independent brands. Because of the core logic, the process of substitution means a higher cost performance, or the consumer can see the core of the replacement driver.
Figure 1 Penetration of each train
Figure 2 Penetration rate of each brand
Part 1: January coverage data for major new energy models
1) Pure electric model
From the perspective of the amount of insurance on pure electric vehicles alone, the highest is 79,000 A00-class vehicles (+64% year-on-year), representing the Wuling Hongguang MINIEV. The number of A-class BEVs was 62,000 units (+150% yoy), representing a Qin PLUS. The B-class BEV was insured at 45,000 units (+58% yoy-y), representing the Model Y. Pure electric TOP10 models, in order, Hongguang MINIEV, Model Y, Dolphin, Han EV, QQ Ice Cream, Yuan Pro, Nezha V, Benben EV, Xiaopeng P7 and Euler Good Cat.
Figure 3 The risk situation of pure electric vehicle models in January
2) PHEV models and HEV models
I think in 2022, BYD DM-i itself wins the high cost performance after the powertrain upgrade, and then with the power of Geely and the Great Wall DHT models, and even Chery can replace the PHEV powertrain in the future, this big logic has many possibilities.
Figure 4 Ranking of PHEV models in January
In the Japanese HEV or around the logic of fuel saving, the strategy of autonomous PHEV is actually similar to the way HEV is played, from the perspective of independent brands, the increase is a longer life cycle, so this trend is the replacement of the powertrain of a longer cycle.
Figure 5 HeV model ranking in January
That is to say, around the city's tough battle, PHEV's playing style can make independent brand cars gain a foothold in second-tier cities.
Figure 6 The transition to HEVs and PHEV in urban fuel vehicles is stable and continuous
In terms of the total number of new energy vehicles, first-tier cities (50,000 vehicles) are no longer the areas with the highest amount of new energy vehicles, but are replaced by second-tier cities (77,600 units), 1.5-tier cities (76,900 units), and third-tier cities (52,000 vehicles). Of course, my understanding is that the penetration of BEV in third-tier cities mainly relies on low-cost cars, and the "protagonist" in 2022 is still a new energy vehicle with higher prices.
Figure 7 Distribution of sales in major pure electric vehicle cities
That is to say, removing the high growth of low-priceD A00 and A0, with the main increments - A-class and B-class cars, at similar prices in different provinces of PK, PHEV will be relatively fast and BEV flattening, then the "8:2 relationship between BEV and PHEV" with Chinese characteristics may evolve into a "6:4 relationship" in the future.
Figure 8 Comparison of new energy vehicle types in major provinces/municipalities
Part 2: Analysis from price and rating
My conclusion is mainly based on different levels of OK, before the COMPLETE BEV crushed PHEV, mainly concentrated in the A00 sedan, A0 sedan and small SUV, the increase of this piece is the peak. In other ring markets, BEV is not seen to be dominant (except for the Model Y market).
Figure 9 Grading comparison of PHEV, HEV and BEV in January
If we add a price dimension, this logic may be clearer, the market where THE PHEV is located is mainly in the two large blocks of 10-150,000 and 20-350,000, and it is okay to eat the market growth rate of fuel vehicles step by step. As for the 100,000 yuan model, in the case of a 10-30% increase in battery costs plus a subsidy decline of 30%, the difficulty of this piece will be very large.
Figure 10 The replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy from January
Therefore, with the intensive development in 2021, by the second half of 2022, the PHEV model update products of each company will accelerate to the market, and this year's theme is to promote the brand image of PHEV and pull up bev, from a simple volume (relying on micro-car running points) to a more qualitative growth.
Figure 11 Each brand's leading pure electric model, one-sided PHEV is not much
brief summary:
This trend we can verify in May-June, the rise in battery costs, in fact, compressed the living space of 50,000-80,000 electric vehicles, or everyone to do 50,000 ultra-low-end pure electric models, or to do more than 150,000 pure electric vehicles, and the high-quality development of PHEV has become a must for all independent brands.
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
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