The head of the independent car brand "disrupted" the hybrid market

A "hybrid" battle is beginning.

Recently, a number of media reported that the first model of BYD's warship series, the Destroyer 05, is suspected to be officially listed in the first quarter. In terms of power, the new car will be equipped with BYD's DM-i super hybrid system. At the same time, Chery Automobile's Xingtu brand has also been reported recently that it is expected to launch its first model equipped with "Star Core Power ET-i Full Engine Super Hybrid" plug-in hybrid technology this month - Chasing Wind ET-i, which will be equipped with a plug-in hybrid system composed of 1.5T engine + electric motor. On February 17, Changan Automobile (000625. SZ) also revealed in response to investors' questions that the first model equipped with the Changan Blue Whale iDD hybrid system, UNI-K iDD, has opened pre-sale and will be listed in the near future. This indicates that the Blue Whale iDD hybrid system built by Changan Automobile is about to enter the actual combat stage. In addition, the reporter of China Business Daily learned that Great Wall Motor (601633. SH)) will also launch a number of hybrid models in 2022.

These are just the epitome of the hybrid market that independent brands have laid out in recent times. In fact, since the beginning of 2021, the domestic head independent car brands have begun to grab the beach hybrid track, and the keywords of "independent brand" and "hybrid" appear more and more frequently in the public's vision. At present, mainstream autonomous car companies including Great Wall Motor, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile and other mainstream autonomous car companies have successively launched a new generation of hybrid systems. According to statistics, in 2022, there will be a total of about 20 hybrid models listed on the market for independent car brands.

"From the perspective of global development trends, fuel vehicles will face the situation of being gradually eliminated, pure electric models in new energy vehicles currently have problems such as insufficient mileage, charging and refueling problems, and high car purchase costs, while hybrid models as a product for transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles have low car costs and no mileage anxiety, which is in line with the needs of consumers at this stage." It is precisely because of its market potential that independent car companies do not want to give up this cake. An insider of an autonomous car company told reporters.

Yan Jinghui, a senior automotive analyst, analyzed to reporters that the frequent actions of autonomous car companies in the hybrid market are mainly "affected" by the following three major factors: First, from the supply side, hybrid models can play a great role in "double integration", carbon emissions, and carbon neutrality. Second, from the demand side, the current market demand for hybrid models is relatively large, and the demand for hybrid models is gradually increasing among the high-end groups that have been cultivated by Japanese brands. Third, through the accumulation of recent years, independent car companies have the confidence to compete with traditional hybrid track players in hybrid technology.

Grab a mixed market cake

Hybrid models are being favored by more and more domestic consumers.

On February 14, the latest sales data disclosed by the Association showed that in January 2022, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 333,000 units, an increase of 130.4% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid sales were 79,000 units, an increase of 202.1% year-on-year. According to the statistics of the Association, plug-in hybrids accounted for 15.9% of the overall share of new energy vehicles in December 2020, and by November 2021, the proportion of plug-in hybrid models sales has increased to 19.9%. The data disclosed by the Association also shows that the wholesale volume of ordinary hybrid passenger cars in China reached 67,000 units in January 2022, a sharp increase of 58% compared with the same period last year. It can be seen that hybrid models have gradually become a new hot spot in the car market.

According to the industry's classification of hybrid models, hybrid currently mainly includes plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and oil-electric hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid models can enjoy both new energy financial subsidies and new energy credits, while oil-electric hybrid models are regarded as low-energy vehicles, are hybrid vehicles in the narrow sense, do not belong to the national demarcation of new energy vehicles, but are included in the "double integral" accounting. According to the Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits revised by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in June 2020, enterprises that produce/supply low fuel consumption models can give accounting preferential treatment when calculating the standard value of new energy vehicle points.

It is precisely for the above reasons that the hybrid market is being favored by more and more independent car companies.

The reporter noted that a number of mainstream autonomous car companies have launched a new generation of hybrid systems. For example, BYD released the DM-i super hybrid system in January 2021, and at the same time listed Qin PLUSDM-i, Song PLUSDM-i, Tang DM-i and other models in 2021, preemptively occupying a place in the hybrid market. Great Wall Motor released a new lemon DHT system known as "China's first independent brand dual-motor HEV architecture", and its WEY brand will also take the lead in achieving full hybridization. Geely Automobile and Changan Automobile released the new Raytheon Hybrid System and the Blue Whale iDD Hybrid System respectively. It is reported that in January this year, the first model equipped with Changan Automobile's Blue Whale iDD hybrid system, UNI-K iDD, has opened pre-sale. Chery Automobile launched the Chery Kunpeng DHT system. GAC introduced the Toyota THS hybrid system in 2021 to create its own plug-in and mixing platform. According to the planning of the above-mentioned autonomous car companies, there will be about 20 hybrid models on the market in 2022.

"Hybrid models are characterized by a small increase in costs, for example, toyota's hybrid models in the domestic market price is basically not much different from the price of fuel vehicles, but its fuel consumption has dropped particularly significantly." A taxi driver in Shanghai who drives Toyota Leiling once told me that if a taxi runs in Shanghai, in the case of turning on the air conditioner in the summer, the fuel consumption for 100 kilometers is only about 4 liters, and the fuel consumption is very low. The effect of reducing fuel consumption is very good, and the price is not high, so hybrid models are a very effective way to reduce energy and emissions and energy consumption at this stage. Compared with electric vehicles, the technology of electric vehicles is not mature, the price is more expensive, and the life of the battery is limited, compared with hybrid models have certain advantages. Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry and a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, told reporters.

Zhang Xiang believes that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be completely cancelled in 2023, and the opportunity for a hybrid market will come. "Because after the subsidy decline and cancellation, electric vehicles and hybrids will be on the same starting line." After more than 20 years of development, hybrid technology has been very mature, on the same starting line, hybrid vehicles have obvious advantages over electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles in the electric vehicle category need to rely on charging infrastructure construction. Therefore, at present, mainstream independent car companies such as Geely and Great Wall are laying out and developing hybrid systems and launching hybrid models. ”

Yan Jinghui believes that in addition to the factors of supply and demand, the maturity of hybrid technology is also one of the logics of independent car companies to lay out the hybrid market. "Through the accumulation of recent years, independent car companies have the confidence to compete with traditional hybrid track players in hybrid technology." In recent years, domestic enterprises have achieved a series of technological breakthroughs in hybrid system architecture and hybrid special engine (DHE).

According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", it is expected that in 2035, the annual sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will account for 50% each. In the current domestic environment, hybrid products are suitable for more square view applications, high power reliability under extreme conditions, and no mileage and charging anxiety. Therefore, hybrids will be one of the most effective carbon reduction technologies for the next 15 years. Li Yong, general manager of GAC Trumpchi Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., previously told reporters that according to the overall deployment of gac group's "double carbon" goal - "green net plan", gac trumpchi will accelerate the landing of hybrid products in 2022 and comprehensively promote hybridization.

Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holding Group, also said in internal sharing and exchanges that Geely should actively participate in the competition of the smart pure electric vehicle market from two aspects. On the one hand, it is the main energy-saving car, mainly hybrid, and will be the mainstream model for a period of time; on the other hand, it is mainly pure electric vehicle models, facing the future market competition. It can be seen that independent car companies have strong faith and confidence in the hybrid market.

Meet the narrow road of "two fields"?

As we all know, in the field of hybridization, Toyota, Honda and other companies are the "forerunners", and Toyota Motor is in a leading position in the world in hybrid technology. From a domestic point of view, for a long time, Toyota and Honda of Japanese cars have occupied a large share of the hybrid market, while independent brands have a weak presence in this field. The independent car companies try to grab the cake in the hybrid market, how to get out of their own hybrid route, form their own competitiveness, has become a topic of concern in the industry.

As we all know, Toyota's hybrid technology has a 25-year history of development, and its hybrid core technology - battery, motor, electronic control, to achieve four generations of change. Up to now, Toyota's global sales of gasoline-electric hybrid models have exceeded 19 million units, and its sales of gasoline-electric hybrid models in the Chinese market have also exceeded the mark of 1.5 million units. There are comments in the industry that "there are only two kinds of hybrids in the world, one is Toyota hybrid, and the other is other hybrids", which is enough to explain Toyota's position in the hybrid market.

As another representative of the Japanese brand, Honda Hybrid Technology has also achieved remarkable results. In the Chinese market, Honda launched the first hybrid model GAC Honda Accord Hybrid as early as 2016, and several main models of GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda have launched plug-in hybrid versions. As of 2020, Honda's cumulative sales of hybrid products in the Chinese market have exceeded 447,000 units.

Nissan Motor has developed e-Power hybrid technology as a development direction. e-Power is a range-like hybrid technology that charges the battery through a gasoline engine. The Nissan e-Power is a completely new architectural idea for hybrid technology.

At present, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese brands already have relatively mature technology in the field of hybridization, can independent car companies find their own development lifeline through the "blockade"?

For this problem, Zhang Xiang said: "From the perspective of the industry, the threshold of hybrid technology is not low, not that you can enter if you want to enter, and some blockades of toyota and other forerunner patents, the hybrid systems and products launched by independent car companies, in the end, how the market reaction will be in the future, it is not easy to say." Because if the hybrid product is not done well, its fuel consumption is higher than that of the traditional fuel vehicle. ”

Many interviewees in the industry, including Yan Jinghui, believe that independent car companies are likely to open up the hybrid market situation with higher cost performance. "The hybrid products of independent car companies should be able to form a certain degree of competitiveness in terms of price." In addition, in fact, the starting point of the current independent car companies to develop hybrid technology is not the same as in the past, and it is no longer blindly catching up and copying. Autonomous car companies on the road of hybrid is equipped with the current intelligent network and other advanced technology this premise and development basis, independent car companies in the hybrid market can build a multi-point, multi-dimensional competitive ecology. ”

Zheshang Securities analyst Wang Jing believes that in 2021, BYD and Great Wall will launch a new generation of hybrid technology DM-i and Lemon DHT respectively, both of which adopt a scheme based on a dual-motor hybrid configuration and a highly integrated hybrid assembly, which can take into account both HEV and PHEV types; Geely Automobile will also launch a new generation of hybrid technology GHS2.0 in the second half of 2021 and release related models. It can be seen that the new generation of hybrid technology launched by the independent brand is equipped with a high-performance hybrid special engine, with high system integration, simple structure and low cost, and has basically reached the same level as Japanese cars in terms of comprehensive performance performance.

"From the current point of view, compared with the previous generation of domestic hybrid models, the new generation of products has overcome the fuel consumption problem and driving smoothness problem under the state of power loss, and the difference between the price and the same level of fuel vehicles has dropped from the initial 60,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan, whether it is the purchase cost or the later use cost has greater advantages and attractiveness." Guotai Junan Securities also analyzed it in the research report.