After the Spring Festival holiday, while immersed in the tense and exciting atmosphere of the Winter Olympics, we discussed in the office, which car company will preemptively exert its strength in the next year?
As a result, we did not wait too long, on the day of the Lantern Festival, Weilai preemptively spoiled their new model , the ES7.
On February 15, NIO announced that the previously rumored internal code name Gemini (Gemini) product was officially named ES7 and will be released in mid-April this year, and this medium and large five-seat SUV will be between ES6 and ES8. Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO, said, "The ES7 and the upcoming X5 L will be the most anticipated medium- and large-sized SUVs in 2022."
Less than two months after nio DAY in mid-December, the ET5 orders in the circle of friends have not disappeared because they are "only visible in 3 months", and Weilai's new model has come.
The model was not released at NIO DAY at the end of the year as is customary, and the release time was advanced by half a year, set for mid-April near the Beijing Auto Show, and it is likely to be delivered within this year. That is to say, this year's Weilai is likely to deliver ET7, ET5, and the three new models of ES7 just announced.
So much so that my first reaction when I heard the news was: Is Weilai a little anxious?
The same platform, three new cars a year
In fact, there are traces of spoilers for ES7.
As early as half a year ago, at the 2021Q2 earnings call, Li Bin had predicted that three models with a new platform would be delivered in 2022, in addition to the ET7 and ET5 that had already been unveiled, the third model was the ES7.
Previously, netizens also released spy photos of ES7: similar to the shape of ES6, the roof "watchtower" type overhead lidar and high camera, the charging port is adjusted to the right rear. At the same time, Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of WEIO, also revealed that ES7 adopts a new NT2.0 platform, and the level of intelligence is consistent with ET5 and ET7. To a certain extent, this makes up for the "short board" of WEILAI's SUV in terms of intelligence.
Despite the previous trailer, the official announcement of ES7 is still a bit unexpected.
ET7, ET5, ES7, three models equipped with a new platform delivered in the same year, which is not only an exception for the new forces accustomed to a new car every year, but also for traditional car companies with deep roots, it is not a routine operation. For a new technology platform, releasing a flagship model first, waiting for market awareness to mature, and then decentralizing technology and launching other models on the same platform is obviously a more conventional and safer approach in the automotive field.
So why is Weilai so anxious about spoilers ES7?
On the one hand, at this stage, Weilai may be in urgent need of a dose of strong medicine.
Just two days before the release of ES7, the new energy sales list in January was freshly released, and the sales volume of Weilai, as one of the leaders of the new forces, was surpassed by Nezha, ranking fourth among the new forces with a delivery volume of 9652 units, an increase of 33.6% year-on-year.
In fact, since the second half of last year, the position of "Wei Xiaoli" on the sales list has begun to change. In addition to a series of external factors such as production line transformation, chip shortage, and high-end product positioning, which affect production volume, the lack of new model delivery has also more or less affected Weilai's sales. From the delivery of EC6 in September 2020 to the upcoming delivery of ET7 this year, NIO has experienced a one-and-a-half-year vacuum in the delivery of new models. In the past year and a half, whether it is the opponents of the new forces or the traditional car companies that are eager to electrify and transform, they are all making their own efforts.
At the same time, compared with the ideal of dual listing in the US stocks and Hong Kong stocks and Xiaopeng, the recent stock price of Weilai, which is fighting alone in the US stock market, is not optimistic.
Because of this, the launch of new models, delivery as soon as possible to create a more comprehensive product matrix, and seize the increasingly hot electric vehicle segment have undoubtedly become the urgently needed medicines for Weilai.
On the other hand, it may be driven by capacity expansion.
Previously, Jianghuai Automobile has issued a tender announcement on the AGV transformation of the final chassis of the Gemini model production line flexible technical transformation project, with an annual output of 60,000 vehicles and an average monthly output of 5,000 vehicles, which is nearly double the sales volume of the current ES6/EC6. The NeoPark Xinqiao Intelligent Electric Vehicle Industrial Park in Hefei will also start mass production in the third quarter of this year, which will undoubtedly increase the boost for the ET5 that plans to start delivery after the third quarter, and the ES7 that will be delivered later.
While capacity is increased, the launch of multiple products under the same platform can further control costs. From the perspective of NIO's product line, the new platform to create NIO ET7 and other models, and the current model parts on sale will increase the pressure of supply chain management, NIO needs the new platform under the model to reduce the pressure of supply chain management, especially the cost of smart hardware such as lidar and Orin chips.
Under the dual consideration of market and production capacity, the early spoiler of ES7 seems reasonable.
Multiple generations of the same church, is it a "strong medicine" or "internal friction"?
"Market segmentation", Qin Lihong explained the launch of the ES7 medium and large SUV.
Indeed, the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles has gradually refined the needs of users. Because of this, WEILAI has launched the ES7 in between in the case of already having two SUV models, ES6 and ES8, and has targeted the BMW X5 L, a popular luxury fuel vehicle product, to make up for the "short board" of its own SUV on sale with a new generation of technology platform and a higher level of intelligence.
Regarding Qin Lihong's "contest between ES7 and BMW X5 L", we will not predict the outcome for the time being, but it can be predicted that the launch of ES7 has made the product matrix of Wei's home become particularly "dense", more or less affecting its own products.
As a product of the new generation technology platform NT2.0, ES7 competes with ET7 and ET5, and the three have almost no time to open up market tests. As an SUV model, the emergence of the ES7 has also put the ES8 using the previous generation platform in a more embarrassing position: in the face of a new technology platform, a higher level of intelligence, and a new model with a lower price point, how many potential ES8 users will not "change their minds"?
"Multi-generational co-birth", for this situation that the traditional automobile era strives to avoid, how does WEILAI deal with it in order to avoid the internal roll between its own products?
In addition, the supply chain is also the key to restricting products.
In the past 2021, almost no car company dares to say that it does not lack "core". The shortage of chips and batteries has limited the sales of many car companies, and Weilai is no exception. Last year, Weilai was forced to shrink its sales in a single month due to the shortage of ESP chips and the transformation of production lines. After entering 2022, this supply chain shortage shows no signs of improving, and it is accompanied by more serious raw material price increases.
"In the case of limited supply chain and production capacity, the launch of new models means reducing the production of existing models", Musk once answered why Tesla does not launch a $25,000 model at this stage, and the same applies to Weilai.
The optimization of the production line and the production of NeoPark certainly give Weilai the confidence to increase production capacity, but in the case of tight supply chain, how to balance the three new models delivered this year is also a problem it has to consider. As Qin Lihong himself said, "the supply chain is the ceiling of production capacity.".
At last
For today's Weilai, it is undoubtedly at a crossroads.
With the increase in the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles, whether it is Weilai or other new force car companies, it is destined to be unable to continue the model of single-point breakthrough, how to create their own product matrix and systematic ability is the key to the next step to win a larger market.
So, do you think ES7 will be a "shot in the arm" for Weilai?