Automobile market survey: the volume and price of new energy vehicles have risen together, and more than 20 new sales people have sold in the first month of work

On February 11, a gentle drizzle made Shanghai look even more gloomy. A BYD 4S store in Shanghai is in full swing, close to lunchtime, there are still many groups of customers in the store watching the car.

"There are about 20 groups of customers coming to see the car every day on weekdays, and there are usually more than 50 groups on weekends." Su Qian, a salesperson, told reporters that the 4S store has several new sales people, and can successfully sell more than 20 new cars in the first month of employment.

Not only BYD, a Tesla sales reporter told reporters that from November 2020, he felt more like a "cashier" than a salesman, and the content of the work was basically to open a bill to collect money.

To a certain extent, they are riding on the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market. According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in mainland China reached 2.989 million units in 2021, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and Shanghai is one of the five most accepted markets for new energy vehicles in the country. Shanghai new car insurance data shows that in 2021, among the top fifteen models sold in Shanghai, new energy vehicles occupy seven seats, of which Tesla Model Y and Model 3 won the top two, with total sales of more than 20,000 vehicles; bydir Han EV's cumulative sales exceeded 7800 vehicles, ranking eleventh, far leaving Volkswagen Passat and Toyota Camry with similar prices behind.

Waiting for a car for months has become the norm

"I booked last November and haven't mentioned a car yet." When the reporter communicated with a number of users who purchased new energy vehicles, waiting for the car became the most commonly mentioned word in their mouths.

In the process of visiting the new energy vehicle 4S store, the reporter found that the product pick-up cycle of many brands has exceeded 10 weeks, and some popular models even need to wait for 4 to 5 months to pick up the car.

A Xiaopeng Automobile sales staff told reporters that at present, Xiaopeng Automobile basically needs to wait for the car, according to the different models and configurations of different waiting times, generally about 10 weeks, some models of the car cycle has reached 12 weeks. "Of course, there are also good luck, occasionally for various reasons, there will be one or two existing cars, that is, first come, first served, basically second clear." Said the salesperson.

The sales of NIO said that if the selected configuration scheme can match the vehicle in production, the cycle of picking up the car will be faster; if the configuration scheme cannot match the vehicle in production, the waiting time will be slightly longer. Tesla's official website shows that the current Model Y and Model 3 models have a lifting cycle of up to 12 to 16 weeks. In addition, the pick-up cycle of popular models of GAC Aean, Great Wall Euler, Geely Geometry and other brands is more than 3 months.

For the reason that the delivery cycle is as long as several months, a number of sales told reporters that the current supply of chips and batteries is still tight, and manufacturers are also "waiting for rice to go to the pot". At the end of 2021, due to the shortage of chips, Ideal Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, etc. have released plans for lack of delivery.

In the fourth quarter of 2021 earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that 2021 has encountered a chip shortage crisis, he expects that 2022 will still be limited by chip shortages, and the lack of cores may not ease until 2023.

The tight supply of power batteries has also increased the pick-up time. "The lack of chips can be simplified, can also be installed, at least there is a relatively complete product can be delivered, but what about the lack of batteries?" Is it possible to sell an electric car that cannot be moved? An industry insider told reporters.

2021 Ford CEO Jim Farley said in an interview with the media that Ford electric vehicles are more battery-deficient than chips. Xiaopeng Motors also issued a statement at the end of 2021 that some owners could not pick up the car on time due to the tight battery supply of some models. SNE Research predicts that by 2023, the global demand for power batteries for electric vehicles will reach 406GWh, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335GWh, a gap of about 18%. By 2025, this gap will widen to about 40%. GF Securities Research Report shows that in the next few years, the global power battery is in a tight supply state, that is, considering the dynamic production capacity of the annual expansion, the global power battery will still have a gap of 30GWh in 2022.

"Last year, Qin PLUS DM-i took 6 months to pick up the car, mainly the chip shortage and insufficient production capacity, the middle was affected by the epidemic in Xi'an, some car owners may have a longer car pick-up cycle, and now the production capacity has increased, and the current car lifting cycle is about 4 months." Su Qian believes that the surge in orders and insufficient capacity preparation have caught BYD, which has the production capacity of batteries and some chips, caught off guard, and with the increase of production capacity, the problem of long car pick-up cycle is being alleviated.

The price increase has not affected sales

"We started raising prices on February 1, but we haven't seen the impact of price changes on sales yet." Su Qian told reporters.

In the past two months, a number of car companies have announced price adjustments for their new energy vehicle products, but the price increase has not had a decisive impact on consumers' purchase of new energy vehicles.

On January 1 this year, Nezha Automobile raised the price of its models, and the prices of Nezha V, Nezha U Pro and other models ranged from about 2,000 to 5,000 yuan; on January 11, the price of all Xiaopeng models increased the price after subsidies, with an average increase of about 5,000 yuan; on January 21, BYD announced that it would adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty Network and Ocean Network, with an increase of 1,000 to 7,000 yuan. Weilai and other car companies have not raised the guidance price, but related sales said that the state subsidy in 2022 is further reduced compared with 2021, and from the perspective of user car purchase, the cost of car purchase in 2022 will definitely increase compared with 2021.

The sales of a number of car companies told reporters that the reason for the increase in product prices is mainly due to the decline of new energy subsidies in 2022, followed by the rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles.

On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" and the subsidy plan, which clarified that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. According to the regulations, pure electric vehicles with an endurance of more than 300 kilometers and a guidance price of less than 300,000 yuan can enjoy subsidies. Among them, the mileage subsidy standard for models with a range of 300km and 400km is 0.91 million, and the mileage subsidy standard for models with a range of more than 400km is 12,600.

In addition, the continuous rise in raw material costs has also become an incentive for car companies to raise the price of products.

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, compared with the beginning of 2020, the average price of cathode materials for mainstream ternary lithium batteries rose by 108.9% in 2021, and the cathode materials for lithium iron phosphate batteries rose by an average of 182.5%. It is reported that the price of lithium carbonate has risen from 50,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2021 to more than 300,000 yuan per ton.

On February 11, Shanghai Steel Federation released data showing that some lithium battery material quotations rose again, the price of lithium metal rose by 60,000 yuan / ton, the highest reported at 2.1 million yuan / ton, and the price of domestic metal lithium has risen by more than 318% since the beginning of 2021. The price of lithium carbonate has stood on the mark of 400,000 yuan. In terms of anode materials, the price of coated bitumen increased by 0.05 million yuan / ton, and the price of petroleum coke increased by 0.03 million yuan / ton; in terms of cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.1 million yuan / ton.

Recently, some media reported that overseas power battery companies such as LG New Energy, SK on and Samsung SDI have raised the price of finished power batteries, and domestic Ningde times, BYD, etc. have also been rumored to have raised prices.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that with the implementation of the decline of new energy subsidies, the prices of some models have been fine-tuned, and the consumer mentality has also changed, and the demand for new energy vehicles will be slightly affected. However, new energy vehicles continue to be hot, and there is currently a large backlog of undelivered orders in the early stage, so most of the sales of new energy models will not be significantly affected by the decline.

Although subsidies have declined and raw material prices have led to an increase in the cost of purchasing new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles can still enjoy preferential policies in terms of purchase taxes and licenses. Taking the Shanghai area as an example, at present, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles can still apply for new energy vehicle quotas for free. For comparison, in January 2022, the minimum transaction of the non-commercial bus quota auction in Shanghai has risen to 93,100 yuan.