Focus on these four most explosive sectors tomorrow! First, the popular leader 1, infrastructure: Longyi Poly United; Longer Zhejiang Construction; Longsan Chongqing Construction; other popularity: Huitongji

Focus on these four most explosive sectors tomorrow!

First, the popular leader

1. Infrastructure: Longyi Poly United, Longer Zhejiang Construction, Longsan Chongqing Construction Engineering, other popularity: Huitong Group, Exploration and Construction Shares, China Communications Construction, Hualan Group.

2. Coal: Longyi China Shenhua, Longer Shaanxi Coal Industry, Longsan Jizhong Energy, other popularity: Ping coal shares, Yanzhou Coal, Orchid Kechuang, Meijin Energy.

3. Iron and steel: Longyi Baosteel shares; Longer Baotou Steel shares; Longsan Shougang shares; other popularity: TISCO stainless steel, Valin Steel, Masteel shares, Fangda Special Steel.

4. Pork: Longyi Makihara shares; Longer Wenshi shares; Longsan New Hope; other popularity: Zhengbang Technology, Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Tiankang Biological.

Plate logic analysis

1. Infrastructure

The National Development and Reform Commission proposed that this year to accelerate the promotion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline of the 102 major projects, focusing on the investment of new infrastructure, new urbanization and other major projects, it is clear that the most certain direction in the first quarter, is the field related to infrastructure, of course, the scope is also wider, not only the construction enterprises in the Chinese character, there are also some new infrastructure outside the traditional infrastructure, which is the direction of great opportunities in the context of carbon neutrality, although the current proportion is relatively small, but the growth space is clear, It is expected that the average annual scale of new investment will reach 4-5 trillion yuan, and the new infrastructure will drive about 0.4-0.7 percentage points to the growth rate of infrastructure in 2020, accounting for 15% of infrastructure investment.

In addition, according to institutional data, as of February 8, the new special bond issuance during the year was 511.4 billion yuan, completing the early release of 35% of the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan, which means that this year's new special bond issuance has completed 35% of the advance approval quota, higher than the same period last year, at the same time, this year's special bond issuance continues to be pre-emptive, mainly the policy force, moderately the guidance of the main tone, then under the premise of economic growth pressure in the first quarter, the demand for infrastructure investment is expected to recover.

2. Coal

The eye-catching market of coal before and after the Spring Festival is mainly affected by three factors, one is the recovery of market sentiment at the end of last year's policy to hit coal prices, the second is that in January of this year, Indonesia adopted a one-month suspension of coal export policy because of concerns about the lack of electricity in the country, and Indonesia happens to be China's largest coal importer, then this news comes out, it affects the market's concern about tight supply, and the third is that under the general policy of steady growth, new stimulus policies have been introduced continuously. The previous strict control of energy consumption began to compromise to a certain extent, and the demand for resumption of work after the holiday increased, especially in the related sectors of the infrastructure industry chain, resulting in the market's expectation of valuation repair.

In addition, in fact, the current coal supply and demand relationship is not as prominent as the third quarter of last year, since last November the state cracked down on coal price speculation to ensure coal supply, coal supply and demand tension has been alleviated, and according to the National Development and Reform Commission, since February 3 this year, coal production in various regions of the country has rebounded rapidly, and has basically returned to the pre-holiday level. The coal storage of the national unified power plant is still maintained at more than 165 million tons, an increase of more than 40 million tons over the same period last year, so now with the accelerated recovery of coal production, the demand for coal in the superimposed heating season has declined, and the supply guarantee capacity of coal will be further enhanced, which is expected to boost market confidence.

3. Steel

Benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure investment, the demand side of the steel industry has also begun to improve, and the downstream real estate with the continuous improvement of policies, the fundamentals have been in the bottoming stage, in addition, with the 14th Five-Year Plan key projects have been launched, major projects in the field of transportation and water conservancy have accelerated construction, this year's new local government special bonds have begun to accelerate the issuance, investment will continue to grow steadily, these will have a significant supporting effect on the demand for steel, so it is expected that the steel industry is expected to usher in marginal improvement in 2022.

From the performance level, the steel industry in 2021 ushered in a profit year, the data show that as of February 7, a total of 29 steel listed companies in the two cities issued 2021 performance forecasts, of which only 1 company is expected to lose, and from the perspective of changes in net profit, only 3 companies are expected to have a year-on-year decline in net profit, the rest of the company is expected to have different degrees of net profit growth, in addition, due to the overall prosperity of the industry, there are already 19 companies expected to have a net profit of more than 1 billion yuan last year, From a fundamental point of view, the profitability of steel companies in 2021 increased significantly, mainly due to the sharp increase in the average price of steel, and the increase in profitability of tons of steel led to a significant increase in overall profits.

4. Pork

This year's peak season is not booming, New Year's Day Spring Festival is the traditional pork consumption season, but the market pig price continues to decline, the price of many places fell below 8 yuan per kilogram, the current price has fallen below the breeding cost line, if the current pig price market sells, a pig weighing about 200 to 250 pounds of standard pigs, pig farmers to lose about 200 yuan, the reason for this, mainly before the Spring Festival concentrated out of the barn, resulting in loose pig market supply, coupled with the overall weakness of pork consumption, suppressing the rebound in pig prices.

Now due to the pig food price into the excessive decline in the secondary warning range, recently the relevant departments said that they will start the pork storage work as appropriate, although the pork storage for spot price improvement is limited, but for the current supply pressure is not reduced, the demand support is insufficient, the market pressure obviously plays a role in the bottom, it is expected that after March, with the pig production capacity to go, pork has gradually stabilized the fundamental support, although the overall supply is sufficient, the rise space is limited, but the pig price is currently at the bottom low, the recovery can be expected.

Third, the future market outlook:

From a technical point of view, after the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher in the morning, the intraday wide range shock, the tail plate began to pull back, closing out the shrunken doji star with a long lower shadow line, continuing to be hindered at 3500 points, from the BOLL point of view, which has a certain pressure on the rail, and the ChiNext index today opened high and low, there was a sharp adjustment, the middle line of the long lower shadow line was closed out, the K line formed a three-needle bottom, it is expected that the short-term index is expected to continue to rebound higher, challenging the pressure above 3500 points, and the ChiNext index first sees whether it can recover the 5-day line.

Finally, I wish the likes to the followers of health, abundance, and stocks all the way red!