Introduction: For GAC Group, the "opening red" of production and sales in January should not be just "drinking and quenching thirst".
After the close of trading on February 8, GAC Group released its January production and sales report. From the overall performance point of view, the year-on-year increase in production and sales of 13.96% and 9.16% is definitely a "good start".
This not only brought a strong pull effect to the A+H shares of GAC Group in the following trading day, stopped falling and rebounded, but also gave a number of securities companies "buy" and "highly recommended" ratings, showing great optimism about GAC Group.
On February 9, GAC Group's A shares closed at 14.04 yuan per share, an increase of 3.92%, and H shares closed at 8.34 yuan per share, up 6.11%.
So, the question is, if we broaden our perspective a little, what happened when gagac group's stock price fell for several days? Why is it said that this "opening red" may have other hidden worries for GAC Group?
1) GAC's sales look at the Japanese system, and the Japanese performance looks at Guangfeng?
With the strong recovery of the group's two major Japanese joint ventures in the second half of 2021, GAC Group led Changan Automobile in the sales performance of the last full quarter.
Last year, the two major Japanese joint ventures of GAC Honda and GAC Toyota accounted for 75% of the total sales of GAC Group, and in the latest issue of the 2022 production and sales express, this proportion has increased to 76.06%. The performance of Japanese brands greatly determines the sales strength and performance of GAC Group, but this may not be something that Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, is particularly happy to see.
Another trend that has continued from last year to the present is the strong recovery of GAC Toyota.
In the latest issue of the production and sales express, GAC Toyota's monthly sales increased by 11.25% and 1.4% year-on-year, and its monthly sales reached 99,900 units, which not only approached the 100,000-vehicle sales mark in the first month of the year, but also made GAC Toyota an important role in the sales of GAC Group, accounting for 42.11% of the group, close to the highest level in history, becoming a heavy weight around the overall sales performance of GAC Group.
However, GAC Toyota is not resting easy, due to the product quality defects manufactured by the vehicle engine ignition coil, on January 27, the company announced a recall of some Of the Ralink cars produced between April 8, 2020 and November 19, 2021, a total of more than 160,000 vehicles. People are worried about the fast-growing manufacturing quality of GAC Toyota.
In 2021, GAC Toyota has carried out several large-scale recalls due to defects in product quality. Although this is a responsible behavior for consumers, it does reflect the problems existing in GAC Toyota, and the performance growth rate is very important in the short term, and in the long run, it is more important to ensure the quality and image of the company's products.
In contrast, GAC Honda has obviously been pulled apart by GAC Toyota, with a single month sales gap of more than 20,000 vehicles, and the year-on-year growth rate of GAC Honda is only 1.11%, dragging down the overall growth rate of GAC Group, but from the perspective of new product planning, GAC Honda still has the potential to increase volume.
2) What is the operation behind the two autonomous full-line growth?
Judging from the latest issue of the production and marketing express, compared with the Japanese joint venture brands, the recovery momentum of the two independent brands under the GAC Group is more obvious.
Although from the perspective of single-month sales, GAC Passenger Vehicle and GAC Aeon accounted for only 20% of the group's total sales, the sales volume of the two in January this year increased by 6.29% and 117.43% respectively, especially in the almost unchanged month-on-month changes of the two Japanese joint ventures, the two independent brands achieved an increase of 13.73% and 10.56% respectively.
However, here we have to add that in the two-month production and marketing express report at the end of 2021, GAC Aian has appeared in the phenomenon of "production and sales inversion" for two consecutive months, and the month-on-month growth rate in December has suddenly turned from positive to negative; coincidentally, GAC passenger cars have also increased significantly in the last month of last year, but sales have also turned from increase to decline.
Combined with gazc's latest January production and sales express data, it seems to confirm people's speculation about its "Hidden sales" at the end of last year.
Although this kind of operation was not too inappropriate, it is not difficult to see from the decline in the stock price of GAC Group after the release of the last production and marketing express report that the capital market does not eat this set.
3) When it comes to joint ventures, it is Japanese, and don't forget about them
In fact, the rumors of the change in the stock ratio mentioned in the title refer to two other joint venture companies under the GAC Group: GAC Fiat Chrysler (hereinafter referred to as Guangfik, the same below) and GAC Mitsubishi. In mid-to-late January, there were media reports that the joint venture share ratio of GAC Mitsubishi and Guangfiq may change.
Although GAC Group later debunked the rumors of GAC Mitsubishi's share ratio adjustment, and then explained the information on the change of Guangfiq's share ratio displayed on the official website of Stellantis Group in the form of an announcement, in fact, the two parties did not sign a formal agreement on equity adjustment. But these two events made the stock price, which originally rose with a beautiful performance forecast in early January, instantly enter a downward channel.
From the perspective of monthly production, Guangfeik has become the most non-existent joint venture of GAC Group, and its production of 785 vehicles has been almost equal to the "other" item in the production and sales express.
Although GAC Mitsubishi's monthly production and sales data can be maintained at a level close to 4,000 vehicles, TA is also the only sub-sector of the GAC Group where production and sales have declined year-on-year, and it is not even comparable to "other".
Although the performance of Guangfeik and GAC Mitsubishi in terms of sales seems insignificant, there is still great uncertainty about what kind of feedback the capital market will give to the changes in the shareholding ratio of such joint ventures after the withdrawal of Dongfeng and the reopening of Yueda and Kia.
In particular, the gac group's "leave a living mouth" in the announcement of the announcement of the change in the share ratio of Guangqi Group and the reduction of gazc Mitsubishi's R&D investment in the past year have attracted another wave of unusual attention from the two joint ventures in the capital market.
After all, without TA, it means that in the short term, the sales performance of GAC Group can only be seen in the performance of two Japanese joint ventures, of course, plus the good performance of GAC Aean.
For 2022, GAC Group aims to increase production and sales by 15% year-on-year, that is, to increase by about 320,000 units from last year. Judging from the production and marketing structure in January, this goal is not out of reach.
However, let's go back to the two issues mentioned at the beginning, this production and marketing express report is indeed called the "opening red" of GAC Group, but before that, concerns about the joint venture equity of Guangfeik and GAC Mitsubishi will continue to ferment.
After all, before the independent brand really carries the banner, no one wants to see the GAC Group pin its hopes on the two joint ventures of GAC Honda and GAC Toyota. At the same time, if GAC Group repeats the operation of 2021 Sales in 2021, it is expected that the capital market will further lose patience with it.
In any case, as the first traditional state-owned large-scale automobile group to issue a production and sales bulletin at the beginning of the year, the confidence conveyed by GAC Group and its own efficiency are very worthy of recognition. With the recent release of production and sales express reports by major listed automobile companies, who can achieve a real "opening"? Exciting.