"In 2022, the auto market will be stable and good, and the annual production and sales performance will be better than in 2021." This is the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' forecast for the 2022 car market, although there is no specific data, but between the lines revealed that "the overall car market in 2022 will maintain a slight increase, the increase will not exceed double digits" meaning. When many car companies set sales targets for 2022, the increase is double digits, where does the "confidence" of these car companies come from?
FAW Group: 4.1 million units, up 17.1% y/y
Faw Group's main sales in the passenger car segment come from FAW-Volkswagen and FAW Toyota in the joint venture segment and FAW Besturn and FAW Hongqi in the autonomous sector. In the joint venture sector, FAW-Volkswagen (including the Audi brand) plans to achieve a sales target of 2 million vehicles in 2022 (cumulative sales of 1.85 million vehicles in 2021), and if the chip shortage is alleviated in 2022, FAW-Volkswagen's sales target of 2 million vehicles is not aggressive.
FAW Toyota's cumulative sales of more than 800,000 vehicles in 2021, 2022 to achieve annual sales of more than one million is a long-set goal, and in 2022 FAW Toyota will also introduce a new pure electric architecture (e-TNGA) under the bZ family of pure electric vehicle models, it is expected that under the power of the bZ family, FAW Toyota can successfully complete the sales target of 1 million vehicles.
In the autonomous sector, although FAW Hongqi did not achieve the goal of 400,000 vehicles per year in 2021, it is also gratifying to exceed 300,000 vehicles, and with the launch of subsequent new models, FAW Hongqi is expected to complete the sales target of 450,000-500,000 vehicles in 2022.
Faw Besturn only sold 57,700 vehicles in 2021, and the sales target of 100,000 vehicles in 2022 is also somewhat insufficient, if FAW Besturn can break out in 2022, FAW Group's overall sales target in 2022 will be stable.
GAC Group: 2.47 million units, up 15% y/y
In the gac group's joint venture segment, GAC Toyota will sell more than 800,000 vehicles per year in 2021, and plans to introduce pure electric vehicle models of the bZ family in 2022, and is expected to achieve annual sales of one million vehicles in 2022.
Although Guangqi Honda's cumulative sales in 2021 fell by 3.2% year-on-year due to the lack of cores, the annual sales of more than 780,000 vehicles still stabilized the situation. With the gradual easing of the shortage of chip supply, coupled with the introduction of the new pure electric vehicle model of the e:N series, it is not impossible for Guangqi Honda to sell 900,000 vehicles and challenge 1 million vehicles in 2022.
Autonomous sector, GAC passenger car 2021 cumulative sales exceeded 320,000 units, an increase of 10.35% year-on-year, GAC Aeon cumulative sales exceeded 120,000 units in 2021, an increase of 101.8% year-on-year, if in 2022 to continue to maintain the current growth rate, GAC passenger car + GAC Aeon in 2022 cumulative sales is expected to reach 600,000 units.
In 2022, GAC Trumpchi Shadow Leopard, GS4 PLUS, the second generation of GS8 and other models will continue to exert force, while GAC Aian production capacity expansion and mixed reform accelerated, 2022 AION S PLUS, AION LX PLUS and other new products will also be in 2022, so the possibility of GAC Group's autonomous sector (GAC Passenger Vehicle + GAC AE) to achieve cumulative sales of more than 600,000 units is not low. Comprehensive calculation predicts that even if only GAC Toyota (1 million units), GAC Honda (900,000 units), GAC Passenger Vehicle + GAC Aean (600,000 units), GAC Group can successfully achieve its sales target.
Geely Automobile: 1.65 million units, up 24% year-on-year
In 2021, Geely Automobile's cumulative sales volume will be 1.328 million units, and in 2022, it will sell 1.65 million units, that is, it will sell 322,000 more vehicles in 2022, achieving a 24% year-on-year increase. However, geely automobile's four major brands (geely, lynk & co, geometry, extreme krypton) work together, it is still possible to achieve.
Geely brand has Emgrand, Binyue, Boyue and other affordable "national models", these are the sales base of Geely brand, born in the CMA structure of the "China Star" family is the geely brand's high-end products, in line with the trend of the era of consumption upgrading. In 2021, the cumulative sales of the Geely brand will be 1.042 million vehicles, an increase of 3.51% year-on-year, and it is expected that in 2022, the collective efforts of the two series of products of "National Model" and "China Star" will continue to increase slightly, and the cumulative sales volume is expected to reach 1.1 million vehicles.
The cumulative sales of high-end brand Lynk & Co exceeded 220,000 vehicles in 2021, an increase of 26% year-on-year, and with the continuous delivery of Lynk & Co 09, the cumulative sales of the Lynk & Co brand in 2022 are expected to "guarantee 250,000 vehicles and challenge 300,000 vehicles".
In the field of electrification, Geely Automobile's annual sales of new energy and electrification in 2021 exceeded 100,000 units, compared with the overall sales in 2021, Geely's new energy and electrified model sales accounted for somewhat low, but in 2022, the delivery of the Extreme Kr brand will continue to increase. The X-oil hybrid version will also be launched in 2022, and in 2022, a new model equipped with Raytheon power will be launched.
Judging from a series of actions of Geely Automobile in the field of electrification, the sales of geely automobile's new energy and electrified models may usher in an outbreak in 2022, and in order to complete the sales target in 2022, the cumulative sales of new energy and electrified models of Geely Automobile in 2022 must at least exceed 300,000 vehicles, from 100,000 to 300,000 vehicles, can such an outbreak be achieved? It's hard to predict now.
Great Wall Motor: 1.9 million units, up 48% year-on-year
In 2021, Great Wall Motor's cumulative sales exceeded 1.28 million units, an increase of 15.2% year-on-year, while in 2022, it will achieve annual sales of 1.9 million units, that is, a year-on-year increase of 48%. Judging from Great Wall Motor's 2025 target (annual sales of 4 million vehicles), it is expected to set such a sales target for 2022, and it is not easy to successfully achieve the target.
In 2021, the cumulative sales of the Haval brand exceeded 770,000 vehicles, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year, and the tank brand relied only on 300 tank models to achieve annual delivery of more than 80,000 vehicles, and the cumulative sales of Great Wall pickup trucks exceeded 230,000 vehicles. Yipinjun gave an optimistic forecast, with the popularity of the lemon hybrid system, the cumulative sales of the Haval brand will reach 900,000 vehicles in 2022, and after the launch of the Tank 500, it will form a synergy with the Tank 300, and the cumulative sales volume will reach 150,000 vehicles in 2022, and the pickup truck will achieve cumulative sales of 350,000 vehicles in 2022 with the gradual loosening of the restriction policy and the change of consumers' cognition of pickup trucks.
In the field of electrification, euler brand sales exceeded 135,000 vehicles in 2021, an increase of 140% year-on-year, how many vehicles can Euler sell in 2022? Combined with the performance of the pure electric vehicle market, we can give a forecast of 300,000-400,000 vehicles. Weipai's cumulative sales in 2021 will exceed 58,000 vehicles, and with the blessing of coffee intelligence and hybrid systems, "three cups of coffee" will break out in 2022, and cumulative sales can give a forecast of 100,000-200,000 vehicles. If the salon brand is launched in 2022, it is expected to contribute 50,000 units in sales.
On the whole, Yipinjun gave a very optimistic forecast in order to enable Great Wall Motors to achieve the goal of 1.9 million vehicles per year in 2022, which shows that the realization of the goal has put a lot of pressure on the major brands of Great Wall Motors.
Chery Group: 1.5 million units, up 56% year-on-year
Chery Group's annual sales in 2022 was 960,000 vehicles, although the year-on-year increase reached 31.7%, but to achieve the goal of annual sales of 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, the pressure is also very large, in 2021 Chery brand cumulative sales exceeded 650,000 vehicles, an increase of 46.3% year-on-year, in order to achieve the 2022 sales target, Chery brand must sell 800,000-900,000 new cars (excluding new energy), do not know the arrival of Chery OMODA 5, Tiggo 8 Pro, Chery "M1E", Can it help chery brand achieve this goal.
The cumulative sales volume of the Jietu brand exceeded 154,000 units in 2021, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year, and the arrival of Jietu Dasheng (X-1) and Jietu T-X can help the sales of the Jietu brand reach what height in 2022? To achieve the target, Jetto must sell 250,000-300,000 new cars. High-end brand Xingtu's annual sales in 2021 exceeded 37,000 vehicles, an increase of 121% year-on-year, and it is expected that with the arrival of Xingtu's WIND-following ET-i and Xingtu Yaoguang mass production models, it is still possible that the cumulative sales volume in 2022 will exceed 100,000 vehicles.
Chery Automobile's total sales in the field of new energy were 109028 units, an increase of 144.6% year-on-year, and under the joint efforts of Chery QQ Ice Cream and Chery Ant, Chery New Energy must complete the sales of 300,000 vehicles to help Chery Automobile achieve its overall sales target in 2022.
BYD: 1.2 million units, up 64% year-on-year
Comparing the above car companies, it can be seen that BYD is the largest in terms of sales target growth in 2022, but careful analysis finds that this target cannot be described as radical. First of all, in 2021, BYD's cumulative sales exceeded 730,000 units, an increase of 75.4% year-on-year, and the increase exceeded 310,000 units. At the same time, in BYD's overall sales in 2021, new energy passenger cars are close to 600,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 231.6%.
It is worth mentioning that in BYD's sales target of 1.2 million vehicles in 2022, it plans to sell 600,000 pure electric models, plug-in hybrid models 500,000-600,000 vehicles, the popularization of DM-i technology and new cars based on e platform 3.0 gradually appear, coupled with the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, BYD's sales target for 2022 is more optimistic in the industry.
Write at the end
Every company has an account for the setting of sales targets. Careful analysis will find that affected by the supply of raw materials based on chips, in the sales planning of many car companies, most of the fuel vehicle business has a flat or slightly growing momentum, and the incremental part is mainly pinned on the new energy sector. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.521 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market has made many car companies see the hope of doing something in the new energy vehicle market in 2022. For example, Xiaopeng Automobile will deliver 98,100 vehicles in 2021, and the sales target for 2022 is to ensure annual sales of 250,000 vehicles, impacting 300,000 vehicles, an increase of 255%.