Although the sales volume of the domestic automobile market continues to grow, the development of the automobile industry still needs to face up to the imbalance between production capacity and sales. According to the latest statistics released by the Passenger Car Market Information Association, domestic automobile manufacturers sold 21.456 million generalized passenger cars (including mini cars) in 2021, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year. Behind the good news that the end of 3 years of continuous negative growth has finally turned into positive growth, "overcapacity" is still a hidden worry for the automotive industry. According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the total production capacity of passenger cars in the country in 2021 will be 40.89 million units, and the capacity utilization rate will be 52.47%. Although it is 4% higher than 48.45% in 2020, it is still in the range of serious overcapacity.
More than 70% of car companies have a capacity utilization rate of less than 50%
The Federation pointed out that in 2021, a total of 86 passenger car companies have sales, and the total production capacity of these enterprises is 37.038 million units, which also means that 3.85 million production capacity of other enterprises without sales is completely idle. Among them, there are 16 enterprises with sales of more than 600,000 vehicles, and the total sales of these enterprises reached 16.6106 million vehicles, accounting for 77.42% of the total sales; the total production capacity was 20.39 million vehicles, accounting for nearly 50% of the total production capacity, and the average capacity utilization rate was 81.03%, which was in a reasonable range.
In terms of capacity utilization, there are 11 enterprises with a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, basically running a three-shift system, of which 6 are wholly foreign-owned or joint ventures in China, and 5 are local enterprises. At the same time, thanks to the dividend of the new energy market in 2021, there are 4 new energy vehicle companies with a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, including Tesla. Among the remaining more than 70 companies, the capacity utilization rate is not ideal. There are 64 companies with annual sales of less than 200,000 and capacity utilization rates of less than 50%; even 29 companies have sales of less than 10,000 vehicles, and the capacity utilization rate is only 2.02%.
Jibang Consulting warned that overcapacity needs to be vigilant. Under the huge market demand in the future, the key to who can seize market share depends on the actual shipments. Overall, with the maturity of automobile consumption, the market head effect is obvious, and the survival of the fittest is gradually intensifying. At present, the larger the sales scale of car companies, the higher the capacity utilization rate, and vice versa. Smaller and lower-volume companies not only have serious overcapacity, but also perform poorly when the industry shows positive growth. Without fundamental changes, there is no hope of reversing the situation of overcapacity, and even facing the survival mark.
New energy is booming, and production capacity is still expanding
The corresponding measures of large overcapacity should be reasonably reduced, but as the new energy market sings all the way, production capacity is still expanding rapidly. The Association pointed out that there are still 10.46 million vehicles under construction capacity of enterprises that have production qualifications, and "most of the new energy vehicle projects under construction" will be completed and put into operation. According to public information, in 2022, many new automobile projects will be put into production, including the annual planned production capacity of 160,000 new energy vehicles in Zhangjiagang, the annual planned production capacity of FAW Toyota in Tianjin is 200,000 new energy vehicles, and the planned annual production capacity of 200,000 new energy vehicles in Changchun, Jilin Province.
According to the data of the Association, 3.326 million new energy passenger cars will be sold in 2021, while the dedicated production capacity of new energy passenger cars has been 5.695 million units, and the capacity utilization rate is 58.4%. "While solving the problem of overcapacity of traditional automobiles, the automotive industry must also prevent overcapacity of new energy vehicles." According to the Association, the existing production capacity of traditional automobile companies can also produce new energy vehicles in a co-line manner.
The reporter noted that in response to overcapacity, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document in March last year pointing out that excess capacity will be transformed or allocated, or even OEM, so that the excess capacity after transformation will serve enterprises with insufficient capacity and change towards the production capacity of new energy vehicles. According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", it is clearly stated that "establish and improve the exit mechanism of zombie enterprises, strengthen the supervision and inspection of the maintenance of enterprise access conditions, and promote the survival of the fittest". In addition, the Association pointed out that with the termination of subsidies for new energy vehicles on December 31, 2022, many car companies with overcapacity and insufficient sales will accelerate their elimination.
Text/Guangzhou Daily, New Flower City Reporter: Deng Li
Photo/ Guangzhou Daily, New Flower City Reporter: Deng Li
Guangzhou Daily New Flower City Editor: Mai Xiaoying