Introduction: The complex and changeable 2021 has come to an end, and the lack of core production is still plaguing many car companies. However, this year, the new energy vehicle track is extremely lively and fruitful, and the new forces continue to break their delivery records. Will this track still be sought after in 2022?
One of the most lively tracks in the capital market in 2021, the new energy vehicle track, has come to a key race point.
On January 12, 2022, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released statistics showing that automobile production and sales in 2021 will increase year-on-year, ending the situation of three consecutive years of decline since 2018. Among them, the annual sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million units, and the market share increased to 13.4%. The development of domestic new energy vehicles has generally shown a thriving trend, and the stocks of related upstream and downstream industrial chains have also risen sharply.
So, in the year that investors praised as the "first year of new energy vehicles", what are the achievements of the new forces car companies that strive to ensure the upward trend of China's overall car market?
1 Pattern mutation
In 2021, Weilai, Xiaopeng Automobile, and Ideal Automobile in the first camp of the new car-making forces have harvested a full harvest, and the delivery volume has entered the 10,000-car club and maintained a high growth rate; the Nezha Automobile, Zero-run Automobile, and Weima Automobile in the second camp are in hot pursuit and strive to join the head camp; and the Extreme Krypton Automobile, Lantu Automobile, and Extreme Fox Automobile, which are temporarily in the third camp, may also be Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which cannot be underestimated...
Returning to the three new car-making forces in the head camp, have they fulfilled the future expectations in the three quarterly reports?
In the third quarterly report, NIO, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile are expected to be 23,500-25,500 vehicles, 34,500-36,500 units, and 30,000-32,000 units respectively.
It turns out that their perceptions and judgments of themselves are very accurate. Nio delivered 25,034 units in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations; Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 41,751 units, far exceeding expectations; and Ideal Car delivered 35,221 units, which was also a windfall.
It seems that Weilai's conservative, Xiaopeng Automobile's self-confidence and the "moderation" of the ideal car are not empty.
If intuitively reflected in the revenue performance (without considering other special factors), the revenue of WEILAI, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile in 2021 will reach 35.611 billion to 36.341 billion yuan, 19.532 billion yuan to 19.932 billion yuan and 25.209 billion yuan to 25.799 billion yuan, respectively.
With a revenue scale of 30 billion yuan and the status of "big brother" in financial indicators, WEILAI seems to be able to maintain it, but if it is looked at from the perspective of net profit, WEILAI may not have an advantage.
After all, from the first three quarters, the quarterly losses of Weilai and Xiaopeng Automobile are gradually expanding, of which the former has a total loss of 1.872 billion yuan, the latter has lost 3.576 billion yuan, and the loss of ideal automobiles is gradually shrinking, with a total of only more than 600 million.
Therefore, from the perspective of the whole year, it is likely that Xiaopeng Automobile will deliver the most and Weilai will earn the most, but the ideal car will "earn" the most (the least loss), but it is also full of drama.
It seems that "big family" is not all good things, only one model of the ideal car is not fragrant?
Of course, this is only a phased result, and it may be that which one is still burning money and holding back the big move. For example, from the perspective of R&D investment, in the first three quarters of last year, Weilai and Xiaopeng Automobile were around 2.7 billion yuan, while the ideal car was slightly inferior, about 2 billion yuan.
In addition, from the perspective of stock market performance, in this magical year, Weilai's stock price fell by 35%, and its market value lost 160 billion yuan; while Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, whether it is US stocks or H shares, the stock price and market value are double harvests.
Among them, Xiaopeng Automobile closed at $50.33 per share as of December 31, 2021, which is far ahead of WEILAI's $31.68 and Ideal Automobile's $32.1.
It seems that in the capital market, it is still very important to pay attention to the hard indicator of delivery. From the perspective of annual sales, Xiaopeng Automobile is still in a leading state, and it should be able to break through 100,000 vehicles as soon as possible; moreover, the capital market also depends on expectations, and Xiaopeng Motors, which has completed the A round of financing to engage in flying cars, seems to exude more attractiveness.
2 The track is getting more and more crowded, and Yangguan Road is still a canoe bridge
All of the above are prologues, the 2022 New Year bell has sounded, and the more competitive journey has begun.
In the context of the joint release of documents by the four ministries and commissions to clarify that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and new energy vehicle companies that are inseparable from the national policy have responded immediately.
On the day of the release of the new policy, Tesla took the lead in officially announcing that the Model3 rear-wheel drive version was raised by 10,000 yuan, and the ModelY rear-wheel drive version was raised by about 20,000 yuan; on the 11th, Xiaopeng Motors also announced that the flagship sedan P7 series rose by 4300-5900 yuan, and the prices of P5 and G3i were also raised...
Speaking of price, among the three car-making forces, Xiaopeng Automobile covers the largest range, the ideal car is dead to 300,000 levels, Weilai is holding high, it is difficult to have an eT5 down to less than 300,000 yuan, but it is tough with the market veteran Edamame 3.
Can this new model, which has not yet been on the market for a full year, do it do the Model 3, which has already sold more than 1 million units worldwide? I'm afraid it's harder.
In 2022, the new energy vehicle track will be more "crowded" and will be more exciting. Competing for the new energy track is an inevitable choice for traditional car companies and new car-making forces. On the other hand, with the significant increase in domestic consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles, the sales of new energy vehicles in China may increase significantly in 2022.
For example, the Association originally expected to sell 4.8 million new energy passenger cars in 2022, but now believes that it should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million units, with a penetration rate of about 25%.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the new car-making forces represented by Weilai, Xiaopeng Automobile, and Ideal Automobile, in addition to aiming outward at Tesla, can not be "light enemies" inward, and the new energy business sector of traditional car companies has risen rapidly, according to the statistics of the Association of Automobile Associations, there are 14 companies with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles in December 2021.
Therefore, who will be the real "roll king" of the new energy vehicle track, it is still difficult to determine, is it from the new forces of car manufacturing, or the traditional car companies, or the sharpened technology IT giant? And how should we judge? Will the technology path change significantly? ......
It can only be said that shuffling and subversion are possible, and now it is only the completion of the "warm-up game". But one thing is for sure, the track will continue to be sought after in 2022.