New energy and high-end vehicles have become grippers, can independent car companies sprint to 50% market share this year?

At about 11:00 a.m. on January 15, 2022, the weather on the outskirts of Shanghai was still cold, and there were almost no customers watching the car in the store of a second-tier joint venture brand in Shanghai, and two or three salespeople in the store were brushing and looking at their mobile phones.

"Last year, we moved from the four- or five-hundred-square-meter exhibition hall next door to this small exhibition hall of less than two hundred square meters, where even the exhibition cars could not be put down, and the finance, after-sales service and even the toilets were all in the original large exhibition hall." Sun Fang (pseudonym), a sales consultant at the 4S store, told the first financial reporter.

The large exhibition hall next door has become a self-owned brand 4S store, and there are many groups of customers in the store watching the car. Sun Fang told reporters that the two exhibition halls were previously joint venture 4S stores, operated by the same boss, but in 2021, the boss retired one of the brands and moved them to a small showroom, which was given to the newly joined independent brands.

On the same day, a few kilometers away in the Volkswagen 4S store, the sales staff gathered at the front desk to chat, the store only a few groups of customers, in the face of the reporter who walked into the store, the sales staff said: "You see for yourself, if there is a problem, you can call us." ”

(At 8:30 p.m., there are still customers watching the car in a BYD showroom)

At present, the sales managers of Geely, Haval, BYD and other head independent brand 4S stores are obviously much more relaxed, and the new cars of these brands have seized the opportunity of consumption upgrading and the rise of the national tide, and orders are increasing every month. A SALES MANAGER ATD told reporters: "I have many customers who have been waiting for 6 to 7 months, and some have unsubscribed because they can't wait, but new orders are still flowing." ”

Since the end of December 2021, the first financial reporter has visited the 4S stores of many joint venture, independent and new force car companies in Shanghai, and found that the flow of people in the exhibition halls of luxury brands and new energy car companies is good, while the head joint venture car companies have not returned to the grand situation of the past year, and the second-tier joint venture car companies are gradually becoming "small transparent". With the blessing of new products, new technologies and new energy, Shanghai users are paying more and more attention to their own brands.

The "small clues" and "small trends" in the Shanghai auto market are also reflected in the 2021 passenger car sales data recently released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles.

In 2021, the top ten passenger car sales accounted for five seats

In the top ten wholesale sales of passenger car manufacturers in 2021 according to the statistics of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, independent brands occupy five seats, and in the top fifteen, the number of seats of independent brands increases to 7. The top 15 Chinese brands have basically achieved rapid growth rates, of which BYD's sales increased by 74.8% year-on-year, and SAIC Passenger Cars, Wuling and Changan Automobile also achieved a growth rate of more than 20%. From the overall market share, the market share of independent car companies in 2021 will be 44%, a new high in the past three years.

Among them, Geely Automobile once again sat on the top spot in domestic passenger car sales, with wholesale sales reaching 1.328 million units in 2021, surpassing traditional million-unit joint venture car companies such as SAIC Volkswagen and Dongfeng Nissan, and becoming the third in the domestic wholesale sales list.

"In the previous few months, manufacturers could not hand over the car due to lack of chips, and some new cars were delivered to customers with only a remote control key, but since December, the delivery has been much better." The sales manager of a Geely 4S store in Shanghai believes that the lack of cores has a great impact on Geely Automobile's sales in 2021.

In the case of geely automobile's low growth rate, Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motor narrowed the gap between Geely Automobile and Geely Automobile. In 2021, Great Wall Motor's sales reached 1.281 million units (including 233,000 pickup trucks), an increase of 15.2% year-on-year, a record high; Changan Automobile's year-on-year sales reached 1.193 million units, an increase of 22.3% year-on-year.

BYD, Chery Automobile and SAIC Passenger Vehicles, the second echelon of traditional independent brands, also achieved rapid sales growth. BYD's passenger car sales in 2021 reached 735,000 units, an increase of 74.8% year-on-year, the fastest growing among all domestic traditional car companies; Chery Automobile's sales volume was 962,000 units, an increase of 31.7% year-on-year; SAIC Passenger Car sales reached 801,000 units, an increase of 21.72% year-on-year, a record high.

"BYD and Chery's sales growth rate is very fast. BYD's sales rose sharply last year, mainly by seizing the opportunity of the outbreak of the new energy market. Chery's big help came from overseas, and its export performance last year was very strong. Cui Ye, product manager of a car company, told reporters.

BYD has become the fastest in China to switch to the new energy track of the car company, 2021 annual sales of BYD new energy vehicle sales have accounted for more than 81%, Qin PLUS DM-i and other models have been in a difficult to find situation, a Shanghai BYD Qin PLUS DM-i booking owner told reporters that his waiting cycle has been more than 10 months, but still did not mention the car. Chery exported 269,000 vehicles last year, up 136.3% year-on-year, with exports accounting for 28% of the group's total sales.

When the head of its own brand is growing by leaps and bounds, the head joint venture brand has shown a downward trend in 2021, although the north and south Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Dongfeng Nissan and other car companies still maintain a sales volume of one million vehicles, but the sales volume in 2021 fell by more than 9%; the second-tier joint venture brand is difficult to compare with the head's own brand in terms of sales, Beijing Hyundai has not yet announced domestic sales in 2021, and its sales in the first 11 months were 320,000 vehicles. Dongfeng Yueda Kia's annual sales of 163,000 units, a further decline year-on-year; DPCA, which owns both Citroen and Peugeot brands, only announced that its sales exceeded 100,000 units in 2021; GAC Mitsubishi sold 66,000 units, down 11.99% year-on-year; GAC FCA sold only 20,000 units, down more than 50% year-on-year.

"The product competitiveness of fuel vehicles is obviously less than that of independent brands, and there is no strong action in new energy vehicles, and the overall situation of second-tier joint venture brands is very unoptimistic." A marketing executive of a joint venture car company in Shanghai told reporters.

New energy and high-end vehicles have become the grippers of independent brands

New energy vehicles are an important reason for the collective rush of independent brand car companies.

In 2021, the new energy vehicle market will develop rapidly. According to the data of the Association, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 3.308 million units, an increase of 114.1% year-on-year, and the market penetration rate reached 17%, which far outperformed the market. In the top 15 retail sales of new energy vehicles in 2021, independent brands occupy 12 seats, and only two companies in the traditional joint venture car companies, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen, are on the list, and they rank relatively low.

"In the first three quarters of 2021, the domestic luxury pure electric vehicle market increased by 600% year-on-year, with the highest penetration rate reaching 15.3%, but the proportion of pure electricity of traditional luxury brands was less than 1%." Wen Fei, CEO of Sharon Zhixing, said in an interview with the first financial reporter.

At present, the layout of traditional joint venture car companies and luxury brand car companies in the field of new energy vehicles is relatively slow, and the "oil to electricity" models launched by some car companies have a large gap between product strength and independent brand new energy products. Cui Ye told reporters that most of the traditional joint venture car companies have not enjoyed the dividends brought about by the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market. The Association believes that in the long run, with the strong growth of new energy vehicles, independent brands will gain a more advantageous market position.

E-Car Research Institute said in the research report that the new energy progress of overseas brands in 2022 is still lagging behind, and the new energy strategy and the evolution rhythm of the Chinese auto market are very misaligned, and the market share of Chinese brands is expected to rise to 50%.

In the case of frequent "black swan" events, it shows the faster response speed and flexible system of independent car companies. Some joint venture brands have been greatly affected by supply chain shortages. From September to October 2021, when the lack of cores was more serious, the output of joint venture car companies including FAW-Volkswagen, Beijing Benz, and North-South Toyota fell by more than 20% year-on-year, and the output of Brands such as Audi, Volvo, and FAW-Volkswagen fell by more than 50% year-on-year in September.

When visiting a number of joint venture brand 4S stores recently, sales told reporters that some models are still in a "car-free" state. In contrast, self-owned brand car companies are also affected by supply chain shortages, but to a far lesser extent than joint venture car companies. In September last year, the output of leading autonomous car companies such as Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor, and Changan Automobile fell by less than 20% year-on-year, while byBYD, SAIC Passenger Car, Chery Automobile and other car companies increased their output year-on-year.

Cui Dongshu believes that the rigid system of joint venture car companies is the main reason why they are weaker in this round of chip crisis, joint venture car companies rely on first-level suppliers, while many independent car companies have a more flexible mechanism, through various ways to find resources, including direct contact with chip manufacturers to buy, so they can get more resources.

In addition, thanks to the trend of intelligence and electrification and the improvement of core technologies, some high-end models of Chinese brands have obtained new increments in the hinterland of joint venture brands and even luxury brands. "Almost half of the customers who come to the store will compare the Civic with the Lynk & Co 03, and there will be defeat and victory." The sales staff of a Lynk & Co 4S store told reporters.

In 2021, Lynk & Co's sales reached 220,500 units, an increase of 25.68% year-on-year, and the average selling price of bicycles reached an average of 158,000 yuan. FAW Hongqi's sales in 2021 reached 300,600 units, an increase of 50% year-on-year. In the process of visiting the Shanghai auto market, the reporter found that some of the products that represent the independent rush to the height have appeared a grand situation of "one car is difficult to find", and models such as Xingyue L and Tank 300 need to queue up to wait for the car.

Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy of Tsinghua University, believes that in recent years, automobiles have formed a number of independent brands with strong capabilities in electrification, networking, intelligence and sharing. Entering a new stage, if Chinese auto companies can seize the opportunity of industrial restructuring and adhere to innovation, they will accelerate the development of advantageous independent brand vehicles.