On the first day of 2022, as usual on the first day of each month, the sales of new power car companies arrived as scheduled. Different from the past, standing in the new year to summarize the results of the previous year, the new forces not only announced the December sales, but also handed over the 2021 annual report card to start the delivery story of the new year.
On the last day of 2021, a "notice" gave car companies a "propositional composition": in 2022, the new energy subsidy will decline by 30%. In the last year of subsidies, car companies must not only "squeeze their heads" to seize market share, but also plan for the future post-subsidy era: once there is no subsidy, how to sell new energy vehicles?
Year-end review of sales
In 2021, for new energy vehicles and new power car companies, it can be described as a bumper harvest year.
After three consecutive months of monthly sales exceeded 10,000, in December, Xiaopeng Automobile (09868. HK) sales reached a new high, delivering 16,000 units in a single month, an increase of 181% year-on-year. Cumulative deliveries in the fourth quarter reached 41,751 units, up 63% sequentially. In 2021, the total delivery volume of Xiaopeng Automobile reached 98,155 units, 3.6 times that of 27,041 units in 2020. Among them, the Xiaopeng P7 delivered 60,569 units in the whole year, accounting for 62% of the total delivery volume of the year; the annual cumulative delivery of the Xiaopeng G3 series was 29,721 units; after the start of large-scale delivery in October, the sales volume of xiaopeng P5 continued to climb.
The Ideal CAR (02015.HK) delivered 14,087 units in December, an increase of 130% year-on-year, with ideal ONE alone for a whole year, and in 2021, ideal cars delivered a total of 90,491 ideal ONE vehicles, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year. Since delivery, the cumulative delivery volume of Ideal ONE has reached 124088 units. The fact that a car is comparable to the sales of many cars of Weilai and Xiaopeng is enough to prove how "can play" the ideal ONE.
In 2021, Weilai (NIO.US), which was in a continuous state, delivered 10,489 new cars in December, a total of 91,429 units in the whole year, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year, doubling for two consecutive years. It is worth noting that WEILAI said it will deliver three new cars in 2022. Not long ago, WEILAI ET5 opened reservations, the scene is very hot, in addition, the much-watched NIO ET7 will also begin to deliver next year. With the recovery of production lines and the launch of new products, NIO's sales are expected to return to their peak.
Data source: official website public data
In the face of the gratifying achievements of the new domestic forces, some fans excitedly called Xiaopeng "tram ceiling", and some fans "look forward to the outbreak of Weilai 2022". However, in the face of the real new energy "one brother", there is still a gap in the sales of domestic new forces.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Tesla (TSLA.US) produced a total of 305,840 new energy vehicles worldwide and delivered 308,600 vehicles; in 2021, Tesla produced a total of 930422 new energy vehicles and delivered 936172 vehicles, about three times the sum of the annual sales volume of "Wei Xiaoli". Among them, model 3 and Model Y delivered 911208 vehicles, and Model S and Model X delivered 24964 vehicles.
Tesla's biggest rival in China, BYD, also handed over a report card on January 3: In December, BYD's new energy passenger car sales were 92,823 units, an increase of 236.4% year-on-year. In the whole year of 2021, BYD's new energy passenger cars will have sold nearly 600,000 units.
It is not difficult to see from the growth rate of several times that the overall market for new energy vehicles is hot.
According to the data of the Association, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November was 20.8% (18.8% in October), and the penetration rate from January to November was 13.9%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In November, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 37.4%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 19.4%.
Subsidies are falling
At the beginning of the new year, the new policy has also begun to operate.
On December 31, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which clearly states that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
On the same day as the release of the "Notice", the rear-wheel drive upgrade versions of Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y models rose by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively. Tesla said that the product prices are all starting prices after subsidies, which are derived from the pre-subsidy starting price minus the estimated subsidy amount for new energy vehicles in 2022.
On January 1, NIO released the 2022 car purchase subsidy plan, indicating that users who paid a deposit to purchase ES8, ES6 and EC6 before December 31, 2021 (inclusive), and whose cars were pre-existing on March 31, 2022, can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards, and the difference will be borne by NIO.
Xiaopeng also launched a similar "limited-time insurance policy", that is, from January 1 to January 10, customers who completed the deposit payment of orders are entitled to comprehensive subsidies, and the retail price is recommended to remain unchanged from 2021, that is, the difference between the state subsidy in 2022 and the decline of the state subsidy in 2021 will be borne by Xiaopeng.
Similarly, FAW-Volkswagen's official Weibo shows that the purchase of FAW-Volkswagen ID.CROZZ before February 28, 2022 can still enjoy the new energy national supplement in 2021.
The decline of subsidies means that individuals will bear more costs for consumers, and for car companies, it means that they will rely more on quality and word-of-mouth to sell cars in the future. In addition, there are views that the decline of new energy subsidies may have an impact on the sales of new energy vehicles.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, remained optimistic about the performance of new energy vehicles in the future, he said, "According to the new policy, the current framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will be relaxed from the original expected upper limit of 2 million subsidy scale, and the subsidy will be realized throughout the year." The policy will inevitably promote the surge in total sales of new energy vehicles in 2022, with new energy passenger cars adjusted from the original expectation of 4.8 million to 5.5 million, and new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million. ”