overview
In the short term, automobile production and sales have been greatly affected by uncertainties such as the epidemic. According to the China Automobile Association, the automotive industry sold 2.234 million vehicles in March 2022, down 11.7% year-on-year, according to the China Automobile Association. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control and supply chain, many car companies are currently in a state of suspension of production, which is expected to have a greater impact on automobile production and sales in April. In March, the prosperity of new energy vehicles continued, with sales of 484,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year, and a number of key new energy vehicle companies maintained rapid growth, affected by the outbreak of the epidemic and the demand for overdraft of new energy vehicle prices, it is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in April will be under pressure.
Tesla vs BYD, supply chain and production capacity will become the key to the global new energy sales crown. Both car companies have a lofty green dream, BYD's electrification technology has accumulated deeply, Tesla's intelligent vertical integration is high, and the average price and profitability of Tesla bicycles are temporarily ahead of BYD's auto business. In 2021, Tesla became the global champion in new energy vehicle sales with 936,000 units, and BYD sold 600,000 units, ranking second in the world. Recently, Tesla's Berlin plant and Texas factory have been put into operation, which will provide an important capacity guarantee for Tesla's growth in 2022, and will achieve at least 50% growth in 2022, reaching a sales scale of 1.4 million to 1.5 million units. BYD recently announced the suspension of pure fuel vehicles, a number of new energy vehicles on the market in 2022, the current orders in hand reached about 400,000 units, the annual sales target of 1.5 million units. The sales volume of the two car companies 1Q22 is close, and the supply chain and production capacity will become the key points that affect who the global new energy sales crown falls.
Short-term epidemic prevention and control may have a greater impact on automobile production and sales
Uncertainties such as the epidemic have affected the scale of automobile production and sales. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of the automotive industry in March 2022 was 2.234 million units, down 11.7% year-on-year, and the cumulative completion of 6.509 million units from January to March 2022, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year, was completed.
Due to the epidemic, many car companies have stopped production. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control and supply chain, many car companies are currently in a state of suspension. Tesla's Shanghai factory has repeatedly announced the suspension of production since March, and is still in a state of suspension. Weilai recently announced that due to the impact of the epidemic, its vehicle production has been suspended. SAIC's Shanghai plant and FAW's Changchun plant are also in a state of suspension. Great Wall Motor said that due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, many of its parts suppliers have been affected, resulting in limited production capacity of the factory. It is expected that the supply chain problems caused by the epidemic will have a greater impact on automobile production and sales in April.
The prosperity of new energy vehicles continued, and the sales of key new energy vehicle companies maintained rapid growth. Sales of new energy vehicles in March were 484,000 units (+114%). BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 100,000 units, an increase of 333% year-on-year; GAC's Eian sales exceeded 20,000 units for the first time, an increase of 190% year-on-year; Geely's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 14,000 units, an increase of 293% year-on-year. In terms of new car-making forces, the sales volume of WEILAI/Xiaopeng/Ideal in March was 9985/15414/11034 units, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 38%/202%/125% respectively.
The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in April may be under pressure. Mainly due to: 1) the concentrated outbreak of the epidemic in mid-to-late March, which had a certain impact on the subsequent supply chain delivery of car companies; 2) the price increase of new energy vehicles overdrafted part of the market demand in advance; 3) the epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai affected the arrival of customers.
In 2021 Tesla leads, and IND accelerates to catch up in 2022
Tesla became the biggest winner of new energy vehicles in 2021, followed by BYD. In 2021, Tesla's annual sales of 930,000 units became the global new energy vehicle brand sales champion, ANDD ranked second with 600,000 new energy vehicle sales, but if you look at the Chinese market, BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded Tesla's, becoming the mainland new energy vehicle sales champion. In 2022, with the increase in production capacity and the launch of new products, Tesla and BYD are expected to further widen the gap with other OEMs and further consolidate the leading position of new energy vehicles in the world.
Intelligent PK electrification, BYD intelligent acceleration to catch up
Intelligent PK electrification, BYD intelligent acceleration to catch up. Tesla is the world's leading intelligent car, with a strong intelligent software and hardware vertical integration capabilities, intelligent car related software and hardware are self-developed, such as automatic driving chips, full-stack self-developed automatic driving software, etc., in addition to intelligence, Tesla has a strong engineering capabilities, integrated die casting, 4680 battery, CTC and other key technologies Tesla are self-developed. As the world's leading new energy vehicle, BYD realizes self-development and self-supply of core components in the field of three electrics, such as blade batteries, e-platform 3.0, hybrid systems, IGBTs, etc. In the field of intelligence, BYD is in the catch-up stage, the field of AI chips, BYD investment chip company horizon, lidar, BYD and Soteng Juchuang (RoboSense) announced a strategic cooperation, autonomous driving algorithm, BYD and Momenta set up a joint venture, in addition, BYD and Baidu reached a cooperation, Baidu became BYD's intelligent driving technology supplier, providing BYD with mass production of mobile and berth integrated ANP intelligent driving products and human-machine co-driving maps.
Tesla bicycles are more profitable, and the BYD brand has achieved remarkable results
Tesla bicycles are more profitable, and BYD's new energy vehicle brand has achieved remarkable results. BYD's bicycle revenue in 2021 is 150,000 yuan, stronger than Geely and the Great Wall, with a gross profit of 26,000 yuan, and Tesla's bicycle revenue exceeded 300,000 yuan in the same period, and the gross profit of bicycles reached 80,000 yuan. IN 2022, BYD will successively launch models with prices in the price range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan such as Han, Tang, Seal, Sea Lion, frigate 07, etc., and will also launch a new luxury brand covering a price range of more than 500,000 yuan in 2023. Tesla's 2030 sales target is 20 million units, in the medium and long term, with the decline in costs, Tesla's price center will continue to explore, ANDD and Tesla's bicycle revenue gap is expected to continue to narrow.
Model strategy comparison: single product explosion VS comprehensive attack
Single-product hit VS all-out attack. Tesla with a young and fashionable design and strong brand premium ability, to create a single product hit, its main sales model Model 3 and Model Y are ranked in the top 3 of the annual electric vehicle model in 2021, while Tesla's production bases around the world can better face the global market. BYD New Energy adopts the strategy of pure electric and plug-in hybrid two-wheel drive, the richness of the product matrix is significantly stronger than Tesla, and the product market is based in China and gradually expands overseas industries.
Supply chain and production capacity will become the key to the new energy sales crown
The increase in production capacity will help Tesla's sales growth in 2022, and BYD's new products continue to add capacity expansion to provide strong growth momentum. Tesla 2022 no new car listed, 2022 sales main force is still Model 3 and Model Y, sales growth momentum mainly rely on increasing production capacity, its Berlin and Texas two super factories were officially put into production recently, the new factory using integrated die casting, 4680 battery and CTC and other key technologies, production efficiency has been greatly improved, of which Tesla Berlin factory production efficiency is about 3 times that of Volkswagen, Tesla said that its delivery volume will achieve at least 50% growth in 2022, This means that Tesla's sales in 2022 will reach at least 1.4 million to 1.5 million units. BYD is also actively expanding production capacity, there are currently a total of 8 factories (including under construction), including Shenzhen, Xi'an, Changsha plants, as well as Changzhou, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Jinan five new plants, in addition to production capacity, the abundance of models will also provide a strong impetus for BYD new energy vehicle sales growth, 2021 released by the Ocean Network series will launch a variety of pure trams and DM-i hybrid models. BYD's sales target for new energy vehicles in 2022 is also 1.5 million units, and the current orders in hand are about 400,000 units, and if the supply chain is stable, it will sprint to 2 million units. From the perspective of deliveries in the first quarter of 2022, Tesla and BYD delivered 310,000 units/286,000 units in the first quarter, respectively, with a similar level of delivery.
Supply chain and production capacity will become the key to who will spend the new energy sales crown. We believe that Tesla and BYD will continue to lead the global new energy vehicle market in 2022, the annual delivery volume of the two car companies may be relatively close, and the stability and production capacity of the supply chain will affect the final delivery volume of the two car companies. Tesla's Berlin factory and Texas factory were recently put into operation, and the release of production capacity will become an important guarantee for Tesla's strong growth, but at present, Tesla's Shanghai factory is in a state of suspension due to the prevention and control of the epidemic in Shanghai, and the Berlin factory is also facing supply chain risks brought about by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. BYD has sufficient reserves of new products, and will launch a number of models in 2022, with a stable sales base, but it is still facing the impact of insufficient power battery and vehicle production capacity.
New forces of car-making: The first quarter delivery is in line with expectations, and the new products in 2022 are fully charged
Under the background of lack of core and lack of electricity, the delivery volume of new car-making forces in the first quarter of 2022 is in line with expectations. Despite the pressure of rising prices of new energy vehicles and the supply side, the new car-making forces still maintained a high growth rate in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, NIO delivered 25,768 new cars, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year, and the first model of NT2.0, the ET7, was opened for delivery on March 28, with 163 units delivered in March. Ideal delivered 31,716 units in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 152.2% year-on-year.
In 2022, the new products are fully charged. Deliveries of NIO's first flagship sedan, the ET7, began on March 28, and the CAR ET5 and SUV model ES7 will be launched within the year. Ideal released its second model L9, compared with the ideal ONE full upgrade, is expected to compete with traditional luxury brands with a strong product force for the SUV market of 450,000-500,000 yuan. Xiaopeng flagship SUV Xiaopeng G9 is equipped with X-EEA3.0 electronic and electrical architecture, and the level of intelligence has been greatly improved.
New car-making forces: Autonomous driving gradually realizes full-stack self-research
The new forces of head car manufacturing have gradually realized the self-research of automatic driving full stack. The new models launched by the three new forces in 2022 will be fully upgraded in hardware, all of which will be equipped with NVIDIA Orin chips, and the perception hardware will be equipped with lidar, and the software will be realized or gradually realized full-stack self-research. From the perspective of the landing time of the algorithm, Xiaopeng Automobile has planned a relatively clear landing time, and Weilai and Ideal have not yet clearly announced its automatic driving landing time. Xiaopeng plans to land urban road navigation assisted driving in 2022, full-scene intelligent assisted driving in 2023, and gradually realize unmanned driving in 2026. Ideally, in 2021, the self-developed autonomous driving will be from 0 to 1, and the number of auxiliary driving functions will be large, and the cumulative driving mileage will grow rapidly. The pace of autonomous driving in Wei's research is relatively small and the ideal is late, and the new product launch in 2022 will accelerate to catch up.
BYD: All in new energy, new energy vehicles monthly sales exceeded 100,000 units
BYD's monthly sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 100,000 units. In March, BYD's new energy vehicle sales reached 105,000 units, an increase of 333% year-on-year, and monthly sales reached a new high. The 2022 BYD Han is officially launched, including BYD Han EV, Han DM-i and Han DM-p. ATD released the second model of the Marine Life series, the BYD Seal, at the end of March, and is also the first body battery integration (CTC) model in China.
Say goodbye to fuel vehicles, all in new energy. On April 3, BYD announced that it will stop the production of complete fuel vehicles, and the automotive segment will focus on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. From the perspective of BYD's share of fuel vehicles, only 5,049 units were sold in the first quarter of 2022, accounting for a small proportion, and after the complete suspension of the fuel vehicle business, BYD will fully develop the new energy vehicle business.
Tesla: Berlin and Texas gigafactories officially put into operation
More than 310,000 units were delivered in the first quarter of 2022. Tesla announced data, despite the impact of supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns, Tesla's deliveries in the first quarter of 2022 still exceeded 310,000 units, ranking first in the global delivery of new energy vehicles.
The Berlin plant and the Texas plant have been put into operation one after another, with production capacity covering three continents in Asia, the United States and Europe. In March 2022, Tesla's Berlin plant was officially put into operation, and Tesla's Texas plant was officially put into operation in April, and both new plants will start production model Y first. The Berlin plant is designed to have an annual production capacity of 500,000 units, followed by a 50GWh power battery capacity, the Texas plant will have a production capacity of 500,000 Model Y bicycles, and the Texas plant will also produce pure electric pickup trucks Cyberruck, electric truck Semi and electric supercar Roadster in 2023. Up to now, Tesla has built four gigafactories around the world, with a total production capacity of up to 2 million units.
Great Wall Motor: The epidemic has affected the supply chain, and the proportion of high-value products has increased
The epidemic affected the supply chain, and Great Wall Motor's sales fell in March. In March, Great Wall Motor sold 101,000 units, down 8.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume in the first quarter was 284,000 units, down 16.3% year-on-year, of which models based on lemon, tank and coffee smart brands accounted for 70.4%, and intelligent models accounted for 84.5%. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, many of the company's parts suppliers have been affected, resulting in limited factory production capacity.
Tank 500, Mocha DHT-PHEV launched, heavy new products continue. Tanks sold 8,922 units in March, up 78.3% year-on-year, and the Tank 500 was officially launched in March and is expected to start delivery in mid-to-late April, with orders currently of about 40,000 units. Weipai sold 4,755 units in March, an increase of 36.1% year-on-year, and Mocha DHT-PHEV hit the high-end new energy market of 300,000 yuan, delivering more than 500 units in the first month of listing. Pure electric brand Euler sales of 14264 units in March, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year, Euler black cat, white cat has stopped receiving orders, with the new model launched, Euler brand price center is expected to move up.
Geely Automobile: Short-term supply chain under pressure, Thor hybrid full force
Geely sold 101,000 units in March, up 1.1% y/y. Affected by the epidemic and supply chain in March, Geely failed to achieve the double-digit growth previously expected, and in the first quarter of 2022, Geely sold 326,000 units, completing 19.8% of the annual sales target of 1.65 million units. Geely's "China Star" high-end series sold 21,621 units in March, accounting for 28.6% of sales (Geely brand).
Raytheon Hybrid is officially listed, and the sales target for hybrids in 2022 is 150,000 units. Hoshikoshi L Thor Hi · X oil-electric hybrid version was officially launched, with cumulative orders of more than 8,000 units. Emgrand L Thor Hi · The X Super Hybrid model is expected to be officially delivered in June 2022. According to the company's plan, the sales target of Raytheon Hybrid in 2022 is 150,000 units, of which 100,000 units of PHEV and 50,000 units of HEV are sold.
Due to chip shortages and the epidemic, Extreme Krypton delivered less than expected in March. The Krypton brand delivered 1,795 units in March, with a total of 8,241 units delivered in the first quarter. Due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials, The price of Extreme Kr 001 will be officially increased on May 1, and the price increase has not yet been announced.
SAIC Motor: Joint venture sales declined, and high-end new energy vehicles went on the market
Affected by the epidemic, SAIC Motor's sales fell by 10.1% in March. SAIC Motor sold 443,000 units in March, down 10.1% year-on-year, and is expected to be mainly affected by the outbreak of the Shanghai epidemic in March, of which SAIC Passenger Car sales were 62,000 units, up 7.3% year-on-year, SAIC Volkswagen sold 110,000 units, down 2.2% year-on-year, and SAIC-GM sold 89,000 units, down 31.4% year-on-year.
The performance of new energy is stable, and the Zhiji L7 Pro is officially listed. SAIC motor sold 192,000 new energy vehicles in the first quarter, an increase of 27.7% year-on-year. The high-end new energy vehicle Zhiji L7 Pro was officially launched at the end of March, priced at 408,800 yuan, and is expected to become a blockbuster model of domestic high-end new energy vehicles, driving SAIC's market share in high-end new energy vehicles to increase.
GAC Group: Aegean sells 20,000 units per month, and the joint venture two fields performed steadily
Aian's monthly sales exceeded 20,000 units, and the mixed reform plan landed. In March 2022, GAC Aeon's sales reached 20,317 units, with monthly sales exceeding 20,000 units for the first time, and the cumulative sales volume in the first quarter of 2022 was 44,874 units, an increase of 154.9% year-on-year. In March 2022, Vian implemented incentives for employees and personnel of the GAC Research Institute through a non-public agreement to increase capital, and introduced strategic investors, raising a total of 2.566 billion yuan, with a current post-investment valuation of about 39 billion yuan. GAC Aeon is about to launch a Series A financing and is seeking a listing at the right time.
The performance of the Japanese two fields is eye-catching, and the electric car is about to land. In March, the gac Toyota and GAC Honda joint ventures sold 97,000 units/ 77,000 units, up 41.0% / 21.5% year-on-year. GAC Honda's new electric brand e:NP was released on March 29, the first model e:NP1 is expected to be launched in the first half of 2022, and the GAC Toyota pure electric model bZ4X will also be launched in 2022
Prospect analysis
In the short term, automobile production and sales have been greatly affected by uncertainties such as the epidemic. According to the China Automobile Association, the automotive industry sold 2.234 million vehicles in March 2022, down 11.7% year-on-year, according to the China Automobile Association. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control and supply chain, many car companies are currently in a state of suspension of production, which is expected to have a greater impact on automobile production and sales in April. In March, the prosperity of new energy vehicles continued, with sales of 484,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year, and a number of key new energy vehicle companies maintained rapid growth, affected by the outbreak of the epidemic and the demand for overdraft of new energy vehicle prices, it is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in April will be under pressure.
Tesla vs BYD, supply chain and production capacity will become the key to the global new energy sales crown. Both car companies have a lofty green dream, BYD's electrification technology has accumulated deeply, Tesla's intelligent vertical integration is high, and the average price and profitability of Tesla bicycles are temporarily ahead of BYD's auto business. In 2021, Tesla became the global champion in new energy vehicle sales with 936,000 units, and BYD sold 600,000 units, ranking second in the world. Recently, Tesla's Berlin plant and Texas factory have been put into operation, which will provide an important capacity guarantee for Tesla's growth in 2022, and will achieve at least 50% growth in 2022, reaching a sales scale of 1.4 million to 1.5 million units. BYD recently announced the suspension of pure fuel vehicles, a number of new energy vehicles on the market in 2022, the current orders in hand reached about 400,000 units, the annual sales target of 1.5 million units. The sales volume of the two car companies 1Q22 is close, and the supply chain and production capacity will become the key points that affect who the global new energy sales crown falls.
Potential risks
Uncertainties such as the epidemic have a greater impact on the automotive supply chain. The impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, Jilin and other places will affect the automotive supply chain, which will have a greater impact on the production of complete vehicles;
The price increase of new energy vehicles has led to sales of new energy vehicles falling short of expectations. Chip shortage and rising upstream raw material prices will affect upstream supply and downstream demand, resulting in car companies' new energy vehicle sales falling short of expectations;
The high-end new energy brand building of car companies has not been successful. The newly launched high-end new energy brands of car companies may face the risk of low market acceptance, which in turn will affect model sales;
The penetration rate of high-end smart cars is less than expected. In 2022, models equipped with large computing chips and high-end assisted driving functions will land, and the sales of heavy smart cars may be less than expected, and the penetration rate of high-end assisted driving functions is less than expected.
*Source/Ping An Securities Research Institute