Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
In the last week of 2021, the auto industry ranked in the bottom ten of the 31 industry sectors, meaning that the money flowing into the auto industry is declining. However, the new energy vehicle sector (BK0900) index is still at a high level.
Not only does the capital market treat fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles differently, at the just-concluded 2022 market forecast summit, the China Automobile Association also gave different forecasts for the automotive market and the new energy vehicle market in 2022: "Passenger car sales of 23 million units, an increase of 8%; new energy vehicle sales are expected to be 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year." "So what is the significance of 5 million new energy vehicles?
From the perspective of car companies, the competition and elimination of the market in 2022 will be more severe. Bai Ling, an industry research expert in the Changan Product Planning Department, believes that "from 2019 onwards, the number of brands is decreasing year by year, and the proportion of new brands is also falling year by year. The proportion of brands with monthly sales of less than 1,000 vehicles and the demise is increasing year by year. This shows that the performance of the brand market that was originally in the middle of the market is getting worse and worse, and it is gradually marginalized or even eliminated. In 2021, due to the abnormal situation of chip shortage, the supply of TOP20 companies has declined to a certain extent, and the concentration of the market has also declined. In 2022, if the supply is improved, the market share that is robbed by the backward companies in 2021 may be snatched back by the head companies again. ”
When it comes to new energy vehicle sales, Changan predicts that it will rise to the level of 4 million vehicles in 2022, and the market share will be 18.9%, which is very close to the forecast of the China Automobile Association. In fact, whether it is the annual sales of new energy vehicles of 4 million or 5 million predictions, if placed before 2021, even at the end of 2020, most people will think that this is a fantasy, but at the end of 2021, some professionals think that the forecast is conservative.
Recently, professionals told the "Car Selection Network" that "in 2022, mini cars with more than ten degrees of electricity like Wuling Hongguang may sell 1.5 million to 2.5 million, and plug-in hybrid and range-extended electric vehicles can also sell more than 1 million vehicles, which is more than 3 million." Tesla and other car-making 'new forces' and so on divided more than 1 million vehicles, 5 million soon gone. I think the forecast of 5 million vehicles is less, and it may reach 5.5 million -6 million vehicles. ”
So the annual sales of new energy vehicles reach 5 million, what will be the biggest problem? I am afraid that it is still difficult for the industry to make profits.
At the market forecast summit, Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said: "The supply of raw materials and the price level of power batteries are two major problems that are difficult to avoid in the sustainable development of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of raw material supply, whether it is lithium iron phosphate or ternary batteries, the raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese required are not abundant in China, and the dependence on foreign countries is very high. As the price of raw materials rises is transmitted to the downstream through the industrial chain, a number of power battery companies have announced price increases. Many new energy automobile companies do not make money when their output has not yet reached a certain scale, and it is difficult to bear the price increase. From January to October this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles doubled, and the operating income doubled, but the whole industry was in a state of loss. "According to this, the loss of the new energy automobile industry in 2022 is a high probability event."
Despite this, the direction of the country's vigorous development of new energy vehicles is still firm. Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, proposed: "The strategic orientation of the 'double carbon' goal is an important promoter for the development of the new energy vehicle market. From the perspective of sustainable development of the city and energy conservation and carbon reduction, the transportation field will be a key area, and new energy vehicles are closely combined with technological innovation, industrial upgrading and expansion of domestic demand, so the next step from the policy perspective, will also form a promotion of new energy vehicles. The superposition of intelligent technology and new energy technology, the innovation of business models, coupled with the increasing demand for additional purchases, these factors will greatly accelerate the popularity of a new round of electric vehicles. At present, the proportion of additional purchase demand has reached about 50%, and new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, have also become the main target products for additional purchases. ”
Talking about the attitude of the capital market to new energy vehicles in 2022, professionals told the "Car Selection Network": "Most of the investors who lay out new energy vehicle stocks in 2021 have made money, and some investors in this track may belong to a more sensitive group, that is, they will rely on his predictive ability to find better growth in 2022, but now there may not be areas that have been tapped, and this wave of people may leave the market with profits." At the same time, as sales of new energy vehicles rise from 3 million to 5 million, the certainty of the development of this industry is increasing, and some new investors may invest in it. The first quarter of 2022 is the market change stage, in the future, the new energy automobile industry capital inflow is a high probability event, and the continuous rise of the new energy vehicle sector index is also a high probability event. ”
The views of the above professionals on the performance of the new energy vehicle market in 2022 are welcome to express their views in the comment area.
(Image source: Internet)