Editor's note| it's been said lately: "My lord, times have changed. In these words, there is both a slight fear of change and a nostalgia for the glory of the past. The "golden period" of China's automotive industry is really too dazzling. Many people wonder whether the successful experiences of the past can continue to be reproduced in the future; many people are worried about whether the so-called trend that is currently raging should really keep up. Dylan Thomas said, "Don't walk gently into that good night," but we're in the middle of a Good Night, and it's time to get out. Car Market Story launched a special plan "Out of the Good Night", which is the 5th article in the series, "Oil Car, Always Want to Be "Stubborn" for a while".
The opposition between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles will reach a "climax" at the end of 2021.
"Why everyone is still buying fuel cars now, I can't understand at all, how nostalgic it is to buy a fuel car, in addition to being able to smell a little gasoline, what else is good."
As soon as this word came out, it was widely spread on the Internet in an instant, and trams and oil trucks also opened the "scolding war" mode. Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, was drowned out by the insults of netizens for a while. The praise received by Weilai ET5 the day before was also silenced in a piece of public opinion.
Screenshot of Li Bin's interview
There are also people who support Li Bin and want to correct the name of the tram. Two days later, Shen Hui, CEO of WM Motor, posted on Weibo, "Traditional oil vehicles and smart electric vehicles should not be completely opposed sides, but if they can't go back, they can't go back." The determined tone also caused dissatisfaction among netizens. However, this "scolding war" raises some essential questions - what is the alternative relationship between trams and oil trucks.
Looking back at the streets of London in the 19th century, the car that had just appeared was not facing this situation. The road to be taken by electric vehicles at present may be the road that oil trucks have walked, and a long hard journey is obviously unavoidable. Experience tells us that trams and oil vehicles are not simply substitution relationships, and they also involve core issues such as replacement costs and habit costs.
It's not that new things are bad, but old things are good to use.
This may be something that Li Bin can't understand. Whether the user chooses a fuel car or a tram, it is the best choice based on the current conditions. For most users of "budget-conscious", it is really a bit expensive to use things like "feelings" to make decisions.
However, the development of trams is the trend of the times, and there are already obvious signs of replacement starting in 2021, as evidenced by the continuous increase in penetration. How long is left for the tanker?
#01
Advantages > shortcomings are the beginning of the substitution
Before Tesla entered China, the development of domestic new energy vehicles was mainly driven by policy subsidies, and taxis, online ride-hailing cars, etc. became the first batch of "early adopters". Many OEMs rush to eat this bowl of rice, but the B-end market volume is limited, and there are not many people who can eat this bowl of rice.
At that time, car companies, new energy related technology, technology is not perfect, purely for subsidies and "car". With such a mentality of "building a car", the product quality can be imagined. And why do consumers pay for it "brainlessly"?
At this time, the "catfish" appeared.
Tesla entered China strongly and used technology to open the second wave of new energy vehicles. Subsequently, a number of domestic new power brands such as "Wei Xiaoli" began to pour in, bringing electric vehicles in the true sense that are different from "oil to electricity".
Since then, a small number of private consumers have begun to turn their attention to electric vehicles, and the first typical private "early adopters" have appeared. The industry also appears in the "after driving electric vehicles, do not want to drive fuel vehicles" statement. Of course, it is not excluded that this is only a one-sided statement of some car owners or manufacturers. It is undeniable that more and more people are paying attention to electric vehicles around.
In 2021, the strong penetration of new energy vehicles surprised everyone. According to the data of the Association, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in January-November reached 2.514 million units, an increase of 178.3% year-on-year. New energy vehicles are gradually getting rid of subsidy dependence and truly market-driven, with the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars reaching about 15% from January to November.
The private consumer market ushered in a period of rapid growth. Before 2019, half of all electric vehicles were sold to B-end users. But from 2020 onwards, this proportion will drop sharply to 30%, and in 2021 it will drop further to 23%. Private consumers have become the main buyers in the electric vehicle market.
"The core of the market recognition of electric vehicles is that the choice of products at the same price can provide consumers with an experience that exceeds that of fuel vehicles, and users are willing to accept some shortcomings of trams." Auto analyst Liu Ming (pseudonym) told the car market Monogatari, "Combined with the cost of power batteries, technology and other constraints, the main products of electric vehicles are presented in the structure of 'dumbbell type'. ”
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the penetration rate of mini cars and mid-to-high-end cars is relatively high. In particular, mini-vehicles have reached the level of 99% and replaced the non-traditional motor vehicle market such as electric three-wheelers and electric bicycles. At present, the most obvious is that the high-end electric vehicle has the strength to compete with the same price of oil vehicles.
As Liu Ming said, "High-end sedans and SUVs combined with market prices, as well as cost and development difficulty, can match relatively suitable power systems, so that users can get a leapfrog experience, such as the ideal ONE, BYD Han's large space, or Tesla and other strong high driving performance." ”
From the user side, the purchase of such products is also mostly some additional car owners. A Weilai prospective owner told the car market monogatari, "There is already a fuel car at home, and the new indicators want to experience the electric car." ”
Sales trend of new energy vehicles in 2021
Source: Multiplying Association
In short, the substitution of trams for oil vehicles has ushered in an inflection point, especially in the stage of market-oriented competition.
Private non-restricted purchases, high-tier cities, and high-end price ranges have all increased significantly, and the demand for private non-restricted purchases of market-oriented products is accelerating.
"I expect market substitution to be a continuous, high-speed process, and growth in 2021 is the beginning of a sustainable high-growth process." Liu Ming said.
#02
Product strength determines the speed of substitution
High-end SUV list: Tesla Model Y, Ideal ONE, NIO ES6 are impressively listed
The prologue has begun, and the drama is not far away.
Open the official website of the Association of Rides, in the ranking list of major market segments, the sales ranking of high-end SUVs in the first 11 months is extremely eye-catching.
Among the top 10 models, electric vehicles have won 3 seats, of which Tesla Model Y is second only to BMW X3, followed by Ideal ONE (fifth), and Nio ES6 (tenth). It is worth mentioning that in November alone, Tesla Model Y and Ideal ONE ranked in the top two of the list. There are already many new energy products that have gained a firm foothold in the market.
"However, the private demand for the transformation of new energy compact cars is an important way for the long-term development of new energy." Li Bingyang, director of the market data room of China Automobile Data Co., Ltd., said so.
The proportion of the personal consumption market is | Car Market Story Photo
From January to November this year, compact cars accounted for more than half of the proportion of individual sales at all levels of the market. In the new energy market, the proportion of compact cars to public is relatively high. This proportion accounts for only 20%, becoming the most difficult bone to gnaw in the process of "oil" to "electricity".
On the one hand, the price of most compact new energy vehicles is still higher than the price of similarly configured fuel vehicles of the same level, and the product strength advantage is insufficient, and the replacement cost is also high. On the other hand, the difficulty of solving the charging problem is also far beyond expectations, and various complaints appear frequently.
During the 2021 National Day holiday, the news of "queuing for charging in the highway service area" was on the hot search, and the problem of "charging anxiety" was in front of it. Some car owners revealed that it should have been an 8-hour drive, and it took 16 hours to reach the destination. In order to solve the above problems, car companies and related agencies have worked hard to find faster and more efficient solutions. The higher voices are "power exchange", "800V high voltage fast charging" and so on.
In addition to solving these problems, if consumers begin to pay attention to the advantages of these products such as power, space, and cost of use, then the replacement process will be accelerated. In other words, the market segments with advantages in new energy products will be quickly replaced. The specific rate of substitution depends on the product force gap determined by the technology.
For most user groups, their needs are all-scenario use, and they must be satisfied in all aspects of long and short distances. Some companies and institutions have conducted a lot of research, and finally concluded that users consider buying electric vehicles, ranking in the top 5 are safety, mileage, quality, comfort and power. In addition to this, they have to consider the cost of replacement.
"We need to further change and improve the three fundamentals and six elements. China's electric vehicles can all-round replace the era of fuel vehicles. Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operations of WM Motors, said. The three fundamentals and six elements refer to safety and quality, battery range and convenience of charging, intelligent driving and intelligent networking.
#03
First become the mainstream, then talk about replacement
When the fuel vehicle will withdraw from the market, there is no clear theory. Combined with the current market situation and policy evolution, there are already some judgments and predictions in the industry.
China clearly strives to reach carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060. On October 26 this year, the State Council released its action plan for carbon peaking by 2030. Some places have even set a timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, and the speed of substitution will also be different depending on the policies of different places.
Hainan took the lead in announcing that it will achieve 100% comprehensive coverage of new energy vehicles by 2030. The Beijing Municipal Passenger Car Indicator Regulation and Management Office also issued a notice a few days ago that in 2022, the proportion of passenger car indicators in Beijing will be adjusted again, and the ordinary indicators will be 30,000, and the indicators for new energy passenger cars will be increased to 70,000.
Car companies have also formulated relevant timetables. According to statistics, 24 car companies have issued electrification strategies and announced their electrification goals.
Not long ago, at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, six major automakers, including BYD and Mercedes-Benz, signed a pledge to phase out the production of fuel vehicles worldwide by 2040.
These policies or plans are only strategic assumptions. In order to truly successfully complete the replacement of trams for fuel vehicles, it also needs the active promotion of the market.
On May 20 this year, the China Petroleum Consumption Total Control and Policy Research Project released the "Research on the Exit Timetable of China's Traditional Fuel Vehicles" in Beijing, which comprehensively analyzed the exit time of china's automobile industry and proposed that China is expected to achieve a comprehensive withdrawal of traditional fuel vehicles by 2050.
"Globally, in 2030-2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream, the market share will exceed 50%, and by 2040-2045, it is likely that fuel vehicles will be banned (even including hybrids). By 2050-2055, the fuel vehicles in use may be basically obsolete. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told the car market Monogatari.
At this stage, the infrastructure of trams is indeed developing rapidly, and there are more and more high-quality products to choose from at various price points. But there is no doubt that the tram still has not reached the stage of PK with the oil car.
The direction of the electric vehicle is clear, and the road is tortuous. If it is placed in NIO DAY 10 years later, Li Bin will say this sentence again, and may not be so "scolding".
End
Add friends please note the company and position