In 2021, China's automobiles maintained a moderate growth trend, with domestic automobile production and sales reaching 23.172 million units and 23.489 million units from January to November, up 3.5% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively. Caambiz predicts that the total sales volume in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year; in 2022, China's total automobile sales will be 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, of which the sales of new energy vehicles will be 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles mark the leading low level of acceptance and development of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market. At the same time, the trend of Chinese cars going abroad has begun to appear, and the potential can be expected.
This year's automobile production and sales before the high and low, the lack of core inhibits production output, raw material prices rise, the epidemic repeatedly superimposed consumption growth slowdown led to greater downward pressure on the automobile market in the second half of the year. However, the demand for new energy vehicles is still strong, production and sales continue to reach new highs; the export market table needs to be bright, and the export market share has expanded from the traditional Asian market to the developed countries in Europe. Caucus expects a recovery in China's auto market next year.
First, China's automobile market will maintain a moderate growth trend in 2021
According to data from the China Automobile Association, domestic automobile production and sales from January to November reached 23.172 million units and 23.489 million units, respectively, an increase of 3.5% and 4.5% year-on-year.
According to CAAM forecasts, China's total auto sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, up 3.1% year-on-year, far lower than the 27 million vehicles expected in July this year. This is mainly because since the second half of the year, the problem of lack of core has become prominent, the terminal delivery cycle has been lengthened, and the purchase price has risen, which has affected the demand for automobiles.
Automobile consumption has entered a year-on-year decline since May, and the decline continued in the second half of the year. The decline in domestic sales is the main reason, the downward pressure on the domestic economy in the second half of the year increased, the disposable income of residents fell, and the demand for automobiles, as a more flexible consumer goods, also declined.
In 2022, the automotive industry will maintain its growth trend and the growth rate will increase. Caambiz predicts that China's total automobile sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, of which new energy vehicle sales will be 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year.
Second, the demand for the automobile market in the second half of 2021 is weaker than in the first half of the year
This year's overall performance of the automobile is high and low, the lack of core inhibits production, policy adjustments, rising raw material prices and repeated epidemics have made the downward pressure on the automobile market in the second half of the year greater.
2.1 Lack of core inhibits production
In 2021, "lack of core" has become a hot topic in the automotive industry. The problem of "lack of core" has already appeared in the third quarter of 2020, and it has completely erupted at the end of the year, and it has intensified in the second quarter of this year. The shortage of chips has caused the terminal delivery cycle to be lengthened, and the purchase price of cars has risen, affecting the demand for cars.
Since November, the problem of lack of cores has been marginally alleviated, and the darkest hour has passed, on the one hand, because the chip production capacity put into production in the early stage has gradually entered production, on the other hand, the government has strengthened chip control and cracked down on hoarding.
2.2 Policy adjustments have made consumption wait-and-see sentiment strong
In addition, in recent years, the policy adjustment has been frequent, and the environmental protection requirements of automobiles have increased. Policies such as the switching of China VI emission standards and the "blue card light truck" are expected to bring about a wait-and-see consumption.
Table 1: In recent years, the adjustment of automobile policies has been frequent, and the environmental protection requirements of automobiles have increased
2.3 The rise in raw material prices has compressed the profits of car companies
Since the beginning of this year, automotive raw materials such as copper, aluminum, steel, etc. have risen sharply, and the rise in raw material prices has caused the cost of bicycles to rise by 2,000-3,000 yuan, which has greatly compressed the profits of car companies.
2.4 The epidemic has recurred, and the sales of various automobiles in the 2nd to 3rd quarters have declined simultaneously
Car sales fell significantly in April-August, mainly due to the repeated outbreaks in China and Malaysia. Malaysia is a major chip producer worldwide. According to the survey, the epidemic in Malaysia has affected the production of nearly 2 million vehicles in China, resulting in a decline in sales. In the 2nd to 3rd quarter, the domestic epidemic situation recurred, and the epidemic broke out again in Anhui, Liaoning and other cities, resulting in poor sales. The decline in commercial vehicles is mainly due to the impact of the National VI emission regulations for heavy-duty diesel vehicles on July 1 this year, and the impact of trucks is particularly severe.
Three. The export of new energy vehicles and complete vehicles has become two points in the industry
3.1 The demand for new energy vehicles has reached a new high, and the proportion of the industry has increased significantly
Although the overall pressure on the automotive industry in 2021 is relatively large, there is still no shortage of bright spots. The market demand for new energy vehicles is still strong, and production and sales continue to reach new highs.
In 2021, the total output of new energy vehicles will exceed 3 million units, and sales will be close to 3 million. From January to November 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 177% year-on-year in 2020, and the output increased by 180% year-on-year. In 2021, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in total sales also increased significantly, reaching 18%.
There are two main reasons for the strong demand for new energy vehicles in the market: First, people's acceptance of new energy vehicles has increased significantly. With the large number of popularity and fast convenience of charging piles, coupled with the continuous improvement of the endurance and product quality of new energy vehicles, people can see that the advantages of new energy vehicles are getting bigger and bigger. This year, a number of brands have launched their own new energy vehicle products to enter the new energy vehicle market. This also makes people's choice of new energy vehicles greatly improved; the second point is to advocate green travel in the context of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", with the introduction of a series of relevant policies supported by the state. People can enjoy some favorable policies such as operating subsidies, tax reductions and licenses and road rights. In Beijing, Shanghai and other places, the purchase of new energy vehicles can enjoy free licensing, as long as the application queue can be 100% shaken to the number. In some areas, new energy vehicles can also enjoy unlimited and non-prohibitive policies. This has also greatly increased people's demand for new energy vehicles.
3.2 Export market tables need to be eye-catching
Since the epidemic, overseas production has stopped, and China's auto export market has benefited, with auto exports to developed countries being the most obvious, and China's exports to Europe have soared.
This year's automobile import and export table needs to increase year-on-year, and the growth rate of the parts export market is leading. From January to November, the total amount of automobile imports totaled 84.94 billion US dollars, an increase of 21.5% year-on-year. Among them, the import amount of vehicles was 49.75 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year; the import value of spare parts was 35.19 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year. Automobile exports totaled US$99.82 billion, up 54.6% year-on-year. Among them, the export value of vehicles was 31.38 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year; the export value of spare parts was 68.44 billion US dollars, an increase of 35.4% year-on-year.
At the same time as the sharp increase in automobile exports, the export structure has also been adjusted, from the traditional Asian market to the developed countries in Europe. In the proportion of exports in 2017-2021, Europe's contribution showed a gradual upward trend, and has now become the second largest export market; Asia's proportion has dropped significantly.