Hello everyone, I'm Liu Boom
Yesterday was NioDay, Nio Day's major annual conference, and this NIO Day has several interesting differences compared with previous periods.
First of all, because of the epidemic, the number of participants in the original NIO Day was temporarily cut in half, so this time such a large-scale "gathering" can be held in Suzhou, which can be seen that enterprises and governments have made a lot of efforts to do so.
It should be known that Suzhou is not the main position of Weilai, so being able to hold this as scheduled can show that the company's ability to deal with the government is very good.
The content of this NIO Day is slightly thin, basically focusing on only ET5, so some car owners joke that this is not as good as calling ET5 Day. (The original words are: an et5 new car introduction + two false songs = 2021 NIO Day ... ）
But the good thing is that the release of ET5 has been a great success, at least from the discussion in the group I added, many car owners' wives originally did not care about Weilai at all, this time also felt that ET5 looked good, the deepest impression is that a car owner said in the group that he never cared about the daughter-in-law of the car has been applauding ET5.
It can be said that ET5 from the current feedback, the amount of walking is basically not a problem. Of course, there are also certain routines as a merchant, so today I will talk to you about this ET5.
Let's start with the et5 situation: the starting price of ET5 before the subsidy is 328,000 yuan, and the starting price of the BaaS program is 258,000 yuan before the subsidy. This price is still very powerful, on the one hand, many Weilai car owners have said that they have paid 2,000 yuan of intention gold, on the other hand, there is a very happy feeling, such as this Weibo post:
Of course, in addition to the good and bad, for example, the old users who did not buy NOP software at the time of the conference had the right to buy NAD services at a 30% discount, coupled with the official repurchase policy, many places did not explain, which led to some car owners expressing dissatisfaction.
Li Bin's reply was very fast, saying that the follow-up does not need to worry about everyone, so the owner who is ready to repurchase is waiting.
Let's elaborate on this 30% discount on this repurchase, because it is important for the decision whether to buy an old car now: NAD is equivalent to a premium version of NOP, which contains all of Weilai's autonomous driving functions. The current official price of NOP is 39,000 yuan.
Here's the problem: ET5/7 naked car to send noop Weilai officially did not say, but from the 6 and 8 need to buy software, it feels that sending NOP directly is not very realistic (the old owner will spray Weilai), so the probability is to use NAD instead of NOP, which means that it is very likely to enable such a function as Pilot Assist, you need to pay 680 yuan per month, which is equivalent to 2/3 of the battery BaaS price, good in three discounts that is 204 yuan.
This means that for first-time car buyers, they need to consider whether to buy a 6 or 8 with NOP (ET5 will wait for September next year anyway) to offset the cost of NAD.
In short, here I am still more concerned, because this should be the first monthly payment system software provided by independent brands with their own research and development, if this thing is recognized, it means that there is no self-developed automatic driving car companies, which will greatly affect the valuation of the company itself, and the follow-up of various other paid monthly subscription services will also have access opportunities.
Let me start by saying from the user's point of view:
What are the highlights of ET5 for users?
There are three main aspects, the first is the appearance + the previous Weilai style of completely different colors attracted a lot of female users, the second is the configuration level of many configurations from THE ET7 up and down, such as electric suction doors, such as lidar, such as equipped with four NVIDIA DRIVE Orin chips, a single hashrate 254TOPS, these are the same as ET7. The third is equipped with VR equipment, and special VR glasses will be introduced in the future.
But from a product perspective, the ET5 also has some regrets:
First of all, in terms of endurance, the 700 kilometers advertised by ET7 are NEDC standards, and the 550km, 700, and 1000km advertised by ET5 are CLTC standards, although this standard is "advanced" than NEDC, but in fact, many cars have found that they can run farther than NEDC according to CLTC standards after testing.
To put it bluntly, the CLTC standard is more "water" than THE NEDC, in fact, if the NEDC spring and autumn open 20% off, then the CLTC will be a 7.5 discount.
However, Weilai has a power exchange system, so this hard injury is insignificant for ET5.
From the pricing-cost point of view, Weilai has also cut a lot of "traditional" configurations, such as the body from a high proportion of aluminum alloy to steel and aluminum mix, HUD even the option is not given a bit of a pity, the empty suspension is not optional, and then the double glass has also been cut, if you really mind these configurations, you can look at the ET7 from 448,000.
—— Compared with ET7, the difference of 120,000 yuan, and the difference in configuration "necessity" is not very strong, which makes ET5 very fragrant.
Interestingly, Li Bin also mentioned that the goal of ET5 is "two 3s", that is, the official has publicly announced that the competitor models of ET5 are Tesla Model 3P and BMW 3 Series, and this obvious goal declaration I have not had before.
Obviously, from Li Bin's point of view, Weilai will try to challenge Tesla next and start actively attacking the basic disk (34C) of the BBA.
An interesting detail is that Weilai's BaaS is a permanent battery rental program, and many people will feel that although they started to save 70,000 yuan, it is not cost-effective to pay 980 yuan every month after that. For some fuel car owners, this matter will think from another perspective: if the owner's monthly regular fuel consumption exceeds the monthly rent of BaaS, intuition tells him that it is worth using BaaS.
There is a little reminder here, that is, many people will not react if they buy other brands of electric vehicles, or do not use the BaaS solution, they do not have to consider the problem of refueling consumption. So for people who plan to consider ET5, the key to choosing BaaS is not in the cost of refueling, but in how long you plan to drive this car, and BaaS is cost-effective within 5 years.
In addition, ET5 can be replaced, and its own energy replenishment experience must be better than other brands.
In terms of configuration, I and several car owners have briefly chatted about ET5, of which Xiaopeng P7 owners said that their car suddenly felt bad, and there were also ET7 booked owners who returned the list and turned their heads to set ET5. However, considering that the first cars will wait for delivery next September, there will still be some variables in the future.
The most interesting thing is that I met a Weilai car owner at the Small Orange Charging Station, his ES6 is a new purchase, and he also watched NIO Day, ET5 is definitely under consideration, these are not the focus.
The point is that the owner of the industry and radar has a certain relationship, he himself was a golf GTI owner before, when asked why he bought Weilai, he said that he paid attention to it for such a long time, and felt that Weilai is basically "mature" now and can buy.
ET5 should allow more fuel car owners to switch to new energy.
Having said that from the user's point of view, let's say it from a business point of view:
Next, ET5 will not be a hit, because although ET5 can indeed play with Tesla Model 3P in terms of performance configuration and indicators, what we need to know is that although the user groups of ET5 and Model 3P are different, it is difficult for both sides to really dig each other's corners, but there is no doubt that from an industry point of view, the next Tesla is out of the card.
To know that Tesla's biggest trump card at present, is to reduce prices, and the first batch of ET5 deliveries are expected to be around September 28 next year, the gap period in the middle is still relatively long.
For Tesla, although the recent price increase in various accessories in the supply chain has led to Tesla's price increase, from a long-term point of view, in order to digest the production capacity of 550,000 units in the Shanghai factory, coupled with the fact that there is not much need to export to Europe after the subsequent Berlin factory is built, the standard endurance version is inevitable to drop to more than 200,000.
From the product level to consider, there are now two cars, 255,600 standard endurance version and 339,900 Performance version, there is a difference of 80,000 in the middle, empty a gear, so the strategy behind Tesla can be:
Conservative operation: the price of the two cars remains unchanged, the rear-drive long endurance version is re-listed, priced at 279,000 yuan (after subsidies, leaving 1 optional space with 8,000 yuan), CLTC endurance is estimated to have a 720+km.
A more radical way to play is: the standard endurance version is reduced to about 230,000, the price of the long-endurance version is increased by about 260,000, and the price of the P version is reduced to less than 300,000, which means that the basic disk of the BBA will really be slowly uprooted by the new forces.
This is not a joke, because from the BBA and Volkswagen's recent wave of operations, their most basic pricing ideas for products are still stuck in the era of fuel vehicles.
The most difficult part is that if the BBA prices its own new energy vehicle products to the same as the new forces, then its original price system will collapse, such as BMW's iX3 car, which is equal to the electrified X3 in terms of specifications, so its official guidance price can only be on par with the X3.
But the problem is that at this price point, the iX3 is basically exploded by the new forces at the same price, and the result is that for the sake of sales, BMW has given the iX3 an official price cut, and now there are not low offers, so it has achieved 3-4k sales per month - so the most embarrassing part of the BBA is that they can't move too much.
There is also the problem of system differences, which we will say later.
Finally, from an investment perspective:
The topic is still back to the ET5 itself, technically ET5 has another highlight, that is, it uses a 180kW silicon carbide electric drive system, which basically means that the SiC is going to accelerate on the car. Wolfspeed in the United States has begun to build factories and mass production, and it is believed that the domestic supply chain will quickly keep up.
Once the cost of SiC can be rolled down by the country, it means that in the high-end model, there will be a wave of SiC replacement for IGBT, and the needs and opportunities in this do not need me to say that you understand.
In addition to SiC, we should also note that one of the selling points of ET5 is AR, I said before that everyone will find ways to roll up in the field of smart cockpits, although no HUD is quite surprising to me, but after more AR, it not only means that related equipment is on the car, but also means that the car also begins to have the concept of "meta-universe".
ET5 this volume of cars use the same Nvidia autopilot chip as ET7, and Desay SV related, the probability is still supplied by Desay SV.
The screen is a 12.8-inch AMOLED central control screen, the resolution is as high as 1,728 *1,888,100,000:1 ultra-high contrast ratio, 100% NTSC full color gamut, in addition to photovoltaics, LED-related fields will actually begin to be applied on a large scale in cars, but this piece I have not studied much.
Weilai's release of ET5 this time is so much to talk about.
Weilai itself due to the listing of U.S. stocks, the policy risk between China and the United States is also relatively large, even if the follow-up completion of the Hong Kong stock listing, in the case of the U.S. stock market began to prepare for interest rate hikes, Hong Kong stocks must be the first wave of blows, so it is difficult for me to make any judgment at present.
Finally, one of the explosive news this week is that Toyota and Lexus have taken out 15 pure electric concept cars in one go, and there is a picture and a truth:
You know, in all the countries with independent automobile industries, the least active in the pure electric line is Japan and South Korea, of which Japan is more inclined to push hydrogen fuel cell technology.
However, it is worth noting a detail in the figure:
The tires have sunk to the ground, and to be honest, this time it really has a bit of a evergrande car flavor.
There is also a more powerful picture:
This joint venture company is different from the past, in the past, foreign companies provided technology, and this, BYD provided related technology.
Just talk about so much, I also paid 2,000 yuan, to see how The car companies such as Xiaopeng, Extreme Krypton, and Tesla are still looking forward to the ET5 card.
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